Alert archive / Indiana / River Flood Warnings in 2017

River Flood Warning 92, NWS Northern Indiana

July 10, 20175 counties in Indiana

NWS Northern Indiana issued this river flood warning at Jul 10, 2017, 10:53 AM EDT for 5 counties in Indiana. It took effect at Jul 10, 2017, 11:07 PM EDT. It was in force for 70 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 10, 2017, 10:53 AM EDT (14:53 UTC)
In effect from
Jul 10, 2017, 11:07 PM EDT
Expired
Jul 13, 2017, 9:00 PM EDT
In force
70 hr
Issued by
NWS Northern Indiana
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Moderate

Counties Cass County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, Miami County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Whitley County, IN

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Eel River (IN) at North Manchester (NMCI3). The gauge peaked at 6.58 ft at Jul 9, 2017, 11:00 AM EDT.

actionminormoderate5101507/1007/1107/1207/1307/1407/15
Action stage
9 ft
Minor stage
11 ft
Moderate stage
14 ft
Major stage
16 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 03328000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

903 
WGUS43 KIWX 101453
FLWIWX


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1053 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

...The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a 
Flood Warning for the following rivers...

  Eel River at North Manchester affecting Cass...Kosciusko...Miami...
  Wabash and Whitley Counties

.Current and forecast rainfall will allow for rises on the Eel River at North Manchester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC017-085-103-169-183-111453-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FL.W.0092.170711T0307Z-170714T0100Z/
/NMCI3.2.ER.170711T0307Z.170711T1800Z.170713T0100Z.NO/
1053 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Eel River at North Manchester
* from this evening to Thursday evening.
* At 10 AM Monday the stage was 6.3 feet and rising.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Monday night and 
  crest near 12.5 feet around  2 PM Tuesday July 11 and fall below 
  flood stage around  9 PM Wednesday July 12.
* At 13.0 feet...South Mill Street lumber company built wall to 
  prevent flooding after December 1990 flood.  
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.5 feet which occurred 
  on Jul 1 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 4076 8635 4097 8592 4102 8577 4099 8577
      4087 8599 4072 8631             

$$
2 follow-up statements
295 
WGUS43 KIWX 110133
FLWIWX


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
933 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

...The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a 
Flood Warning for the following rivers...

  Tippecanoe River near Ora affecting Fulton...Kosciusko...Marshall...
  Pulaski and Starke Counties
  Kankakee River at Davis affecting La Porte...Starke and St. Joseph 
  Counties
  Auglaize River near Fort Jennings affecting Allen...Paulding and 
  Putnam Counties
  Ottawa River near Kalida affecting Putnam County
  Blanchard River at Ottawa affecting Putnam County
  Saint Marys River near Decatur affecting Adams...Allen and Van Wert 
  Counties
  Tiffin River near Stryker affecting Defiance...Fulton and Williams 
  Counties

...Flooding severity forecast to increase from Moderate to Moderate 
for the following rivers in Indiana 

  Eel River at North Manchester affecting Cass...Kosciusko...Miami...
  Wabash and Whitley Counties

.Recent and forecasted heavy rainfall will send several rivers into flood stage through at least the middle of the week. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC017-085-103-169-183-120133-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0092.170711T0913Z-170714T0000Z/
/NMCI3.2.ER.170711T0913Z.170711T1800Z.170713T0000Z.NO/
933 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Eel River at North Manchester
* from late tonight to Thursday evening.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 5.6 feet and falling.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage early Tuesday 
  morning  and crest near 12.5 feet around  2 PM Tuesday July 11 and 
  fall below flood stage around  8 PM Wednesday July 12.
* At 13.0 feet...South Mill Street lumber company built wall to 
  prevent flooding after December 1990 flood.  
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.5 feet which occurred 
  on Jul 1 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 4076 8635 4097 8592 4102 8577 4099 8577
      4087 8599 4072 8631             

