Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Northern Indiana

141 
WWUS53 KIWX 100734
SVSIWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
334 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

INC003-069-100743-
/O.CAN.KIWX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-170710T0800Z/
Allen IN-Huntington IN-
334 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN AND
NORTHEASTERN HUNTINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4082 8533 4089 8533 4092 8521 4092 8508
      4075 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0733Z 268DEG 16KT 4086 8522 

$$

INC179-100800-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-170710T0800Z/
Wells IN-
334 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WELLS COUNTY...

At 333 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Ossian, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Bluffton, Ossian, Markle, Uniondale, Tocsin, Craigville, Kingsland,
Murray and Curryville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4082 8533 4089 8533 4092 8521 4092 8508
      4075 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0733Z 268DEG 16KT 4086 8522 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

NWS

430 
WWUS53 KIWX 100758
SVSIWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
358 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

INC179-100807-
/O.EXP.KIWX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-170710T0800Z/
Wells IN-
358 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WELLS COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 400 AM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and heavy rain are still expected with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4082 8533 4089 8533 4092 8521 4092 8508
      4075 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0757Z 275DEG 11KT 4084 8516 

$$

NWS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
132 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017

Thunderstorms are expected to reach southwest Lower Michigan and
northwest Indiana toward daybreak and will track across the area
Monday morning. Additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
then expected to develop Monday afternoon and evening. A few
strong or severe storms are possible Monday and Monday evening,
with locally heavy rainfall possible. A lull in the higher chances
of showers is then expected Tuesday, but chances of showers and
thunderstorms will increase again Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper 60s. High
temperatures on Monday will be in the 80 to 85 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017

A transition to a more active weather pattern will begin late
tonight, and continue through midweek.

Continuation of northwest upper flow pattern will lead to a more
favorable setup for MCS formation early this week. For tonight,
low level thermal troughing will continue to shift east of the
area as low level westerlies slightly increase. A weak lead short
wave tracking across the western Great Lakes this evening combined
with the onset of the low level WAA/moisture advection could
allow for a few isolated showers or storms later this evening
into the early portion of the overnight hours. Of greater
concern will be potential of more organized convective system to
develop upstream across the upper MS Valley at nose of very strong
low level theta-e advective forcing. Downwind Corfidi
vectors/thickness orientation/instability gradient would
seemingly support propagation of MCS into northeast Illinois-
southwest Lower Michigan-western Indiana late tonight, and working
across local area during the morning hours. Some diminishment in
intensity is anticipated after 09Z, but given increasing deep
layer shear and an associated 35-50 knot mid level speed max with
approaching wave, some organization of this MCS appears likely
into IWX CWA Monday morning. Concur with updated SPC Day 1
outlook in marginal risk expansion eastward with primarily a wind
threat across western portions of the forecast area.

Several CAMs and a few lower res models depict MCS through local
area Monday morning with strengthening advective fields allowing for
fairly quick recovery in instability magnitudes during the
afternoon. Instability profiles are of relatively low confidence for
tomorrow however. NAM depicts very robust axis of sfc based
instability in wake of potential morning MCS across especially
southwest portions of area by afternoon. Details in instability
will likely be modulated by strength of advective fields which
will be somewhat dependent on strength of residual convectively
enhanced vorts.

While some isolated wind and heavy rain threat will accompany
morning activity, redevelopment along leftover morning outflow will
need to be watched for potential higher impacts. Given modest shear
possible moderate instability, and pronounced veering wind
profiles, some concern that initial redevelopment could acquire
some supercell characteristics before morphing more into larger
band/heavy rain threat later in the afternoon/evening Monday.
Greatest potential of heavy rain/severe threat should occur along
and south of leftover outflow boundary. Still alot of details to
resolve depending on what happens with overnight MCS, but
potential does exist for isolated-scattered severe weather, with
biggest concern at this point on heavy rainfall potential given
wet antecedent conditions across portions of the area from last
week's heavy rain. With moderate southwesterly low level flow,
continued west-northwest mid/upper level flow, and orientation of
max instability back across central IL, will need to monitor for
potential backbuilding/upwind development with any afternoon
storms along old outflows. Have issued an ESF outlooking
flood/river flood potential for Monday/Monday night, and again
late Tuesday-Wednesday. Will hold off any any hydro headlines at
this time with a good deal of uncertainty on where heaviest rain
axis will set up.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017

A temporary lull in greater rain chances is expected on Tuesday as
southward sagging frontal boundary likely reinforced by Monday night
convection drops across southern portions of the area, or possibly
into central Indiana. Will maintain a south to north gradient in
PoPs but additional significant rainfall should hold off until
later Tuesday night or Wednesday as low level theta-e surge lifts
back north-northeast in advance of next more pronounced Northern
Plains short wave. Better chances of more showers and storms look
to be inline once again for the Tuesday night-Wednesday period.
Current indications suggest southern Great Lakes should be on
southern periphery of stronger mid level flow, but moderate to
strong instability is a possibility on Wednesday with some
strong/severe threat. Impressive moisture profiles also noted in
guidance again in prefrontal/frontal environment midweek with
continued heavy rain potential. Conditions should start to improve
by the end of the work week with low level boundary being favored
south of the area. Additional NW flow waves may bring another
chance of showers/storms later in weekend with additional fropa,
but lacking heavy rain potential of earlier this week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Generally vfr conditions during this taf period, but there will be
some TSRA with lower flight conditions at times. Strong low warm
advection providing lift for sct shra/ts development over nrn IN
in past hour. This activity should impact FWA early this morning.
Sufficient instability in place to allow MCS over the upr Midwest
to track se across nrn IN between 10-15z resulting in tsra with
mvfr conditions or lower at the terminals in this timeframe. Sct
TSRA expected to redevelop late this aftn/eve as airmass
destabilizes with diurnal heating and low currently over nw IA
moves east to srn Lake Michigan.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Marsili/Lashley
SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili
AVIATION...JT

