Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
234 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

A shortwave over western Lake Superior will continue tracking
southeast through the western Great Lakes this afternoon and early
this evening. This will continue to set off showers and
thunderstorms as it tracks through the region. Ahead of this
shortwave, mesoanalysis shows SBCAPEs around 1000 J/kg with bulk
shear around 40 knots. Despite the abundant instability and shear
there is some concern regarding severe weather potential as
upstream activity is fairly tepid and MLCAPEs are only around 600
J/kg. However the shortwave is moving into an area with better
instability so the marginal risk for severe weather still appears
appropriate.

Regarding the anticipated severe weather type, if it occurs, looks
to be primarily hail given the colder temperatures aloft as wet-
bulb zero heights are only 8-9k ft AGL. However the 40 to 50 knots
of bulk shear does lend itself to wind damage so this cannot be
ruled out either. Any severe weather or general thunderstorms
would be over by the evening as the shortwave exits the region and
the loss of daytime heating takes away the added instability full
sunshine affords.

Depending on where the rain falls, light winds and mostly clear
skies could lead to some patchy fog across the region overnight.
However this could be offset by continued cold air advection and
some mixing afforded by the northerly winds. Dry, quiet weather is
expected on Saturday with mostly sunny skies. Some afternoon
cumulus is anticipated, but should not be enough to obscure the
sky for long.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Northwest flow will last Sunday into Monday before the ridge to
our west begins to break down and we enter a more zonal pattern.
During this time, a stationery front will remain across Wisconsin
with enough moisture and instability to produce showers and
thunderstorms through the midweek.

Shower and thunderstorm chances arrive Sunday afternoon as return
flow shifts to the south and southwest. Instability will be
greatest across southwestern and central Wisconsin, with the
possibility of a few strong storms in the area. Marginal severe
risk will be in place during the early evening as return flow
travels along a stalled cold front on Sunday.

Storms become a bit more organized on Monday as a low pressure
system travels just south of the area and pushes the quasi-
stationery front towards central and northern Wisconsin. A brief
respite is then possible on Tuesday as the low pressure center
moves off to the east.

The rest of the week will then continue to play with the
quasistationery front with enough moisture and instability to
bring in some additional convective systems on Wednesday and into
Thursday morning before another respite arrives into Friday
morning.

Temperatures during the period will remain around seasonal before
ending a few degrees above normal by the end of next week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

The main aviation forecast concern will be thunderstorms this
afternoon. Coverage is unlikely to be complete, so they may or may
not affect the TAF sites. Other than in the storms, VFR ceilings
and visibilities are expected through the TAF period.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Kurimski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
230 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-081930-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
230 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through early this evening.
A few of the storms could be severe, and produce hail around 1
inch in diameter and isolated damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

Thunderstorm chances will occur at times from Sunday through the
end of the next work week. Thunderstorms Sunday have marginal
chance to become severe during the afternoon and evening in
central Wisconsin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The limited scope of the severe risk makes formal spotter
activation unlikely. However, spotters are requested to report any
hail or wind gusts over 40 mph to the National Weather Service in
Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-081930-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
230 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through early this evening.
Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds and
small hail, which could pose a hazard to mariners.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

Thunderstorm chances will occur at times from Sunday through the
end of the next work week. Widespread severe weather is not
expected at this time.

Kurimski/Uhlmann

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
521 PM CDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     REEDSVILLE              44.16N 87.96W
07/07/2017                   MANITOWOC          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINES DOWN AND TREES UPROOTED IN CITY.

&&

SAC

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