Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Green Bay, WI

801 
WWUS53 KGRB 070513
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1213 AM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

WIC137-070545-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-170707T0545Z/
Waushara WI-
1213 AM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAUSHARA COUNTY...

At 1213 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Westfield, or 9 miles southwest of Wautoma, moving southeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Dakota, Richford, Coloma and Hancock. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4417 8960 4399 8921 4398 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 304DEG 37KT 4399 8945 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$
Kieckbusch

899 
WWUS53 KGRB 070527
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1227 AM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

WIC137-070537-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-170707T0545Z/
Waushara WI-
1227 AM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAUSHARA COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4417 8960 4399 8921 4398 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 301DEG 38KT 4391 8927 

$$
Kieckbusch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1039 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Have cancelled the watch north of a line from Merrill to Sturgeon
Bay, but new development was still occurring south of the cold
front/gust front in central and east central WI, where MUCAPE was
still 1000-2000 j/kg. Isold severe still possible, so will keep
the watch going there until midnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Isolated strong tstms have developed in the most unstable air
mass (CAPE 2500-3000 j/kg) in our southern counties, with
increasing severe convection occurring in NW WI and the western
U.P. near the cold front. Watch has been issued through midnight
for the entire CWA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Timing of convection continues to be elusive as mesoscale models
offer differing solutions this afternoon and this evening. While
some models do develop some convection later this afternoon, there
are some indications the main show could wait until later this
evening with the cold front with the activity currently over the
arrowhead of Minnesota. If the main activity waits until later
instability would not be as good across the region, therefore
diminishing the risk for severe weather. However if convection can
get going this afternoon it would have 2800 J/kg of SBCAPE per the
KGRB 18Z RAOB. The sounding also indicates large hail would be the
primary threat given the fat CAPE profile around the hail growth
zone and the fairly weak bulk shear of 20 knots. Given the
differing model solutions and lack of a strong forcing mechanism
confidence continues to be low regarding the timing of the
thunderstorm activity this afternoon and this evening.

Later periods appear to be a bit more clear as the models continue
to indicate additional activity Friday afternoon behind the cold
front as moisture lingers across the western Great Lakes with a
potent PV anomaly tracking through the region. This feature will
encounter MUCAPEs of 1000-2000 J/kg with bulk shear of 40 to 50
knots. The atmosphere behind the cold front will be conducive for
hail as the freezing levels fall to 8-9k ft AGL. Therefore the
upgrade on the SWODY2 of a marginal risk for severe weather
appears warranted given the risk for severe hail and some
damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

After the busy short term, precipitation through the weekend and
into next week focuses on more minor convection and temperatures.
Northwesterly flow and strong ridging will last through the
weekend before pushing through next week.

Friday night a few showers are possible overnight as a strong
shortwave moves through the area before clearing out. The
remainder of Saturday is currently expected to be dry as models
back off on the precipitation chances under a brief area of
surface high pressure. Another weak cold front is then expected to
head towards the region, with models disagreeing on the exact
arrival times, but trending towards Sunday morning to afternoon. A
period of showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms then
develops both Sunday afternoon.

Monday will feature showers as a warm front approaches with a low
pressure system and a more unstable air mass. Instability should
suffice in the afternoon to evening to once again get a few
thunderstorm chances out in the region. Continued rain chances
then arrive again later in the week on Tuesday and/or Wednesday
depending on how quickly the synoptic ridge over the Rockies
flattens out and the next shortwave moves through the region.

Temperatures will be around normal through the weekend before
rising to a few degrees above normal by the end of the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Ongoing tstm activity should clear central and east central WI by
07z, with quiet conditions expected overnight. Patchy fog may
develop where significant rainfall occurred.

Scattered storms are expected to develop on Friday afternoon as
an upper level disturbance arrives. Hail and gusty winds may
accompany these storms as well.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
119 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-071830-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
119 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms with hail over 2 inches in diameter and wind
gusts over 60 mph are possible through this evening.

Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the evolution of
thunderstorms across the region this afternoon and this evening.

