Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Northern Indiana

598 
WWUS53 KIWX 051706
SVSIWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1206 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

INC003-033-151-OHC039-125-171-051716-
/O.EXP.KIWX.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-171105T1715Z/
Steuben IN-Allen IN-De Kalb IN-Defiance OH-Paulding OH-Williams OH-
1206 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN STEUBEN...
NORTHEASTERN ALLEN...EASTERN DE KALB...DEFIANCE...WESTERN PAULDING
AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1215 PM EST...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 4104 8462 4118 8511 4141 8487 4165 8487
      4167 8440 4162 8440 4162 8439 4155 8438
      4151 8438 4151 8437 4138 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 266DEG 39KT 4166 8438 4144 8433 4116 8452 

$$

FISHER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1007 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sun Nov 5 2017

A stalled warm front over the area this morning was responsible
for areas of dense fog and drizzle. Low pressure and an
associated cold front, will move through the region today and
early tonight bringing showers and thunderstorms to the entire
area. Severe weather and heavy rainfall remain a possibility,
especially south of a Monticello to Columbia City to Ottawa line.
Highs today will range from near 55 near Lake Michigan to the
lower 70s near Lima.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

2 areas of convection underway with one oriented west to east
which is working north along the warm front with occasional
rotation and stronger updraft development, but no severe weather
thus far. The other band from Plymouth to Mount Vernon IL was
well rooted in the warm sector moving rapidly ENE. Mid 60
dewpoints were streaming rapidly north and have made it already
to the US 30 corridor. Warm front may have been pushed NW somewhat
with approaching convection but still resides somewhere from
Goshen to Knox. Isolated severe will be possible with these cells
with local marginal severe hail and gusty winds.

HRRR shows a messy setup with convection continue to expand over
the next several hours. Impacts on the area with regards to severe
potential this afternoon remain uncertain, but given better
dynamics move in later, threat should still exist for parts of the
area.

Last but not least, dense fog advisory extended through 16Z with
low vsbys holding on across the north. Some signs of improvement
noted which should allow it to expire. Marine dense fog advisory
also issues through 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Issued a dense fog advisory earlier for areas northwest of the
initial warm front. The dense fog was persistent near the
Michigan and Indiana border with visibilities around one quarter
of a mile and occasionally lower. The visibilities will be slow to
recover over areas northwest of the front, with the dense fog
lingering well into the morning. For later today, have issued a
Flash Flood Watch for areas along and south of a line from
Monticello to Warsaw to Wauseon. Please see the Hydrology
discussion below for more information.

As far as severe storms, the best chance for large hail and
damaging winds is also over the same area as the flash flood
watch. Upper level support in the left exit region of a 110 knot
upper level jet will translate over the existing warm front and
provide plenty of lift for storms. Very large low level shear and
modest CAPE values from Marion to Lima by late afternoon are
likely to cause some storms to become severe. Given the proximity
of the front, low LCLs and the high amount of shear, tornadic
potential is certainly possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 420 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Following tonights episode of strong to severe storms, a tranquil
period is ahead with cool and dry conditions through Friday as an
upper level trof amplifies over the area. Highs will only be in
the 40s to around 50 with lows in the mid 20s to around 30 most
nights. The ECMWF appears too cold with lows in the lower 20s
Saturday morning. Have kept a low chance for precipitation
Saturday, although it appears chances for rain are better later
in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Dense fog was northwest of a front that had become stationary
early this morning. SBN was in this sector where the visibility
has been 1/4 mile for 9 hours except for a short break. Conditions
were a little better at FWA which was south of the front. The
front will eventually start moving southeast as a cold front later
today. Showers and storms are likely in the interim at both
sites. Conditions should start to improve by late tonight with VFR
conditions possible by daybreak at SBN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Several factors are expected to come together to enhance the flood
risk over areas along and south of a line from Monticello to
Warsaw to Wauseon. Precipitable water values will soar to near
1.75 inches and resemble more of a typical summer airmass than
one deep into the fall. The initial warm front had moved north
with showers and a few storms already developing early this
morning. Plenty of upper level just support will translate over
the area and enhance the heavy rain potential. After coordinating
with neighboring offices, have issued a flash flood watch for this
afternoon and tonight as these factors come together.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning for
     INZ003>007.

     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ008-009-016>018-
     020-022>027-032>034.

MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for MIZ077>081.

OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for OHZ001-002.

     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043-046.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Monday
     for LMZ043-046.

&&

UPDATE...Fisher
SYNOPSIS...Lashley/Fisher/Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Skipper
HYDROLOGY...Skipper

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
534 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-061045-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
534 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 /434 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of dense fog should lift by late morning for far southern Lower
Michigan and adjacent ares in northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.
See the Dense Fog Advisory product for more information.

Thunderstorms will become likely today and persist into this evening.
Severe storms are possible with large hail and damaging winds.
Isolated tornadoes and heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding are
also possible. The best chances for severe storms and flooding are
near and south of highway 24. Please see the Flash Flood Watch
product for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today and early tonight.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-061045-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
534 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms today into this evening. Gusty
winds and small hail are possible.

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Conditions hazardous to small craft will persist Monday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1104 AM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 AM     HAIL             EDDY                    41.54N 85.45W
11/05/2017  M0.88 INCH       LAGRANGE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1111 AM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW ROME CITY          41.50N 85.37W
11/05/2017                   NOBLE              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO LARGE TREES DOWNED ONTO POWER LINES ON
            SPRING BEACH ROAD.

&&

MCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1119 AM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     FLOOD            1 NW NAPPANEE           41.46N 86.00W
11/05/2017                   ELKHART            IN   PUBLIC

            STANDING WATER OVER MAPLE LANE. UNCERTAIN
            ABOUT DEPTH.

&&

MCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1124 AM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW LISBON            41.40N 85.33W
11/05/2017                   NOBLE              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE IN ROADWAY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1125 AM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW AVILLA             41.35N 85.25W
11/05/2017                   NOBLE              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON ROADWAY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1126 AM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     HAIL             2 E SALEM CENTER        41.59N 85.11W
11/05/2017  M0.50 INCH       STEUBEN            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 MINUTES OF VERY FLAT, DISC SHAPED HAIL.
            CONTINUED FROM 11:13 TO 11:20 AM.

&&

MCD