Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1217 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions in place at all three TAF sites and will remain so
through much of the night. One area of thunderstorms will impact
KPVW before a second round develops that could impact all three
TAF sites in the early morning hours. Ceilings will remain MVFR
through the night with a brief improvement into VFR in and around
storms, but fall back to MVFR after storm passage. This will
continue until dryer air mixes in from the west mid Wednesday
morning and helps to rapidly erode any cloud decks. Next issue
will be strong southwest to west wind that will develop as a storm
system moves over the region, expect speeds in the 20 to 30 mph
range with some higher gusts. Wind speeds will rapidly decrease
after local sunset with VFR conditions into Thursday morning.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017/

AVIATION...
Moist low level southeast flow will precede thunderstorm chances
developing later in the night as a strong upper level low pressure
system over southern Arizona moves into western New Mexico. Low
clouds are likely to redevelop by late evening or in the early
morning hours, while best thunder chances spread through KLBB and
KPVW between 09-12z and KCDS 11z-15z. These storms could become
quiet robust so intensity and visibility may change if stronger
storms approach. Drier southwest flow will develop mid morning
KLBB and KPVW. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Severe weather and potential for heavy rain punctuate the near
term today. The stationary upper low that has been over Baja
California and the Sea of Cortez the last 36 hours or more finally
appears to be picking up some eastward momentum. Diffluent flow
has been supporting terrain-induced convection across northern New
Mexico through the day. Thunderstorms have begun to fire further
south down the spine of the Sacramentos and Guadalupes. However,
steering flow remains pretty much oriented south to north, so for
a while at least this activity should stay to our west. We will be
looking for the potential for convection to build southeastward
from Pecos River valley of southeast New Mexico along an axis of
differential heating that has occurred on the interface of the
mostly clear sky to the southwest with the stratus that has been
in place through the day across the South Plains. It is that
development that would have a better chance of impacting the
western South Plains early in the period. Secondarily would be any
supercells that are able to form across southeastern New Mexico.
Progged Bunkers right-moving supercell motion is to the northeast
at 30-35 kts. A tornado potential will exist with the backed winds
across the South Plains.

Later tonight will see the potential for another round of storms,
probably more widespread than the evening round as the parent
upper low ejects across northern Sonora toward southeastern
Arizona. That piece may be what is appearing on water vapor
imagery across western New Mexico to northern Chihuahua southwest
of El Paso. Will maintain likely PoPs across roughly two-thirds of
the forecast area overnight. Finally, precipitable water near an
inch and a quarter and the potential for training with the nearly
south-to-north flow aloft that backs a bit with time support the
potential for heavy rain. Will monitor for the potential for a
Flash Flood watch through the evening.

The middle part of the forecast period still looks to be dominated
by a transient upper level ridge. Temperatures early in this
phase on Thursday and Friday will be in a post-frontal cool air
mass while Saturday will see warmer temperatures fueled by a
return of south winds and low level warm advection. This then
leads to the latter part of the forecast period and the potential
for a somewhat active sloshing dryline phase Sunday through
Tuesday. Cyclonic flow over the western CONUS helps support this
idea. This period is still too far out to work out the details
(such as a short wave trough that may eject across the central
High Plains Monday-ish) and have basically run with a slight
chance wording that favors the eastern half of the forecast area
each day.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

14/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1130 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017

TXZ021>044-101630-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1130 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
western South Plains mainly after 4 PM. This activity will
increase in coverage as it spreads eastward over the remainder of
the Caprock and into southeast Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains
this evening through the overnight hours. Supercell storms early
on may develop into clusters after sunset, with a squall line
potentially racing eastward across much of the outlook area late
tonight. The most intense storms will be capable of producing
baseball size hail, wind gusts to 75 mph, a few tornadoes and
locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The risk of scattered severe thunderstorms may persist across the
southeast Texas Panhandle into parts of the Rolling Plains on
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be requested this afternoon into
tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1055 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     HAIL             LITTLEFIELD             33.92N 102.33W
05/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       LAMB               TX   POLICE DEPT

            HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700182

SCOBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1058 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 PM     HAIL             MULESHOE                34.23N 102.73W
05/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       BAILEY             TX   PUBLIC

            HAIL SLIGHTLY BIGGER THAN A QUARTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700183

SCOBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1126 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     HAIL             5 ENE FIELDTON          34.07N 102.14W
05/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       LAMB               TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700184

SCOBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     HAIL             MULESHOE                34.23N 102.73W
05/09/2017  E1.75 INCH       BAILEY             TX   PUBLIC

            LOTS OF QUARTER AND SMALLER HAIL. LARGEST GOLF BALL
            SIZE. PICTURES AND REPORT VIA SM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700185

SCOBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1227 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MULESHOE                34.23N 102.73W
05/10/2017                   BAILEY             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER COMPLETELY COVERING HIGHWAY 84 THROUGH TOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700186

JORDAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
157 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

TXZ021-100730-
Parmer TX-
157 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARMER COUNTY UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 157 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bovina, or 12 miles southwest of Friona, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Friona, Bovina, Oklahoma Lane and Black.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
the Panhandle of Texas.

LAT...LON 3472 10252 3443 10252 3433 10290 3457 10305
      3458 10304 3474 10285 3475 10255
TIME...MOT...LOC 0657Z 239DEG 29KT 3448 10284

MCZ