Areal Flood Warning 32, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1217 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1217 PM EDT Sun Nov 5 2017

Low pressure and an associated cold front, will move through the
region today and early tonight bringing showers and thunderstorms to
the entire area with locally heavy rainfall. Severe weather remains
possible especially southeast of a Marion to Ottawa line this
afternoon. Highs  will range from near 55 near Lake Michigan to the
lower 70s near Lima.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

2 areas of convection underway with one oriented west to east
which is working north along the warm front with occasional
rotation and stronger updraft development, but no severe weather
thus far. The other band from Plymouth to Mount Vernon IL was
well rooted in the warm sector moving rapidly ENE. Mid 60
dewpoints were streaming rapidly north and have made it already
to the US 30 corridor. Warm front may have been pushed NW somewhat
with approaching convection but still resides somewhere from
Goshen to Knox. Isolated severe will be possible with these cells
with local marginal severe hail and gusty winds.

HRRR shows a messy setup with convection continue to expand over
the next several hours. Impacts on the area with regards to severe
potential this afternoon remain uncertain, but given better
dynamics move in later, threat should still exist for parts of the
area.

Last but not least, dense fog advisory extended through 16Z with
low vsbys holding on across the north. Some signs of improvement
noted which should allow it to expire. Marine dense fog advisory
also issues through 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Issued a dense fog advisory earlier for areas northwest of the
initial warm front. The dense fog was persistent near the
Michigan and Indiana border with visibilities around one quarter
of a mile and occasionally lower. The visibilities will be slow to
recover over areas northwest of the front, with the dense fog
lingering well into the morning. For later today, have issued a
Flash Flood Watch for areas along and south of a line from
Monticello to Warsaw to Wauseon. Please see the Hydrology
discussion below for more information.

As far as severe storms, the best chance for large hail and
damaging winds is also over the same area as the flash flood
watch. Upper level support in the left exit region of a 110 knot
upper level jet will translate over the existing warm front and
provide plenty of lift for storms. Very large low level shear and
modest CAPE values from Marion to Lima by late afternoon are
likely to cause some storms to become severe. Given the proximity
of the front, low LCLs and the high amount of shear, tornadic
potential is certainly possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 420 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Following tonights episode of strong to severe storms, a tranquil
period is ahead with cool and dry conditions through Friday as an
upper level trof amplifies over the area. Highs will only be in
the 40s to around 50 with lows in the mid 20s to around 30 most
nights. The ECMWF appears too cold with lows in the lower 20s
Saturday morning. Have kept a low chance for precipitation
Saturday, although it appears chances for rain are better later
in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Better diurnal mixing yielding some categorical improvement although
narrowing band of post frontal LIFR persists across the SBN terminal.
Otherwise well defined cold front demarcated by convection inbetween
will slowly work east near term and should clear FWA terminal toward
21Z. Until then tempo +TSRA and LIFR.

Otherwise general MVFR conditions expected as post frontal cold
advection wing deepens overnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Several factors are expected to come together to enhance the flood
risk over areas along and south of a line from Monticello to
Warsaw to Wauseon. Precipitable water values will soar to near
1.75 inches and resemble more of a typical summer airmass than
one deep into the fall. The initial warm front had moved north
with showers and a few storms already developing early this
morning. Plenty of upper level just support will translate over
the area and enhance the heavy rain potential. After coordinating
with neighboring offices, have issued a flash flood watch for this
afternoon and tonight as these factors come together.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning for
     INZ003>007.

     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ008-009-016>018-
     020-022>027-032>034.

MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for MIZ077>081.

OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for OHZ001-002.

     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043-046.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Monday
     for LMZ043-046.

&&

UPDATE...Fisher
SYNOPSIS...Lashley/Fisher/Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...T
HYDROLOGY...Skipper

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
534 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-061045-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
534 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 /434 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of dense fog should lift by late morning for far southern Lower
Michigan and adjacent ares in northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.
See the Dense Fog Advisory product for more information.

Thunderstorms will become likely today and persist into this evening.
Severe storms are possible with large hail and damaging winds.
Isolated tornadoes and heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding are
also possible. The best chances for severe storms and flooding are
near and south of highway 24. Please see the Flash Flood Watch
product for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today and early tonight.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-061045-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
534 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms today into this evening. Gusty
winds and small hail are possible.

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Conditions hazardous to small craft will persist Monday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1225 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 PM     FLOOD            1 S HALLOCK             41.51N 84.56W
11/05/2017                   WILLIAMS           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STANDING WATER ON ROADWAY. SMALL TREE DEBRIS
            ON NEIGHBORING ROADWAYS.

&&

KMB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>