Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Green Bay, WI

913 
WWUS53 KGRB 070047
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
747 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

WIC037-070130-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-170707T0130Z/
Florence WI-
747 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR FLORENCE COUNTY...

At 747 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles west of Florence to Tipler, moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Kingsford, Florence, Homestead, Tipler, Aurora, Commonwealth, Long
Lake, Lasalle Falls, Spread Eagle and Morgan Lake Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4599 8849 4600 8847 4598 8841 4599 8838
      4596 8833 4596 8825 4595 8824 4592 8810
      4588 8810 4587 8807 4581 8813 4578 8806
      4574 8806 4578 8868 4601 8868 4599 8867
      4598 8864 4602 8860 4601 8858 4602 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 282DEG 27KT 4593 8839 4592 8860 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kurimski

519 
WWUS53 KGRB 070058
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
758 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

WIC037-070130-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-170707T0130Z/
Florence WI-
758 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR FLORENCE COUNTY...

At 757 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Florence to 6 miles east of Tipler, moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. At 745 pm, 60 mph winds and 
         nickel size hail were reported 6 miles east, southeast of 
         Florence. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Kingsford, Florence, Homestead, Tipler, Aurora, Commonwealth, Long
Lake, Lasalle Falls, Spread Eagle and Morgan Lake Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4599 8849 4600 8847 4598 8841 4599 8838
      4596 8833 4596 8825 4595 8824 4592 8810
      4588 8810 4587 8807 4581 8813 4578 8806
      4574 8806 4578 8868 4601 8868 4599 8867
      4598 8864 4602 8860 4601 8858 4602 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 273DEG 28KT 4593 8829 4592 8850 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kurimski

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
643 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Isolated strong tstms have developed in the most unstable air
mass (CAPE 2500-3000 j/kg) in our southern counties, with
increasing severe convection occurring in NW WI and the western
U.P. near the cold front. Watch has been issued through midnight
for the entire CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Timing of convection continues to be elusive as mesoscale models
offer differing solutions this afternoon and this evening. While
some models do develop some convection later this afternoon, there
are some indications the main show could wait until later this
evening with the cold front with the activity currently over the
arrowhead of Minnesota. If the main activity waits until later
instability would not be as good across the region, therefore
diminishing the risk for severe weather. However if convection can
get going this afternoon it would have 2800 J/kg of SBCAPE per the
KGRB 18Z RAOB. The sounding also indicates large hail would be the
primary threat given the fat CAPE profile around the hail growth
zone and the fairly weak bulk shear of 20 knots. Given the
differing model solutions and lack of a strong forcing mechanism
confidence continues to be low regarding the timing of the
thunderstorm activity this afternoon and this evening.

Later periods appear to be a bit more clear as the models continue
to indicate additional activity Friday afternoon behind the cold
front as moisture lingers across the western Great Lakes with a
potent PV anomaly tracking through the region. This feature will
encounter MUCAPEs of 1000-2000 J/kg with bulk shear of 40 to 50
knots. The atmosphere behind the cold front will be conducive for
hail as the freezing levels fall to 8-9k ft AGL. Therefore the
upgrade on the SWODY2 of a marginal risk for severe weather
appears warranted given the risk for severe hail and some
damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

After the busy short term, precipitation through the weekend and
into next week focuses on more minor convection and temperatures.
Northwesterly flow and strong ridging will last through the
weekend before pushing through next week.

Friday night a few showers are possible overnight as a strong
shortwave moves through the area before clearing out. The
remainder of Saturday is currently expected to be dry as models
back off on the precipitation chances under a brief area of
surface high pressure. Another weak cold front is then expected to
head towards the region, with models disagreeing on the exact
arrival times, but trending towards Sunday morning to afternoon. A
period of showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms then
develops both Sunday afternoon.

Monday will feature showers as a warm front approaches with a low
pressure system and a more unstable air mass. Instability should
suffice in the afternoon to evening to once again get a few
thunderstorm chances out in the region. Continued rain chances
then arrive again later in the week on Tuesday and/or Wednesday
depending on how quickly the synoptic ridge over the Rockies
flattens out and the next shortwave moves through the region.