$$

INC049-085-099-131-149-120132-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FL.W.0093.170712T1200Z-170716T0600Z/
/ORAI3.1.ER.170712T1200Z.170713T1800Z.170715T0600Z.NO/
933 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Tippecanoe River near Ora
* from Wednesday morning to late Saturday night.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 11.6 feet and steady.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Wednesday morning 
  and crest near 12.3 feet around  8 PM Thursday July 13 and fall 
  below flood stage around  2 AM Saturday July 15.
* At 12.5 feet...Flooding begins to affect residences near the river.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.1 feet which occurred 
  on Jun 29 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4109 8658 4116 8660 4117 8656 4117 8653
      4115 8657 4108 8655             

$$

INC091-141-149-120132-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FL.W.0094.170712T0300Z-170714T1200Z/
/DAVI3.1.ER.170712T0300Z.170712T0600Z.170713T1200Z.NO/
833 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Kankakee River at Davis
* from Tuesday evening to Friday morning.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 8.6 feet and falling.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Tuesday night  and
  crest near 10.1 feet around  1 AM Wednesday July 12 and fall below 
  flood stage around  7 AM Thursday July 13.
* At 10.0 feet...Flooding of low lying agricultural areas begins.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 10.4 feet which occurred 
  on Nov 4 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 4145 8667 4144 8661 4130 8673 4131 8679
      4143 8670                       

$$

OHC003-125-137-120132-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FL.W.0095.170711T1500Z-170713T0400Z/
/FTJO1.1.ER.170711T1500Z.170712T0000Z.170712T0400Z.NO/
933 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Auglaize River near Fort Jennings
* from Tuesday morning to late Wednesday night.
* At 9 PM Monday the stage was 4.6 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Tuesday morning  
  and crest near 13.6 feet around  8 PM Tuesday July 11 and fall 
  below flood stage around 12 AM Wednesday July 12.
* At 13.0 feet...Minor flooding begins in the northwest Ohio counties
  of northwest Allen, northeast Van Wert, and southwest Putnam. Farm 
  land nearest the Auglaize river will be affected by flood water.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 13.6 feet which occurred 
  on Dec 7 2011.

&&

LAT...LON 4081 8440 4101 8426 4100 8422 4092 8423
      4081 8433                       

$$

OHC137-120132-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FL.W.0096.170712T0000Z-170712T0600Z/
/KALO1.1.ER.170712T0000Z.170712T0000Z.170712T0000Z.NO/
933 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Ottawa River near Kalida
* from Tuesday evening to late Tuesday night.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 5.7 feet and steady.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage around
  8 PM Tuesday July 11.
* At 19.0 feet...Properties along lowland portions of the Ottawa 
  River near Kalida become impacted by flood waters. Water begins to 
  approach State Route 115 near the southeast village limits of 
  Kalida. 

&&

LAT...LON 4101 8425 4099 8420 4096 8417 4095 8420
      4098 8421 4099 8429             

$$

OHC137-120132-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FL.W.0097.170712T1500Z-170714T0936Z/
/OTTO1.1.ER.170712T1500Z.170713T0000Z.170713T0936Z.NO/
933 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Blanchard River at Ottawa
* from Wednesday morning to late Thursday night.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 10.6 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Wednesday morning 
  and crest near 23.5 feet around  8 PM Wednesday July 12 and fall 
  below flood stage around  5 AM Thursday July 13.
* At 23.0 feet...Lowland flooding occurs mainly in south Ottawa. 
  Flood water also gets into low farmlands.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.3 feet which occurred 
  on Dec 30 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4103 8429 4107 8429 4108 8404 4100 8401
      4104 8416                       

$$

INC001-003-OHC161-120132-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FL.W.0098.170711T1145Z-170713T1000Z/
/DCRI3.1.ER.170711T1145Z.170711T1800Z.170712T1000Z.NO/
933 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Saint Marys River near Decatur
* from Tuesday morning to Thursday morning.
* At 9 PM Monday the stage was 14.6 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Tuesday morning  
  and crest near 18.0 feet around  2 PM Tuesday July 11 and fall 
  below flood stage around  6 AM Wednesday July 12.
* At 18.5 feet...County Road 225 North...just north of Pleasant Mills
  Indiana is closed by flood water. Low land areas of Kekionga Park 
  on the southeast side of Decatur begin flooding. Flooding is 
  limited to farm land in Pleasant Mills Indiana and Wilshire Ohio.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 18.0 feet which occurred 
  on Jan 21 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 4093 8506 4094 8504 4084 8491 4082 8494


