Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017

.AVIATION...
Moist low level southeast flow will precede thunderstorm chances
developing later in the night as a strong upper level low pressure
system over southern Arizona moves into western New Mexico. Low
clouds are likely to redevelop by late evening or in the early
morning hours, while best thunder chances spread through KLBB and
KPVW between 09-12z and KCDS 11z-15z. These storms could become
quiet robust so intensity and visibility may change if stronger
storms approach. Drier southwest flow will develop mid morning
KLBB and KPVW. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Severe weather and potential for heavy rain punctuate the near
term today. The stationary upper low that has been over Baja
California and the Sea of Cortez the last 36 hours or more finally
appears to be picking up some eastward momentum. Diffluent flow
has been supporting terrain-induced convection across northern New
Mexico through the day. Thunderstorms have begun to fire further
south down the spine of the Sacramentos and Guadalupes. However,
steering flow remains pretty much oriented south to north, so for
a while at least this activity should stay to our west. We will be
looking for the potential for convection to build southeastward
from Pecos River valley of southeast New Mexico along an axis of
differential heating that has occurred on the interface of the
mostly clear sky to the southwest with the stratus that has been
in place through the day across the South Plains. It is that
development that would have a better chance of impacting the
western South Plains early in the period. Secondarily would be any
supercells that are able to form across southeastern New Mexico.
Progged Bunkers right-moving supercell motion is to the northeast
at 30-35 kts. A tornado potential will exist with the backed winds
across the South Plains.

Later tonight will see the potential for another round of storms,
probably more widespread than the evening round as the parent
upper low ejects across northern Sonora toward southeastern
Arizona. That piece may be what is appearing on water vapor
imagery across western New Mexico to northern Chihuahua southwest
of El Paso. Will maintain likely PoPs across roughly two-thirds of
the forecast area overnight. Finally, precipitable water near an
inch and a quarter and the potential for training with the nearly
south-to-north flow aloft that backs a bit with time support the
potential for heavy rain. Will monitor for the potential for a
Flash Flood watch through the evening.

The middle part of the forecast period still looks to be dominated
by a transient upper level ridge. Temperatures early in this
phase on Thursday and Friday will be in a post-frontal cool air
mass while Saturday will see warmer temperatures fueled by a
return of south winds and low level warm advection. This then
leads to the latter part of the forecast period and the potential
for a somewhat active sloshing dryline phase Sunday through
Tuesday. Cyclonic flow over the western CONUS helps support this
idea. This period is still too far out to work out the details
(such as a short wave trough that may eject across the central
High Plains Monday-ish) and have basically run with a slight
chance wording that favors the eastern half of the forecast area
each day.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1130 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017

TXZ021>044-101630-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1130 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
western South Plains mainly after 4 PM. This activity will
increase in coverage as it spreads eastward over the remainder of
the Caprock and into southeast Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains
this evening through the overnight hours. Supercell storms early
on may develop into clusters after sunset, with a squall line
potentially racing eastward across much of the outlook area late
tonight. The most intense storms will be capable of producing
baseball size hail, wind gusts to 75 mph, a few tornadoes and
locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The risk of scattered severe thunderstorms may persist across the
southeast Texas Panhandle into parts of the Rolling Plains on
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be requested this afternoon into
tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
750 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     HAIL             3 NW RHEA               34.70N 102.99W
05/09/2017  E2.00 INCH       PARMER             TX   FIRE DEPT

            HAIL STACKED UP ON ROOF.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700174

SCOBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
756 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     TORNADO          5 SW BULA               33.86N 102.70W
05/09/2017                   BAILEY             TX   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF TORNADO EAST OF ENOCHS. SEVERAL PHOTOS BY STORM
            CHASERS VI SM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700175

SCOBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
825 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             6 NNE BULA              33.99N 102.60W
05/09/2017  E2.00 INCH       LAMB               TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700176

SCOBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
829 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     FLOOD            3 NE ENOCHS             33.90N 102.72W
05/09/2017                   BAILEY             TX   STORM CHASER

            ROAD FLOODED ALONG WITH HAIL SEVERAL INCHES DEEP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700177

SCOBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
832 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 SSW SUDAN             34.03N 102.55W
05/09/2017                   LAMB               TX   STORM CHASER

            POOR CONTRAST PHOTO SHARED VIA SM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700178

SCOBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
850 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             2 NW SUDAN              34.09N 102.55W
05/09/2017  E1.25 INCH       LAMB               TX   STORM CHASER

            ESTIMATED FROM PHOTO SHARED ON SM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700179

SCOBB