Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Northern Indiana

Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Cass County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Grant County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jay County, IN, Miami County, IN, Noble County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Allen County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Henry County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
144 AM EDT Sun Nov 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Nov 5 2017

A stalled warm front over the area this morning was responsible
for areas of dense fog and drizzle. Low pressure and an
associated cold front, will move through the region Sunday
afternoon and evening, bringing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Severe weather and heavy rainfall remain a
possibility, especially south of a Monticello to Columbia City to
Ottawa line. Temperatures overnight will rise into the upper 50s
and 60s. Highs Sunday will vary greatly from northwest to
southeast with highs in the upper 50s near Lake Michigan to to
middle to upper 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 356 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017

Several challenges to sort out for the period ranging from fog
tonight to severe weather/heavy rainfall potential Sunday
afternoon/evening.

Surge of low level moisture was well underway with 40 degree
dewpoints into the entire CWA and 50+ dewpoints edging into SW
areas (currently as far north as Rochester). Band of rain showers
and embedded storms has been weakening overall across the area
with the exception of 1 cell that has maintained active lightning
productions as well as periodic pea size hail as it tracks ENE.
Significantly backed off on more expansive likely pops and tried
to confine to current radar trends. Behind this, fog and drizzle
will settle in, likely for much of the night. Have held with areas
of fog with no mention of dense fog at this point, but something
to be monitored.

Focus shifts to severe/heavy rain threat as warm front sets up
somewhere across northern Indiana on Sunday. Models have all come
into agreement on main threat for severe weather being further
south, but exactly how far south remains the big question. Plenty
of moisture and shear as well as steep lapse rates will be
available southeast of the warm front. However, degree of surface
based instability to allow more robust parcel development will be
key in threat for severe weather. Lack of strong cyclogenesis may
prevent more backing of the low level wind fields and reduce
overall tornado threat, but EML and strong shear still could bring
some bowing segments of convection and damaging wind threat, with
localized backing of winds still possible for threat of isolated,
brief tornadoes. Additional details can be found in the latest Day
2 SPC Severe Outlook. With regards to flooding, climatologically
high moisture and potential for training of convection will
likely cause some areas of localized flooding anywhere in the warm
sector. With most areas able to take at least some rain and low
confidence where the strongest convection will setup, no hydro
headlines being issued (after discussion with ILN/CLE/IND). Will
continue zone and HWO mention.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017

High pressure will build south through the region and eventually
lay out to our southeast. This will keep any precip chances both
north and south of us through the period. Near or below normal
temperatures will be in store into the region and remain
entrenched through the remainder of the period. Lows Weds and
Thurs morning may very well drop below freezing in many areas with
the clear skies and light winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Nov 5 2017

Complicated forecast this period with a plethora of weather
concerns. Stalled warm front sitting just south of KSBN and north
of KFWA at issuance. Dense fog had formed along and north of this
weak boundary while BR and IFR conditions with low cigs was south
of the boundary. A wave of low pressure and a mid level jet is
expected to move toward the region on Sunday. As this occurs a
second warm front to our south will surge northward while a cold
front pushes in from the west. The combination of these factors
should generate tsra by mid to late morning, mainly southeast of
KSBN but close enough to warrant a VCTS. Strong to severe storms
are possible closer to KFWA mid to late afternoon as mid level
winds increase as core of stronger winds aloft push in near cold
front. Too uncertain to include stronger wind gust and hail
mention in terminal at this time but gust to 55 knots and large
hail possible with stronger storms. Winds will become northwest
behind front and expect conditions to improve to MVFR late
afternoon and evening as line of storms push east of KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     INZ003>009-012-014-016.

MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ077>081.

OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ001-002.

LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Lashley/Fisher
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...Lashley

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1108 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017

INZ003>005-MIZ077-078-050600-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Berrien-Cass MI-
Including the cities of Michigan City, La Porte, South Bend,
Mishawaka, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee,
Niles, Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Fair Plain, Benton Heights,
Buchanan, Paw Paw Lake, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, and Marcellus
1108 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 /1008 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2017/

...PATCHY DENSE FOG TO PERSIST...

Patchy dense fog will continue across far southwest Lower Michigan
into northwest Indiana. Visibilities will dip under a quarter of
a mile at times the rest of the night. If you are driving, slow
down and allow extra time to reach you destination.