$$

OHC039-051-171-120132-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FL.W.0099.170711T1024Z-170715T1200Z/
/STRO1.1.ER.170711T1024Z.170712T0000Z.170714T1200Z.NO/
933 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Tiffin River near Stryker
* from Tuesday morning to Saturday morning.
* At 9 PM Monday the stage was 8.9 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Tuesday morning  
  and crest near 13.0 feet around  8 PM Tuesday July 11 and fall 
  below flood stage around  8 AM Friday July 14.
* At 13.0 feet...Flood waters begin to affect some farm buildings 
  near Stryker and flood some secondary roads.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 13.1 feet which occurred 
  on Dec 17 2011.

&&

LAT...LON 4130 8444 4149 8446 4159 8439 4159 8429
      4130 8438                       

$$
583 
WGUS43 KIWX 110927
FLWIWX


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
527 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...Flooding forecast for the following rivers in Indiana...Ohio...
  Tippecanoe River near Ora affecting Fulton...Kosciusko...Marshall...
  Pulaski and Starke Counties

Ottawa River near Kalida affecting Putnam County
  Auglaize River near Fort Jennings affecting Allen...Paulding and 
  Putnam Counties
  Blanchard River at Ottawa affecting Putnam County
  Saint Marys River near Decatur affecting Adams...Allen and Van Wert 
  Counties
  Tiffin River near Stryker affecting Defiance...Fulton and Williams 
  Counties

.Heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours will cause minor flooding on 
some rivers in the area. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC049-085-099-131-149-120927-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0093.170712T1200Z-170716T0600Z/
/ORAI3.1.ER.170712T1200Z.170713T1800Z.170715T0600Z.NO/
527 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Tippecanoe River near Ora
* from Wednesday morning to late Saturday night.
* At 4 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.8 feet and steady.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Wednesday morning
  and crest near 12.3 feet around  8 PM Thursday July 13 and fall 
  below flood stage around  2 AM Saturday July 15.
* At 12.5 feet...Flooding begins to affect residences near the river.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.1 feet which occurred 
  on Jun 29 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4109 8658 4116 8660 4117 8656 4117 8653
      4115 8657 4108 8655             

$$

OHC003-125-137-120926-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0095.170711T1215Z-170713T1430Z/
/FTJO1.1.ER.170711T1215Z.170712T0000Z.170712T1430Z.NO/
527 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Auglaize River near Fort Jennings
* until Thursday morning.
* At 4 AM Tuesday the stage was 10.3 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Tuesday morning 
  and crest near 15.6 feet around  8 PM Tuesday July 11 and fall 
  below flood stage around 10 AM Wednesday July 12.
* At 16.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins along the Auglaize River 
  with secondary roads and agricultural lands as well as homes 
  nearest the river being affected by flood waters. Some evacuations 
  of people and property may be necessary.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 15.1 feet which occurred 
  on Jun 28 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4081 8440 4101 8426 4100 8422 4092 8423
      4081 8433                       

$$

OHC137-120600-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0096.170712T0000Z-170712T0600Z/
/KALO1.1.ER.170712T0000Z.170712T0000Z.170712T0000Z.NO/
527 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Ottawa River near Kalida
* from this evening to late tonight.
* At 4 AM Tuesday the stage was 13.5 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage around
  8 PM Tuesday July 11.
* At 19.0 feet...Properties along lowland portions of the Ottawa 
  River near Kalida become impacted by flood waters. Water begins to 
  approach State Route 115 near the southeast village limits of 
  Kalida. 

