Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
609 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Two rounds of showers and storms are expected today. The first will
arrive this morning with isolated heavy rain and gusty winds
possible. The second round will arrive this evening with damaging
winds...hail...and heavy rain possible. This heavy rain could cause
isolated flooding...especially in areas that saw heavy rain on
Friday. A brief break is expected on Tuesday but additional storms
are expected Wednesday into Thursday. Heat and humidity values will
steadily increase through the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

MCS rolling across the Upper Midwest as expected this morning,
fueled by steep midlevel lapse rates, strong shear, and nearly 3000
J/kg of MUCAPE with excellent LLJ and associated moisture transport.
Forward propagating Corfidi vectors and thickness lines continue to
suggest more of an eastward turn this morning with main area of
convection moving into our CWA around 12Z. (Additional SCT storms
will likely continue in our east as well.) MCS maintenance
parameters not as favorable over our area with weaker midlevel lapse
rates and less supportive mean flow/shear (southerly 0-2 km SR winds
also less favorable with eastward hook into our area). While the
threat for an organized MCS/significant severe weather event is low,
ample 850mb moisture advection (850mb dewpoints near 15C) and still
modest lapse rates aloft will support up to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE with
enough flow to support an isolated damaging wind/hail threat. MCS
actually already looking a bit ragged on radar mosaic and suspect
impinging LLJ will favor additional development ahead of the main
line, beginning in our NW in a few hours. While isolated severe
threat is possible, heavy rain and flooding will be larger concern.
Widespread area of moderate rain seen on radar mosaic and expect
this will envelope our CWA later this morning. Atmospheric moisture
is not extremely high but PW values are over 1.5 inches and warm
cloud depths are around 12 kft. However, HRRR indicating more of a
north-south orientation to the line with limited backbuilding/
training potential and upstream rainfall reports so far have not
been particularly impressive for most areas. Main concern for flash
flooding will be in areas impacting by Friday's rain. Corridor of
Friday's rain was intense but also narrow with very little precip on
either side. Therefore expect just isolated flooding threat and will
hold with just ESF/HWO for now.

Question remains what the impact of this morning convection will be
on afternoon/evening activity. Typically this morning convection
would trash our evening chances but as previously noted, tremendous
low level moisture advection anticipated with 40+ kt LLJ sending a
pronounced 850mb theta-e ridge into our region from the Central
Plains. 850mb dewpoints approach 18C with PW values climbing near 2
inches. While the impact of morning storms remains somewhat unclear,
this moisture advection (in concert with midlevel lapse rates
climbing to 7 C/km) would suggest enough instability for a second
round of strong/severe storms this evening as SBCAPE values
potentially climb to near 3000 J/kg by 00Z. And with 40+ kts at
850mb and tremendous veering through the column, it will not take
much to produce organized clusters of storms with damaging winds.
While the threat of tornadoes is low due to lack of significantly
backed near-surface wind/"hockey-stick" hodographs, they cannot be
ruled out given good 0-1km shear/helicity and relatively low LCL's
in moist environment. Deep layer shear of 35-40 kts also supports
potential for supercells, assuming adequate instability, with hail
also a concern. Best chances of severe weather likely along and
south of US-30 in the 21-06Z timeframe as suggested by the WRF-ARW
given potentially less impact from morning activity and better
proximity to best moisture plume. However, difficult to rule out the
northern counties either. Heavy rain/flooding also obviously a
concern if instability field does recover and support widespread/
sustained updrafts. Will defer to day shift to nail down details
with benefit of seeing exactly how AM convection evolves but the
threat for both severe weather and flooding is certainly there.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Bright side to today's very active weather is that most 00Z guidance
now suggest enough ridging/subsidence in highly worked-over
environment to push boundary south of our area on Tuesday and give a
break from busy weather. A few storms possible in our far south Tues
afternoon but most of the CWA now appears dry and have cut back PoPs
even further. Break will be relatively short-lived though as next
trough approaches the northern Lakes and increasing/backing low
level flow will send front northward again late Tues night/Wed. Some
brief strong storms/heavy rain may be possible early Wed morning
(especially in our north) but best isentropic ascent and moisture
convergence appear to focus over central MI on Wed with our CWA in
capped warm sector. Better chances will arrive Wed night into Thu as
cold front finally pushes south and scours out moisture/instability.
Severe weather will be possible with this cold front given moderate
instability, decent shear, and good forcing. Much will depend on
exact timing though, which is a bit uncertain at this range. Dry to
end the work week but secondary cold front possible sometime late
Saturday per both latest GFS and ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Large area of tsra from srn Lake MI across nrn IL has been movg se
and expect this to continue this morning as mucape over nrn IN
>1000j/kg and latest VWP suggesting low level warm advection,
while not as strong as overnight, was still continuing. Airmass
expected to destabilize this aftn in the wake of the morning
convection, with redevelopment along frontal boundary extending
eastward from low currently over IA which will move east into nrn
IL this aftn/eve with these storms also likely impacting the
terminals. This low should continue ene tonight across srn MI
allowing a frontal boundary to move south into nrn IN in its wake.
Expect stratus/br with ifr/mvfr conditions will accompany this
front.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...JT

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
456 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-110900-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
456 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 /356 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Additional thunderstorms are expected this morning. Widespread
severe weather is not anticipated, but an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm is possible with isolated damaging winds...hail...and
locally heavy rainfall. Additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop this evening. Some of these storms may be severe with
damaging winds...hail...and heavy rain. Localized flooding is
possible...especially in areas that saw heavy rain on Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday and Thursday.
Severe weather may be possible but confidence is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-110900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
456 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this morning and again this evening. Some
of the storms may be strong to severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
905 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E CONSTANTINE         41.84N 85.63W
07/10/2017  E0.76 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.76" IN 25 MINS.

&&

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
909 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

INZ018-025-026-101345-
Huntington-Allen-Wells-
909 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN...
NORTHEASTERN HUNTINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN WELLS COUNTIES...

At 908 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Huntington,
moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Wayne, Huntington, Ossian, Markle, Roanoke, Zanesville,
Uniondale, Nine Mile, Bowerstown, Yoder, Poe and Mahon.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 between mile markers 0 and 10.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 287 and 299.

LAT...LON 4093 8557 4102 8515 4092 8505 4092 8507
      4085 8507 4081 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1308Z 253DEG 33KT 4089 8544

MARSILI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
911 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N HUNTINGTON          40.90N 85.51W
07/10/2017                   HUNTINGTON         IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMB ON VEHICLE AT HARDEES. DIME SIZED
            HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

&&

CR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
917 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE RUTLAND            41.21N 86.31W
07/10/2017                   MARSHALL           IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

CR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
933 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E BOURBON             41.30N 86.11W
07/10/2017  E0.62 INCH       MARSHALL           IN   MESONET

            RAINFALL IN 16 MINUTES.

&&

SKIP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
947 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

INZ005-006-008-101445-
Lagrange-Noble-Elkhart-
947 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ELKHART...
NOBLE AND SOUTHERN LAGRANGE COUNTIES...

At 947 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near New Paris to near Syracuse to North
Webster. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kendallville, Ligonier, Lagrange, Albion, Rome City, Topeka,
Millersburg, Benton, Wolcottville, Cromwell, Brimfield, Honeyville,
Brushy Prairie, Big Long Lake, Plato, Bear Lake, Stroh, Mongo,
Indianola and Lisbon.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4169 8520 4139 8519 4129 8558 4130 8565
      4144 8565 4144 8572 4155 8580 4168 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 1347Z 248DEG 38KT 4154 8581 4143 8567 4131 8567

MARSILI