Temperatures will be around normal through the weekend before
rising to a few degrees above normal by the end of the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Have slowed down the arrival time of the thunderstorms this
evening, to roughly 01z-03z at RHI, 02z-04z at AUW/CWA, 03z-05z
at GRB/ATW and 04z-06z at MTW. Large hail and damaging winds may
accompany the storms. The threat of storms should end as the front
clears the area after 06z.

Scattered storms are expected to develop on Friday afternoon as
an upper level disturbance arrives. Hail and gusty winds may
accompany these storms as well.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
119 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-071830-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
119 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms with hail over 2 inches in diameter and wind
gusts over 60 mph are possible through this evening.

Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the evolution of
thunderstorms across the region this afternoon and this evening.

Clouds are clearing out from west to east this afternoon, however
there is quite a bit of capping in place across the region.
Models continue to indicate another round of storms is likely
during the afternoon and evening. Storms during this time will
pose a risk of very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, and
damaging winds. Be sure to closely monitor later forecasts and
statements on the potential for severe storms.

Heavy rainfall will also be possible with the storms, and that
could lead to ponding of water on area roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The chance for thunderstorms will return on Friday afternoon. A
few of the storms Friday could be strong to severe, with a
marginal risk for severe weather. The strongest storms could
produce hail up to 1 inch and near-severe wind gusts.

Thunderstorm chances will occur at times from Sunday into the
middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and
evening.

LMZ521-522-541>543-071830-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
119 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, including strong winds and large hail. Patchy fog will
also continue on the lake into the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and at
times Sunday through the middle of next week. Some of the storms
Friday afternoon could be strong to severe.

Kurimski

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
542 PM CDT THU JUL 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             NW WAUPACA              44.34N 89.06W
07/06/2017  M0.75 INCH       WAUPACA            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED JUST NW OF THE CITY NEAR HIGHWAY 49.

&&

KLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
629 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

WIZ048-070030-
Winnebago WI-
629 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WINNEBAGO COUNTY...

At 628 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fremont, or 12 miles southeast of Waupaca, moving southeast at 15
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Poygan, Winneconne, Butte Des Morts, Larsen, Orihula, Rivermoor,
Zittau, Harbor Springs, Clarks Point and Allenville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central and east central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4415 8889 4424 8889 4424 8854 4422 8847
      4404 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 307DEG 10KT 4425 8883

AK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
633 PM CDT THU JUL 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             WAUPACA                 44.34N 89.06W
07/06/2017  M1.50 INCH       WAUPACA            WI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SUBMITTED VIA INTERNET.

&&

KLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
633 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

WIZ045-070030-
Waushara WI-
633 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING TOWARD WESTERN WAUSHARA COUNTY...

At 632 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Plainfield, or 14 miles northeast of Friendship, moving
east at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Plainfield, Coloma and Hancock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4402 8960 4424 8960 4425 8950 4424 8950
      4424 8940 4398 8946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 283DEG 11KT 4416 8969

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
637 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

WIZ005-070045-
Vilas WI-
637 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 637 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles east of Wakefield to near Sanborn.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Boulder Junction around 730 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Trout Lake,
Manitowish Waters, Sayner, Star Lake and Presque Isle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4620 8939 4596 8920 4595 9004 4598 9004
      4598 8993 4630 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 335DEG 28KT 4651 8977 4649 9085

Kurimski

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
716 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

WIZ012-013-070100-
Florence WI-Northern Marinette County WI-
716 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FLORENCE COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM CDT...

At 715 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Florence, or 11 miles south of Crystal Falls, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Florence around 725 PM CDT.
  Homestead around 735 PM CDT.
  Kingsford around 740 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Aurora, Commonwealth,
Niagara, Lasalle Falls and Spread Eagle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4598 8842 4599 8838 4596 8833 4596 8825
      4595 8824 4595 8819 4592 8810 4588 8810
      4587 8807 4581 8813 4578 8809 4578 8805
      4579 8799 4577 8799 4576 8796 4575 8787
      4568 8778 4567 8780 4587 8852 4600 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 286DEG 30KT 4594 8838

Kurimski