&&

LAT...LON 4101 8425 4099 8420 4096 8417 4095 8420
      4098 8421 4099 8429             

$$

OHC137-120926-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0097.170712T1200Z-170714T1600Z/
/OTTO1.1.ER.170712T1200Z.170713T0000Z.170713T1600Z.NO/
527 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Blanchard River at Ottawa
* from Wednesday morning to Friday afternoon.
* At 4 AM Tuesday the stage was 15.3 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Wednesday morning
  and crest near 23.7 feet around  8 PM Wednesday July 12 and fall 
  below flood stage around 12 PM Thursday July 13.
* At 23.0 feet...Lowland flooding occurs mainly in south Ottawa. 
  Flood water also gets into low farmlands.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.3 feet which occurred 
  on Dec 30 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4103 8429 4107 8429 4108 8404 4100 8401
      4104 8416                       

$$

INC001-003-OHC161-120926-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0098.170711T1800Z-170712T1800Z/
/DCRI3.1.ER.170711T1800Z.170711T1800Z.170711T1800Z.NO/
527 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Saint Marys River near Decatur
* from this afternoon to Wednesday afternoon.
* At 5 AM Tuesday the stage was 16.4 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage around
  2 PM Tuesday July 11.
* At 17.0 feet...Agricultural flooding occurs along the river in 
  northern...central and eastern Adams County.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.3 feet which occurred 
  on Mar 14 2010.

&&

LAT...LON 4093 8506 4094 8504 4084 8491 4082 8494


$$

OHC039-051-171-120926-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0099.170711T1800Z-170715T0000Z/
/STRO1.1.ER.170711T1800Z.170713T1200Z.170714T0000Z.NO/
527 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Tiffin River near Stryker
* from this afternoon to Friday evening.
* At 4 AM Tuesday the stage was 9.8 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Tuesday afternoon 
  and crest near 11.3 feet around  8 AM Thursday July 13 and fall 
  below flood stage around  8 PM Thursday July 13.
* At 11.0 feet...Flooding of lowland areas around Stryker can be 
  expected.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 10.9 feet which occurred 
  on Jun 1 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4130 8444 4149 8446 4159 8439 4159 8429
      4130 8438                       

$$

INC017-085-103-169-183-110957-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-170714T0000Z/
/NMCI3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
527 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

The Flood Warning for the Eel River near North Manchester is cancelled. 

* At 4 AM Tuesday the stage was 5.9 feet and steady.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.

&&

LAT...LON 4076 8635 4097 8592 4102 8577 4099 8577
      4087 8599 4072 8631             

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jul 10, 6:09 AM EDT, 4 hours 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 6:09 AM EDT, 4 hours 44 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
609 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Two rounds of showers and storms are expected today. The first will
arrive this morning with isolated heavy rain and gusty winds
possible. The second round will arrive this evening with damaging
winds...hail...and heavy rain possible. This heavy rain could cause
isolated flooding...especially in areas that saw heavy rain on
Friday. A brief break is expected on Tuesday but additional storms
are expected Wednesday into Thursday. Heat and humidity values will
steadily increase through the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

MCS rolling across the Upper Midwest as expected this morning,
fueled by steep midlevel lapse rates, strong shear, and nearly 3000
J/kg of MUCAPE with excellent LLJ and associated moisture transport.
Forward propagating Corfidi vectors and thickness lines continue to
suggest more of an eastward turn this morning with main area of
convection moving into our CWA around 12Z. (Additional SCT storms
will likely continue in our east as well.) MCS maintenance
parameters not as favorable over our area with weaker midlevel lapse
rates and less supportive mean flow/shear (southerly 0-2 km SR winds
also less favorable with eastward hook into our area). While the
threat for an organized MCS/significant severe weather event is low,
ample 850mb moisture advection (850mb dewpoints near 15C) and still
modest lapse rates aloft will support up to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE with
enough flow to support an isolated damaging wind/hail threat. MCS
actually already looking a bit ragged on radar mosaic and suspect
impinging LLJ will favor additional development ahead of the main
line, beginning in our NW in a few hours. While isolated severe
threat is possible, heavy rain and flooding will be larger concern.
Widespread area of moderate rain seen on radar mosaic and expect
this will envelope our CWA later this morning. Atmospheric moisture
is not extremely high but PW values are over 1.5 inches and warm
cloud depths are around 12 kft. However, HRRR indicating more of a
north-south orientation to the line with limited backbuilding/
training potential and upstream rainfall reports so far have not
been particularly impressive for most areas. Main concern for flash
flooding will be in areas impacting by Friday's rain. Corridor of
Friday's rain was intense but also narrow with very little precip on
either side. Therefore expect just isolated flooding threat and will
hold with just ESF/HWO for now.