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
408 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017

INZ005>009-016>018-023>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
016-024-025-102015-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
408 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight, mainly overnight. Severe
weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms will be likely Monday morning. Widespread severe
weather is not expected, but an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm is possible with isolated damaging winds and locally
heavy rainfall as the main threats. Additional thunderstorms are
expected to develop Monday afternoon and evening. There is a slight
risk of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, mainly
across northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. Locally heavy rainfall is
also possible.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are expected mainly Tuesday night
through Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall and severe weather are
possible, but confidence is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Monday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ003-004-012>015-020-022-MIZ077-102015-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-White-
Cass IN-Berrien-
408 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 /308 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Michigan
and northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will become likely toward daybreak. Widespread severe
weather is not expected, but isolated damaging wind gusts and locally
heavy rainfall are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms will be likely Monday morning. Widespread severe
weather is not expected, but an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm is possible with isolated damaging winds and locally
heavy rainfall as the main threats. Additional thunderstorms are
expected to develop Monday afternoon and evening. There is a slight
risk of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, mainly
across northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. Locally heavy rainfall is
also possible.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are expected mainly Tuesday night
through Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall and severe weather are
possible, but confidence is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Monday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-102015-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
408 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will become likely late tonight. There is a low risk
for thunderstorms producing wind gusts in excess of 40 knots late
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected Monday through Thursday.
Some of these storms may be strong to severe.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1253 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

INZ023-024-032-100530-
Wabash-Miami-Grant-
1253 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WABASH...
NORTHWESTERN GRANT AND SOUTHERN MIAMI COUNTIES...

At 1252 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bunker Hill,
or near Peru, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Peru, Wabash, Grissom Afb, Bunker Hill, Wells, Miami, Erie, Amboy,
Richvalley, Santa Fe, Treaty, Peoria, Somerset and Nead.

LAT...LON 4059 8616 4063 8617 4077 8617 4086 8580
      4059 8575
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 261DEG 16KT 4069 8608

NWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
151 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

INZ025-026-100615-
Huntington-Wells-
151 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HUNTINGTON AND
SOUTHERN WELLS COUNTIES...

At 150 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Markle, or 10 miles west of Bluffton, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bluffton, Warren, Poneto, Vera Cruz, Travisville, Craigville,
Wellsburg, Reiffsburg, Murray, Liberty Center, Mount Zion, Plum Tree,
North Oaks, Buckeye, Rockford and Curryville.

This includes Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 278 and
283.

LAT...LON 4065 8538 4068 8544 4079 8544 4083 8507
      4062 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 272DEG 21KT 4072 8538

NWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
222 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

INZ017-018-025-026-100645-
Whitley-Huntington-Allen-Wells-
222 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN...SOUTHERN
WHITLEY...NORTHERN HUNTINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN WELLS COUNTIES...

At 222 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Huntington,
moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Wayne, Huntington, Ossian, Andrews, Aboite, Roanoke, Zanesville,
Laud, Nine Mile, Bowerstown, Yoder, Dunfee, Goblesville, Bracken,
Tunker, Washington Center, Arcola, Mahon, Rolling Hills and Luther.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 between mile markers 0 and 8.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 289 and 309.

LAT...LON 4086 8560 4104 8564 4113 8516 4086 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 0622Z 263DEG 26KT 4096 8555

NWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
238 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

MIZ081-OHZ001-100715-
Hillsdale-Williams-
238 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HILLSDALE AND NORTHERN
WILLIAMS COUNTIES...

At 237 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Reading, or 12
miles southwest of Hillsdale, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hudson, Pioneer, Reading, Long Lake, Cambria, Pittsford, Ransom,
Waldron, Camden, Montgomery, Bear Lake, Prattville, Alvordton,
Bridgewater Center, Lake Wilson, Frontier, Nettle Lake, Lake Seneca,
Shadyside and Betzer.

LAT...LON 4171 8436 4170 8440 4163 8440 4166 8480
      4188 8482 4190 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0637Z 270DEG 26KT 4177 8477

NWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
255 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

INZ018-025-026-100730-
Huntington-Allen-Wells-
255 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN...
NORTHEASTERN HUNTINGTON AND NORTH CENTRAL WELLS COUNTIES...

At 255 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Huntington,
moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Huntington, Markle, Aboite, Roanoke, Zanesville, Uniondale,
Bowerstown and Mahon.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 near mile marker 8.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 283 and 297.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4094 8554 4101 8536 4100 8534 4102 8533
      4103 8530 4079 8523 4077 8548
TIME...MOT...LOC 0655Z 256DEG 15KT 4089 8546

NWS