Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
609 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Two rounds of showers and storms are expected today. The first will
arrive this morning with isolated heavy rain and gusty winds
possible. The second round will arrive this evening with damaging
winds...hail...and heavy rain possible. This heavy rain could cause
isolated flooding...especially in areas that saw heavy rain on
Friday. A brief break is expected on Tuesday but additional storms
are expected Wednesday into Thursday. Heat and humidity values will
steadily increase through the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

MCS rolling across the Upper Midwest as expected this morning,
fueled by steep midlevel lapse rates, strong shear, and nearly 3000
J/kg of MUCAPE with excellent LLJ and associated moisture transport.
Forward propagating Corfidi vectors and thickness lines continue to
suggest more of an eastward turn this morning with main area of
convection moving into our CWA around 12Z. (Additional SCT storms
will likely continue in our east as well.) MCS maintenance
parameters not as favorable over our area with weaker midlevel lapse
rates and less supportive mean flow/shear (southerly 0-2 km SR winds
also less favorable with eastward hook into our area). While the
threat for an organized MCS/significant severe weather event is low,
ample 850mb moisture advection (850mb dewpoints near 15C) and still
modest lapse rates aloft will support up to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE with
enough flow to support an isolated damaging wind/hail threat. MCS
actually already looking a bit ragged on radar mosaic and suspect
impinging LLJ will favor additional development ahead of the main
line, beginning in our NW in a few hours. While isolated severe
threat is possible, heavy rain and flooding will be larger concern.
Widespread area of moderate rain seen on radar mosaic and expect
this will envelope our CWA later this morning. Atmospheric moisture
is not extremely high but PW values are over 1.5 inches and warm
cloud depths are around 12 kft. However, HRRR indicating more of a
north-south orientation to the line with limited backbuilding/
training potential and upstream rainfall reports so far have not
been particularly impressive for most areas. Main concern for flash
flooding will be in areas impacting by Friday's rain. Corridor of
Friday's rain was intense but also narrow with very little precip on
either side. Therefore expect just isolated flooding threat and will
hold with just ESF/HWO for now.

Question remains what the impact of this morning convection will be
on afternoon/evening activity. Typically this morning convection
would trash our evening chances but as previously noted, tremendous
low level moisture advection anticipated with 40+ kt LLJ sending a
pronounced 850mb theta-e ridge into our region from the Central
Plains. 850mb dewpoints approach 18C with PW values climbing near 2
inches. While the impact of morning storms remains somewhat unclear,
this moisture advection (in concert with midlevel lapse rates
climbing to 7 C/km) would suggest enough instability for a second
round of strong/severe storms this evening as SBCAPE values
potentially climb to near 3000 J/kg by 00Z. And with 40+ kts at
850mb and tremendous veering through the column, it will not take
much to produce organized clusters of storms with damaging winds.
While the threat of tornadoes is low due to lack of significantly
backed near-surface wind/"hockey-stick" hodographs, they cannot be
ruled out given good 0-1km shear/helicity and relatively low LCL's
in moist environment. Deep layer shear of 35-40 kts also supports
potential for supercells, assuming adequate instability, with hail
also a concern. Best chances of severe weather likely along and
south of US-30 in the 21-06Z timeframe as suggested by the WRF-ARW
given potentially less impact from morning activity and better
proximity to best moisture plume. However, difficult to rule out the
northern counties either. Heavy rain/flooding also obviously a
concern if instability field does recover and support widespread/
sustained updrafts. Will defer to day shift to nail down details
with benefit of seeing exactly how AM convection evolves but the
threat for both severe weather and flooding is certainly there.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Bright side to today's very active weather is that most 00Z guidance
now suggest enough ridging/subsidence in highly worked-over
environment to push boundary south of our area on Tuesday and give a
break from busy weather. A few storms possible in our far south Tues
afternoon but most of the CWA now appears dry and have cut back PoPs
even further. Break will be relatively short-lived though as next
trough approaches the northern Lakes and increasing/backing low
level flow will send front northward again late Tues night/Wed. Some
brief strong storms/heavy rain may be possible early Wed morning
(especially in our north) but best isentropic ascent and moisture
convergence appear to focus over central MI on Wed with our CWA in
capped warm sector. Better chances will arrive Wed night into Thu as
cold front finally pushes south and scours out moisture/instability.
Severe weather will be possible with this cold front given moderate
instability, decent shear, and good forcing. Much will depend on
exact timing though, which is a bit uncertain at this range. Dry to
end the work week but secondary cold front possible sometime late
Saturday per both latest GFS and ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Large area of tsra from srn Lake MI across nrn IL has been movg se
and expect this to continue this morning as mucape over nrn IN
>1000j/kg and latest VWP suggesting low level warm advection,
while not as strong as overnight, was still continuing. Airmass
expected to destabilize this aftn in the wake of the morning
convection, with redevelopment along frontal boundary extending
eastward from low currently over IA which will move east into nrn
IL this aftn/eve with these storms also likely impacting the
terminals. This low should continue ene tonight across srn MI
allowing a frontal boundary to move south into nrn IN in its wake.
Expect stratus/br with ifr/mvfr conditions will accompany this
front.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...JT

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
456 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-110900-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
456 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 /356 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Additional thunderstorms are expected this morning. Widespread
severe weather is not anticipated, but an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm is possible with isolated damaging winds...hail...and
locally heavy rainfall. Additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop this evening. Some of these storms may be severe with
damaging winds...hail...and heavy rain. Localized flooding is
possible...especially in areas that saw heavy rain on Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday and Thursday.
Severe weather may be possible but confidence is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-110900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
456 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this morning and again this evening. Some
of the storms may be strong to severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
900 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

INZ005-012>016-023-101345-
Miami-Kosciusko-Marshall-Fulton-Elkhart-Pulaski-Starke-
900 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ELKHART...
FULTON...NORTHEASTERN PULASKI...WESTERN KOSCIUSKO...EASTERN STARKE...
NORTHWESTERN MIAMI AND MARSHALL COUNTIES...

At 900 AM EDT/800 AM CDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were
located along a line extending from Walkerton to near Culver to 7
miles southeast of Winamac. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Warsaw, Plymouth, Nappanee, Rochester, Winona Lake, Bremen, Bourbon,
Argos, Culver, Akron, Mentone, Koontz Lake, Locke, Walnut,
Tippecanoe, Oak Grove, Kewanna, Etna Green, La Paz and Leesburg.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4124 8647 4143 8653 4148 8609 4148 8606
      4149 8606 4150 8593 4123 8580 4104 8587
      4104 8595 4097 8595 4098 8656
TIME...MOT...LOC 1300Z 271DEG 37KT 4148 8646 4125 8638 4100 8647

MARSILI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
902 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HUNTINGTON              40.89N 85.50W
07/10/2017                   HUNTINGTON         IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ALONG OAK ST AND POPLAR
            ST.

&&

CR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
905 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E CONSTANTINE         41.84N 85.63W
07/10/2017  E0.76 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.76" IN 25 MINS.

&&

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
909 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

INZ018-025-026-101345-
Huntington-Allen-Wells-
909 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN...
NORTHEASTERN HUNTINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN WELLS COUNTIES...

At 908 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Huntington,
moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Wayne, Huntington, Ossian, Markle, Roanoke, Zanesville,
Uniondale, Nine Mile, Bowerstown, Yoder, Poe and Mahon.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 between mile markers 0 and 10.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 287 and 299.

LAT...LON 4093 8557 4102 8515 4092 8505 4092 8507
      4085 8507 4081 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1308Z 253DEG 33KT 4089 8544

MARSILI