Question remains what the impact of this morning convection will be
on afternoon/evening activity. Typically this morning convection
would trash our evening chances but as previously noted, tremendous
low level moisture advection anticipated with 40+ kt LLJ sending a
pronounced 850mb theta-e ridge into our region from the Central
Plains. 850mb dewpoints approach 18C with PW values climbing near 2
inches. While the impact of morning storms remains somewhat unclear,
this moisture advection (in concert with midlevel lapse rates
climbing to 7 C/km) would suggest enough instability for a second
round of strong/severe storms this evening as SBCAPE values
potentially climb to near 3000 J/kg by 00Z. And with 40+ kts at
850mb and tremendous veering through the column, it will not take
much to produce organized clusters of storms with damaging winds.
While the threat of tornadoes is low due to lack of significantly
backed near-surface wind/"hockey-stick" hodographs, they cannot be
ruled out given good 0-1km shear/helicity and relatively low LCL's
in moist environment. Deep layer shear of 35-40 kts also supports
potential for supercells, assuming adequate instability, with hail
also a concern. Best chances of severe weather likely along and
south of US-30 in the 21-06Z timeframe as suggested by the WRF-ARW
given potentially less impact from morning activity and better
proximity to best moisture plume. However, difficult to rule out the
northern counties either. Heavy rain/flooding also obviously a
concern if instability field does recover and support widespread/
sustained updrafts. Will defer to day shift to nail down details
with benefit of seeing exactly how AM convection evolves but the
threat for both severe weather and flooding is certainly there.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Bright side to today's very active weather is that most 00Z guidance
now suggest enough ridging/subsidence in highly worked-over
environment to push boundary south of our area on Tuesday and give a
break from busy weather. A few storms possible in our far south Tues
afternoon but most of the CWA now appears dry and have cut back PoPs
even further. Break will be relatively short-lived though as next
trough approaches the northern Lakes and increasing/backing low
level flow will send front northward again late Tues night/Wed. Some
brief strong storms/heavy rain may be possible early Wed morning
(especially in our north) but best isentropic ascent and moisture
convergence appear to focus over central MI on Wed with our CWA in
capped warm sector. Better chances will arrive Wed night into Thu as
cold front finally pushes south and scours out moisture/instability.
Severe weather will be possible with this cold front given moderate
instability, decent shear, and good forcing. Much will depend on
exact timing though, which is a bit uncertain at this range. Dry to
end the work week but secondary cold front possible sometime late
Saturday per both latest GFS and ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Large area of tsra from srn Lake MI across nrn IL has been movg se
and expect this to continue this morning as mucape over nrn IN
>1000j/kg and latest VWP suggesting low level warm advection,
while not as strong as overnight, was still continuing. Airmass
expected to destabilize this aftn in the wake of the morning
convection, with redevelopment along frontal boundary extending
eastward from low currently over IA which will move east into nrn
IL this aftn/eve with these storms also likely impacting the
terminals. This low should continue ene tonight across srn MI
allowing a frontal boundary to move south into nrn IN in its wake.
Expect stratus/br with ifr/mvfr conditions will accompany this
front.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...JT

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 4:56 AM EDT, 5 hours 57 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
456 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-110900-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
456 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 /356 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Additional thunderstorms are expected this morning. Widespread
severe weather is not anticipated, but an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm is possible with isolated damaging winds...hail...and
locally heavy rainfall. Additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop this evening. Some of these storms may be severe with
damaging winds...hail...and heavy rain. Localized flooding is
possible...especially in areas that saw heavy rain on Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday and Thursday.
Severe weather may be possible but confidence is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-110900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
456 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this morning and again this evening. Some
of the storms may be strong to severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 9:09 AM EDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
909 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

INZ018-025-026-101345-
Huntington-Allen-Wells-
909 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN...
NORTHEASTERN HUNTINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN WELLS COUNTIES...

