Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
521 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 520 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Latest RAP mesoanalysis has not been handling the amount of
available CAPE well, as we've had several hail reports, mostly
quarter sized or less, though cannot rule out some larger hail in
the pre-frontal airmass from FTK east to KLEX over the next few
hours.

The other area of concern is with the more linear feature moving
near the I-65 corridor in Central KY this hour.  This area has the
most potential instability to work with, as temperatures are well
into the 70s along our border with TN. Seeing some bowing segments
within this line and have issue warnings accordingly. HPX radar was
showing winds closer to 70 mph with this line, but have not had any
reports near that level just yet.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

...Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon and Evening...

Strong to severe storms are likely this afternoon with much of the
area under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch through this evening.  These
storms are courtesy of a low pressure system moving northeast
through southern IN/northern KY.  1000-2000 j/kg of CAPE has
developed south of the warm front which was over southern IN as of
315pm EDT. 30-40 kts deep layer shear is supportive of both discrete
cells which we're seeing on radar in our region currently and will
be supportive of the line of storms over western KY which is progged
to move east through the region between 5pm-midnight tonight.

========================
Storm Threats & Timing
========================

Cellular convection will pose a large hail/damaging wind/isld
tornado threat between now and 8pm EDT.

Expect mainly a damaging wind threat with the line of storms but
small hail and a brief spin-up will be possible as well between 5pm
and midnight EDT.

=========================

Convection should decrease after midnight with elevated showers and
perhaps an isld t-storm during the early morning hours in the wake
of the evening complex.  Overnight lows will range through the 50s.

For Tuesday, expect some lingering rain showers mainly east of I-65
before the area becomes totally dry late in the day.  High
temperatures will be in the 60s.  Lows Tues night will range through
the upper 40s/lower 50s.

.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Expect dry weather on Wednesday before the pattern turns active
again for the latter portion of the week.  A strong low pressure
system will bring the chance for showers/storms to the region
beginning on Thu/Fri.  Depending on exact evolution and timing, some
of these storms could be on the strong side.  Thu looks to the be
the warmest day in the long term period with highs in the mid to
upper 70s across much of the area.

For the weekend, expect dry weather and slightly cooler temps with
highs dropping back into the 60s.  Another low pressure system looks
to approach the area again by the beginning of the work week next
week.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Main threat for this afternoon and early evening is the threat of
thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. A warm and
moist airmass is moving into the region ahead of a surface low
moving into the mid Mississippi River Valley. Showers and storms are
already ongoing across SE Missouri/W Tennessee/N Mississippi and
will quickly move into our area this afternoon.

BWG will see the first round of storms as early as 2 PM CDT, with
the best threat lasting until 8 PM CDT. Lightning, brief heavy rain,
gusty winds, and hail are the main threats. Expect reduced
visibilities and ceilings at times.

SDF/LEX timing for the biggest threat should occur between 5 PM and
10 PM EDT. Lightning, brief heavy rain, and gusty winds are the main
threats. Expect reduced visibilities and ceilings at times.

Main storm threat diminishes around the latter part of the timing
windows mentioned above, however may be followed by shower activity
into the overnight. A return to dry conditions should return shortly
after midnight as a weak cold front swings through and winds veer
to the SW and W. Concerned about some low ceilings as we move toward
dawn on Tuesday and will advertise fuel-alternate prevailing. Can't
rule out IFR toward dawn but will hold off mention until confidence
is higher.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...RJS
Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...BJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
355 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

INZ084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-
282000-
Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-
Franklin-Scott-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-
Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-
Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-
Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-
Clinton-
Including the cities of English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany,
Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg,
Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville,
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort,
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles,
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg,
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville,
Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
355 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 /255 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening.
The most likely hazard is damaging winds, but there is some potential
for large hail and brief spin-up tornadoes, especially in central
Kentucky along and west of Interstate 65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible again Thursday into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size and wind damage
today and tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076>079-083-282000-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison,
and Jasper
355 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.
The most likely hazard is damaging winds, but there is some
potential for large hail as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible again Thursday into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size and wind damage
today and tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
500 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             3 SSE RADCLIFF          37.78N 85.91W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       HARDIN             KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            .

&&

KDW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
507 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

INZ090-KYZ025-028-029-272130-
Harrison-Bullitt-Meade-Hardin-
507 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON...
SOUTHEASTERN MEADE...NORTH CENTRAL HARDIN AND WEST CENTRAL BULLITT
COUNTIES...

At 507 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Brandenburg,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Muldraugh, West Point, Elizabeth, Ekron, Laconia, Cupio, Rosewood,
Evans Landing, New Boston and Rock Haven.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3815 8595 3809 8591 3807 8592 3803 8592
      3800 8595 3800 8593 3801 8591 3803 8590
      3804 8588 3799 8584 3783 8608 3793 8621
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 228DEG 27KT 3793 8608

SCHOETTMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
517 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

KYZ029-045-272145-
Bullitt-Nelson-
517 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN NELSON AND CENTRAL
BULLITT COUNTIES...

At 517 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Shepherdsville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Shepherdsville, Mount Washington, Lebanon Junction, Ridgetop,
Highgrove, Solitude, Bardstown Junction, Hobbs, Smithville and
Scuffletown.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3807 8558 3807 8555 3802 8551 3801 8551
      3799 8549 3794 8545 3784 8573 3789 8577
      3808 8561
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 228DEG 25KT 3788 8570

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
525 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ESE BOWLING GREEN     36.97N 86.42W
03/27/2017  M49 MPH          WARREN             KY   ASOS

            MEASURED AT BWG AIRPORT.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
527 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             1 ESE BOWLING GREEN     36.97N 86.42W
03/27/2017  E0.88 INCH       WARREN             KY   PUBLIC

            .

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
528 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             2 NE MILLWOOD           37.47N 86.48W
03/27/2017  E0.50 INCH       GRAYSON            KY   PUBLIC

            .

&&

KDW