Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
643 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Isolated strong tstms have developed in the most unstable air
mass (CAPE 2500-3000 j/kg) in our southern counties, with
increasing severe convection occurring in NW WI and the western
U.P. near the cold front. Watch has been issued through midnight
for the entire CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Timing of convection continues to be elusive as mesoscale models
offer differing solutions this afternoon and this evening. While
some models do develop some convection later this afternoon, there
are some indications the main show could wait until later this
evening with the cold front with the activity currently over the
arrowhead of Minnesota. If the main activity waits until later
instability would not be as good across the region, therefore
diminishing the risk for severe weather. However if convection can
get going this afternoon it would have 2800 J/kg of SBCAPE per the
KGRB 18Z RAOB. The sounding also indicates large hail would be the
primary threat given the fat CAPE profile around the hail growth
zone and the fairly weak bulk shear of 20 knots. Given the
differing model solutions and lack of a strong forcing mechanism
confidence continues to be low regarding the timing of the
thunderstorm activity this afternoon and this evening.

Later periods appear to be a bit more clear as the models continue
to indicate additional activity Friday afternoon behind the cold
front as moisture lingers across the western Great Lakes with a
potent PV anomaly tracking through the region. This feature will
encounter MUCAPEs of 1000-2000 J/kg with bulk shear of 40 to 50
knots. The atmosphere behind the cold front will be conducive for
hail as the freezing levels fall to 8-9k ft AGL. Therefore the
upgrade on the SWODY2 of a marginal risk for severe weather
appears warranted given the risk for severe hail and some
damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

After the busy short term, precipitation through the weekend and
into next week focuses on more minor convection and temperatures.
Northwesterly flow and strong ridging will last through the
weekend before pushing through next week.

Friday night a few showers are possible overnight as a strong
shortwave moves through the area before clearing out. The
remainder of Saturday is currently expected to be dry as models
back off on the precipitation chances under a brief area of
surface high pressure. Another weak cold front is then expected to
head towards the region, with models disagreeing on the exact
arrival times, but trending towards Sunday morning to afternoon. A
period of showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms then
develops both Sunday afternoon.

Monday will feature showers as a warm front approaches with a low
pressure system and a more unstable air mass. Instability should
suffice in the afternoon to evening to once again get a few
thunderstorm chances out in the region. Continued rain chances
then arrive again later in the week on Tuesday and/or Wednesday
depending on how quickly the synoptic ridge over the Rockies
flattens out and the next shortwave moves through the region.

Temperatures will be around normal through the weekend before
rising to a few degrees above normal by the end of the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Have slowed down the arrival time of the thunderstorms this
evening, to roughly 01z-03z at RHI, 02z-04z at AUW/CWA, 03z-05z
at GRB/ATW and 04z-06z at MTW. Large hail and damaging winds may
accompany the storms. The threat of storms should end as the front
clears the area after 06z.

Scattered storms are expected to develop on Friday afternoon as
an upper level disturbance arrives. Hail and gusty winds may
accompany these storms as well.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
119 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-071830-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
119 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms with hail over 2 inches in diameter and wind
gusts over 60 mph are possible through this evening.

Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the evolution of
thunderstorms across the region this afternoon and this evening.

Clouds are clearing out from west to east this afternoon, however
there is quite a bit of capping in place across the region.
Models continue to indicate another round of storms is likely
during the afternoon and evening. Storms during this time will
pose a risk of very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, and
damaging winds. Be sure to closely monitor later forecasts and
statements on the potential for severe storms.

Heavy rainfall will also be possible with the storms, and that
could lead to ponding of water on area roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The chance for thunderstorms will return on Friday afternoon. A
few of the storms Friday could be strong to severe, with a
marginal risk for severe weather. The strongest storms could
produce hail up to 1 inch and near-severe wind gusts.

Thunderstorm chances will occur at times from Sunday into the
middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and
evening.

LMZ521-522-541>543-071830-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
119 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, including strong winds and large hail. Patchy fog will
also continue on the lake into the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and at
times Sunday through the middle of next week. Some of the storms
Friday afternoon could be strong to severe.

Kurimski

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
856 PM CDT THU JUL 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N RHINELANDER         45.67N 89.41W
07/06/2017  E35 MPH          ONEIDA             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO HEAVY RAIN IN NEWBOLD AREA.

&&

TIMK

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