Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
625 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Still have some pre squall line storms popping up with hail and some
winds. Just had a report come in from Nelson county of quarter sized
hail.  Other line is just along our border with JKL.

Main line has cut through roughly half of the forecast area, so went
ahead and cut out part of the watch box behind the line. Watching
the bowing segment over southern Indiana as well, but the FRH AWOS
site only gusted to 27 knots as the line went through.

Issued at 520 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Latest RAP mesoanalysis has not been handling the amount of
available CAPE well, as we've had several hail reports, mostly
quarter sized or less, though cannot rule out some larger hail in
the pre-frontal airmass from FTK east to KLEX over the next few
hours.

The other area of concern is with the more linear feature moving
near the I-65 corridor in Central KY this hour.  This area has the
most potential instability to work with, as temperatures are well
into the 70s along our border with TN. Seeing some bowing segments
within this line and have issue warnings accordingly. HPX radar was
showing winds closer to 70 mph with this line, but have not had any
reports near that level just yet.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

...Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon and Evening...

Strong to severe storms are likely this afternoon with much of the
area under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch through this evening.  These
storms are courtesy of a low pressure system moving northeast
through southern IN/northern KY.  1000-2000 j/kg of CAPE has
developed south of the warm front which was over southern IN as of
315pm EDT. 30-40 kts deep layer shear is supportive of both discrete
cells which we're seeing on radar in our region currently and will
be supportive of the line of storms over western KY which is progged
to move east through the region between 5pm-midnight tonight.

========================
Storm Threats & Timing
========================

Cellular convection will pose a large hail/damaging wind/isld
tornado threat between now and 8pm EDT.

Expect mainly a damaging wind threat with the line of storms but
small hail and a brief spin-up will be possible as well between 5pm
and midnight EDT.

=========================

Convection should decrease after midnight with elevated showers and
perhaps an isld t-storm during the early morning hours in the wake
of the evening complex.  Overnight lows will range through the 50s.

For Tuesday, expect some lingering rain showers mainly east of I-65
before the area becomes totally dry late in the day.  High
temperatures will be in the 60s.  Lows Tues night will range through
the upper 40s/lower 50s.

.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Expect dry weather on Wednesday before the pattern turns active
again for the latter portion of the week.  A strong low pressure
system will bring the chance for showers/storms to the region
beginning on Thu/Fri.  Depending on exact evolution and timing, some
of these storms could be on the strong side.  Thu looks to the be
the warmest day in the long term period with highs in the mid to
upper 70s across much of the area.

For the weekend, expect dry weather and slightly cooler temps with
highs dropping back into the 60s.  Another low pressure system looks
to approach the area again by the beginning of the work week next
week.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Main threat for this afternoon and early evening is the threat of
thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. A warm and
moist airmass is moving into the region ahead of a surface low
moving into the mid Mississippi River Valley. Showers and storms are
already ongoing across SE Missouri/W Tennessee/N Mississippi and
will quickly move into our area this afternoon.

BWG will see the first round of storms as early as 2 PM CDT, with
the best threat lasting until 8 PM CDT. Lightning, brief heavy rain,
gusty winds, and hail are the main threats. Expect reduced
visibilities and ceilings at times.

SDF/LEX timing for the biggest threat should occur between 5 PM and
10 PM EDT. Lightning, brief heavy rain, and gusty winds are the main
threats. Expect reduced visibilities and ceilings at times.

Main storm threat diminishes around the latter part of the timing
windows mentioned above, however may be followed by shower activity
into the overnight. A return to dry conditions should return shortly
after midnight as a weak cold front swings through and winds veer
to the SW and W. Concerned about some low ceilings as we move toward
dawn on Tuesday and will advertise fuel-alternate prevailing. Can't
rule out IFR toward dawn but will hold off mention until confidence
is higher.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...RJS
Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...BJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
355 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

INZ084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-
282000-
Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-
Franklin-Scott-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-
Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-
Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-
Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-
Clinton-
Including the cities of English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany,
Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg,
Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville,
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort,
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles,
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg,
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville,
Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
355 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 /255 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening.
The most likely hazard is damaging winds, but there is some potential
for large hail and brief spin-up tornadoes, especially in central
Kentucky along and west of Interstate 65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible again Thursday into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size and wind damage
today and tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076>079-083-282000-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison,
and Jasper
355 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.
The most likely hazard is damaging winds, but there is some
potential for large hail as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible again Thursday into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size and wind damage
today and tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

AMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
606 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

KYZ063>065-076-077-272245-
Hart-Metcalf-Taylor-Adair-Green-
606 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GREEN...SOUTHEASTERN
HART...SOUTHWESTERN TAYLOR...METCALFE AND WESTERN ADAIR COUNTIES...

At 605 PM EDT/505 PM CDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were
located along a line extending from 7 miles east of Munfordville to
near Edmonton. Movement was northeast at 40 to 50 mph.

Brief wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Campbellsville, Columbia, Greensburg, Edmonton, Monroe, Pickett,
Curtis, Node, Bliss and Fry.

LAT...LON 3715 8576 3717 8575 3717 8576 3729 8577
      3739 8536 3700 8520 3699 8521 3699 8524
      3689 8574
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 246DEG 42KT 3726 8576 3692 8569

TWF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
617 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW HORSE CAVE         37.20N 85.94W
03/27/2017                   HART               KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEMI ON INTERSTATE 65 NEAR HORSE CAVE KY IS
            ON ITS SIDE.

&&

KDW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
623 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             2 SE HIGHGROVE          37.94N 85.45W
03/27/2017  M1.00 INCH       NELSON             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAD 1 INCH HAIL THAT WAS IRREGULARLY SHAPED.
            HURT TO PICK IT UP.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
625 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             FAIRFIELD               37.94N 85.38W
03/27/2017  E0.75 INCH       NELSON             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
628 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             COXS CREEK              37.90N 85.47W
03/27/2017  E1.50 INCH       NELSON             KY   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. PICTURE SENT VIA
            TWITTER TO TV STATION.

&&

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
631 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

KYZ029-038-045-046-054-272300-
Bullitt-Marion-Spencer-Washington-Nelson-
631 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SPENCER...NELSON...
NORTHWESTERN MARION...CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN BULLITT
COUNTIES...

At 630 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 10 miles north of Bardstown to 7 miles
northwest of Lebanon. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bardstown, Taylorsville, Bloomfield, Willisburg, Wakefield, Yoder,
Highgrove, Waterford, Samuels Field Airport and Booker.

LAT...LON 3795 8516 3789 8515 3790 8514 3790 8513
      3791 8512 3780 8501 3764 8544 3790 8562
      3813 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 246DEG 34KT 3795 8553 3765 8535

EER