Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
516 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017

Closed upper low is still centered near the Arizona/Mexico border
with diffluent southwest flow over the Southern Plains extending into
the Central Rockies and Central High Plains. A stalled front is
beginning to lift north as a warm front wind is now orientated just
south of Interstate 70.

This afternoon-Tonight: Shortwave trough currently rotating around
eastern periphery of closed low will continue to move over eastern
Colorado with large scale ascent and deep plume of moisture
spreading towards our CWA. Thunderstorm activity should initially be
in eastern Colorado, though I can't rule out isolated activity along
frontal zone (hinted at by some short range guidance). Models
continue to favor increasing coverage from the west, with
propagating eastward along frontal zone (likely dependent on cold
pool development).

Deep shear is already in place with effective shear values shown by
RAP in the 40kt+ range. Instability is still building and this may
be the biggest question mark for most of our CWA due to impacts of
cloud cover. Models are showing max CAPE values in excess of 1500
J/KG by 6 PM MDT which is adequate, but trends haven't matched up
yet. Another consideration is potential for enhanced low level shear
along frontal zone that could support tornado development
(particularly in our west), but this still seems conditional on more
discreet cells in this region (current trend is towards clusters.
Early in the event (over eastern Colorado) we may see thunderstorms
training and this could support a better chance for flash flooding.
Storm motions are generally going to be 30kt or higher, so flood
threat will be more localized and limited to early part of the event
tonight.

Wednesday: Models show a region of subsidence/dry slot shifting over
our CWA during the morning hours before large scale ascent
overspreads our CWA during the afternoon. Expect shower and
thunderstorm coverage to increase across the area through the
afternoon. Front will push back south shifting main axis of
instability with it, but we may still see a limited severe threat
with lingering elevated instability. A greater concern will be the
slow storm motions and potential for back building of thunderstorms
that could create a better threat for flash flooding than today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017

Thunderstorms and rain will start off the extended period due to a
closed low pressure system continuing its way northeast towards the
CWA. Wednesday night will likely be the ideal time for storms to
develop as instability is the best. But, as the overnight hours
progress the instability factors start to diminish and most of the
precipitation turns to rain (with isolated lightning possible).

Thursday, the closed low shifts east before moving over the CWA and
skirts to the south of the area. This will keep most of the
instability to the south and continue rain chances over the area
(will not rule out isolated non-severe storms though). The rain is
expected to diminish through the afternoon from northwest to
southeast as the low moves southeast. By the end of the day, a ridge
is expected to move into the region from the west.

Friday through the weekend will primarily be dry due to the ridge
sitting over the CWA. By the end of the weekend southwest flow will
start to push into the region and bring moisture into the area. This
is due to a trough developing over the Pacific Northwest.

Monday will be a day to keep an eye on due to an upper level
shortwave trough looking to move through the trough and over the
region. This could potentially bring thunderstorm chances to
portions of the area (current guidance is showing along and north of
Interstate 70). Tuesday looks to dry out again with that shortwave
moving northeast of the region.

Temperatures during the period will be in the 50s/60s on Thursday due
to the region being on the back side of that trough. Friday will
increase into to the 70s. The weekend through Tuesday will be in the
80s, with Tuesday seeing some decreasing temperatures along the
northwest portion of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 454 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017

Main issue will be the expected storms spreading east across the
forecast area this evening and overnight behind the advancing cold
front. There maybe enough elevated instability for the severe
threat to continue past 6z. KGLD would have the most prolonged
window for severe storms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
941 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-110345-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
941 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017 /1041 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1AM MDT/2AM CDT.

Thunderstorm activity will continue moving eastward this evening.
The severe threat will begin to decrease from the west to the east
before midnight. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main
threats across the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Severe thunderstorms will be possible once again Wednesday afternoon
and evening across the area, with the best chance for severe weather
south of Interstate 70. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
main threats.

Locally heavy rainfall from slow moving thunderstorms over already
saturated soils may lead to flash flooding Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
908 PM MDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     HAIL             1 WSW MCDONALD          39.78N 101.39W
05/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER AND LOCAL FIRE DEPT REPORTED MAINLY
            DIMES AND NICKELS WITH A FEW QUARTERS MIXED IN. VEHICLE
            SLIDE OFF DUE TO FOG AND HAIL COVERING THE ROAD AT THE
            RAWLINS/CHEYENNE COUNTY LINE.

&&

TLYNCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
913 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

KSZ001-002-013-014-100345-
Rawlins KS-Thomas KS-Sherman KS-Cheyenne KS-
913 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE...WESTERN
THOMAS...SOUTHWESTERN RAWLINS AND NORTHEASTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 945 PM MDT/1045 PM CDT/...

At 913 PM MDT/1013 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles northwest of
Brewster to 5 miles northwest of Levant. Movement was northeast at 30
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Colby, Levant, McDonald and Beardsley.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 41 and 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT/200 AM
CDT/ for northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3985 10132 3970 10097 3939 10093 3914 10128
      3937 10131 3949 10159
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 219DEG 27KT 3950 10147 3942 10127 3926 10125

Husted

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
952 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

COZ092-KSZ027-041-042-100430-
Cheyenne County CO-Wichita KS-Wallace KS-Greeley KS-
952 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN WICHITA...SOUTHWESTERN WALLACE
AND GREELEY COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 1030 PM MDT/1130 PM
CDT/...

At 952 PM MDT/1052 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 12 miles north of Towner to
9 miles south of Tribune. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tribune, Horace, Lydia and Selkirk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT/200 AM
CDT/ for west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3854 10205 3862 10205 3862 10211 3867 10216
      3888 10177 3827 10121 3826 10180
TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 247DEG 33KT 3864 10204 3833 10173

Husted