At 908 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Huntington,
moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Wayne, Huntington, Ossian, Markle, Roanoke, Zanesville,
Uniondale, Nine Mile, Bowerstown, Yoder, Poe and Mahon.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 between mile markers 0 and 10.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 287 and 299.

LAT...LON 4093 8557 4102 8515 4092 8505 4092 8507
      4085 8507 4081 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1308Z 253DEG 33KT 4089 8544

MARSILI
Local storm report, Jul 10, 9:11 AM EDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
911 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N HUNTINGTON          40.90N 85.51W
07/10/2017                   HUNTINGTON         IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMB ON VEHICLE AT HARDEES. DIME SIZED
            HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

&&

CR
Local storm report, Jul 10, 9:17 AM EDT, 1 hour 36 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
917 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE RUTLAND            41.21N 86.31W
07/10/2017                   MARSHALL           IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

CR
Local storm report, Jul 10, 9:33 AM EDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
933 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E BOURBON             41.30N 86.11W
07/10/2017  E0.62 INCH       MARSHALL           IN   MESONET

            RAINFALL IN 16 MINUTES.

&&

SKIP
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 9:47 AM EDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
947 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

INZ005-006-008-101445-
Lagrange-Noble-Elkhart-
947 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ELKHART...
NOBLE AND SOUTHERN LAGRANGE COUNTIES...

At 947 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near New Paris to near Syracuse to North
Webster. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kendallville, Ligonier, Lagrange, Albion, Rome City, Topeka,
Millersburg, Benton, Wolcottville, Cromwell, Brimfield, Honeyville,
Brushy Prairie, Big Long Lake, Plato, Bear Lake, Stroh, Mongo,
Indianola and Lisbon.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4169 8520 4139 8519 4129 8558 4130 8565
      4144 8565 4144 8572 4155 8580 4168 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 1347Z 248DEG 38KT 4154 8581 4143 8567 4131 8567

MARSILI
Local storm report, Jul 10, 10:06 AM EDT, 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1006 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N NORTH WEBSTER       41.35N 85.70W
07/10/2017  M1.00 INCH       KOSCIUSKO          IN   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

SKIP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Northern Indiana issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 9, 9:23 PM EDTRiver Flood WatchIWXFulton, Marshall, Pulaski, Starke5 days
Jul 10, 12:53 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXMiami37 min
Jul 10, 1:51 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXWells24 min
Jul 10, 2:22 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXWhitley23 min
Jul 10, 2:55 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXHuntington35 min
Jul 10, 3:11 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningIWXAllen, Huntington, Wells49 min
Jul 10, 4:13 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXAllen32 min
Jul 10, 4:46 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXAdams29 min
Jul 10, 8:51 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXNoble39 min
Jul 10, 9:00 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXFulton, Kosciusko, Marshall45 min
Jul 10, 9:09 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXHuntington36 min
Jul 10, 9:15 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningIWX90 min
Jul 10, 9:20 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningIWXElkhart, Fulton, Kosciusko, Marshall, Saint Joseph, Whitley40 min
Jul 10, 9:47 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXLaGrange, Noble58 min
Jul 10, 9:54 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryIWXDeKalb, Elkhart, Kosciusko, LaGrange, Noble, Steuben111 min
Jul 10, 10:09 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryIWXAdams, Allen, Huntington, Wells111 min
Jul 10, 2:49 PM EDTFlash Flood WatchIWXAdams, Allen, Blackford, Cass, Fulton, Grant and 10 more11 hr
Jul 10, 5:02 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXFulton43 min
Jul 10, 6:52 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXWhite53 min
Jul 10, 7:40 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementIWXCass50 min
Jul 10, 7:48 PM EDTTornado WarningIWXCass42 min
Jul 10, 7:55 PM EDTTornado WarningIWXMiami, Wabash50 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Indiana, 2017Every river flood warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.