Clouds are clearing out from west to east this afternoon, however
there is quite a bit of capping in place across the region.
Models continue to indicate another round of storms is likely
during the afternoon and evening. Storms during this time will
pose a risk of very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, and
damaging winds. Be sure to closely monitor later forecasts and
statements on the potential for severe storms.

Heavy rainfall will also be possible with the storms, and that
could lead to ponding of water on area roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The chance for thunderstorms will return on Friday afternoon. A
few of the storms Friday could be strong to severe, with a
marginal risk for severe weather. The strongest storms could
produce hail up to 1 inch and near-severe wind gusts.

Thunderstorm chances will occur at times from Sunday into the
middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and
evening.

LMZ521-522-541>543-071830-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
119 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, including strong winds and large hail. Patchy fog will
also continue on the lake into the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and at
times Sunday through the middle of next week. Some of the storms
Friday afternoon could be strong to severe.

Kurimski

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1043 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

WIZ031-037>039-070445-
Waupaca WI-Shawano WI-Outagamie WI-Brown WI-
1043 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

At 1040 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Clintonville, or 16 miles south of Shawano, moving east at 30
mph. Other strong storms were located near Leeman and Seymour.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Green Bay, Kaukauna, Clintonville, Black Creek, Embarrass, Navarino
Wildlife Area, Oneida, De Pere, Howard and Ashwaubenon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4451 8885 4468 8876 4460 8800 4425 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 289DEG 35KT 4456 8870

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1131 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

WIZ038-039-049-050-070515-
Calumet WI-Outagamie WI-Manitowoc WI-Brown WI-
1131 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BROWN...NORTHERN
CALUMET...SOUTHEASTERN OUTAGAMIE AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM
CDT...

At 1130 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Little Chute, or near Appleton, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  High Cliff State Park around 1140 PM CDT.
  Brillion around 1155 PM CDT.
  Valders and St. Nazianz around 1210 AM CDT.
  Manitowoc around 1215 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include St Nazianz, Killsnake
Wildlife Area, Kellners Corners, Madsen, Reedsville, Grimms, Taus,
Newtonberg, Askeaton and Maple Grove.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern and east central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4416 8841 4423 8840 4438 8828 4410 8758
      4389 8775 4389 8782
TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 300DEG 32KT 4427 8830

RDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1137 PM CDT THU JUL 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND GST     SEYMOUR                 44.51N 88.33W
07/06/2017  E60 MPH          OUTAGAMIE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WIND GUST TO 60 MPH. TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES
            DOWN. POWER OUTAGES CITYWIDY, APPROX. 3400 CUSTOMERS
            AFFECTED.

&&

KLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1142 PM CDT THU JUL 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 PM     HAIL             KAUKAUNA                44.28N 88.27W
07/06/2017  M0.75 INCH       OUTAGAMIE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

&&

KLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1152 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

WIZ039-050-070530-
Manitowoc WI-Brown WI-
1152 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BROWN AND CENTRAL
MANITOWOC COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1152 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Brillion, or 14 miles northwest of Manitowoc, moving
southeast at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Manitowoc, Valders, Two Rivers, Newton, Morrison, Cato, Reedsville,
Maple Grove, Whitelaw and Francis Creek.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern and east central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4412 8804 4422 8804 4433 8795 4415 8750
      4407 8759 4394 8767
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 300DEG 44KT 4418 8791

RDM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1154 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

WIZ030-031-035>040-045-048>050-070600-
Marathon-Shawano-Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-
Waushara-Winnebago-Calumet-Manitowoc-
1154 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT...BUT THE
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST A BIT LONGER...

At 1145 pm, clusters of thunderstorms continue to push across
central and east-central Wisconsin. The storms will be nearing the
southern edge of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch by its scheduled
expiration time of midnight. Although the threat for large hail
and damaging winds will persist in Waushara, Winnebago, Calumet,
and Manitowoc counties until about 1230 am, it probably won't
last too much longer than that. As a result, the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will be allowed to expire at midnight.

Skowronski