Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
455 PM MDT Wed May 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed May 10 2017

Closed mid-upper low will bring periods of showers and
thunderstorms to our CWA this afternoon through Thursday
afternoon as it tracks from the Four Corners region (current) and
across southern Kansas tonight and Thursday. Stalled front is near
our southern CWA and will act as a focus for early initiation. A
cold front is slowly moving into northeast Colorado, and this will
move into our CWA later this evening as the main upper low begins
to slide into the plains. A shortwave trough rotating around the
upper low is now moving into southeast Colorado and thunderstorm
activity is beginning to increase in this area.

Clearing skies have allowed instability to increase and latest
analysis shows axis of 2000 J/KG SB CAPE extending over our CWA and
this may increase a little more before cold front moves through this
evening. 0-6 km shear exceeds 50kt, but this is heavily weighted by
the 600-500mb layer, and effective shear is actually much less. Low
level shear is particularly unimpressive. Due to the lower effective
shear values, confidence is low in more organized cells across much
of our CWA (pulse type thunderstorms more likely). Frontal zone near
surface low may initially behave more like a warm front this
afternoon and bulge northward as shortwave approaches, and this may
result in a little better low level shear and could support a few
super cells. Trend still seems to support better severe threat south
of Nebraska state line, and in particular south of I-70 (closer to
frontal zone).

We are still looking at a favorable track on the upper low for a
deformation zone to track across our CWA, and strong forcing will
combine with good moisture advection to produce widespread showers
(embedded thunderstorms) from this evening through early Thursday
afternoon (when upper low shifts east). Periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall appear likely. Thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening
will tend to have slow storm motions which is concerning considering
recent rainfall. Other that early in the event, the rest of the
precipitation may occur over a prolonged enough period of time to
keep any flood threat very localized. Ponding/runoff may be more of
an issue than flash flooding, and this will need to monitored. Due
to the localized nature of the flood threat, the decision was made
not to issue a flood watch at this time.

Temperatures Thursday are going to be highly dependent on precip
clearing, and there is a chance that some locations Thursday may not
see low clouds clear until almost sunset. This could keep highs
closer to 50 degrees (not far from morning lows).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Wed May 10 2017

The first half of the long term period (Thursday night through
Sunday) will start off dry with a ridge over the region. Then the
second half of the period (Monday through Wednesday) will have the
potential for returned precipitation chances over portions of the
region.

After the ridge begins to move east, southwest flow will start to
move into the area on Sunday due to a strong trough in the western
CONUS. As the trough slowly moves east there will be embedded
shortwave troughs that move over the region each day. These could
create chances for precipitation over the CWA, but current guidance
does not show a very strong signal for wide spread precipitation
chances or severe storms. The beginning of next week will need to be
monitored.

Temperatures during the period will be in the 70s on Friday, then an
increase into the 80s through the remainder of the period. Sunday
could see some low 90s over the eastern portions of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 455 PM MDT Wed May 10 2017

For both taf sites...a mix of conditions is expected thru the
forecast period from VFR down to LIFR. Ceilings will range from
BKN-OVC050 down to OVC007-010 at time...especially after 08z
Thursday. Generally 3-6sm in light/moderate showers and thunder.
1sm at times in heavier showers...especially for KGLD. VFR for
KGLD after 20z Thursday...and 12z Thursday for KMCK. Winds NNE
10-15kts with gusts to 25kts thru 03z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1128 AM MDT Wed May 10 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111730-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1128 AM MDT Wed May 10 2017 /1228 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with showers and
thunderstorms increasing in coverage through the early evening.
Widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are then expected
later this evening through tonight. Severe thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and early this evening mainly along and south
of Interstate 70. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threat. Tornadoes will be possible south of Highway 40.

After the strongest storms end early this evening, moderate to heavy
rainfall is expected across the region this evening through midday
Thursday. This could lead to local flash flooding, ponding of water,
and rises on areas of rivers and creeks.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required after 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT) through
7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT).

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
339 PM MDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             4 N GOODLAND            39.41N 101.71W
05/10/2017  M0.25 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
346 PM MDT WED MAY 10 2017

COZ091-092-102230-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-
346 PM MDT WED MAY 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHEYENNE AND SOUTHEASTERN
KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 345 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Cheyenne Wells, moving northwest at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cheyenne Wells and Firstview.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 144 and 172.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3895 10206 3863 10247 3879 10275 3923 10206
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 125DEG 9KT 3892 10222

Lockhart

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
418 PM MDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             5 S GOODLAND            39.28N 101.71W
05/10/2017  M0.88 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEAR RD 62 ON HIGHWAY 27 SOUTH

&&

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
502 PM MDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HAIL             5 SE GOODLAND           39.30N 101.64W
05/10/2017  M1.00 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
512 PM MDT WED MAY 10 2017

COZ092-KSZ027-041-110015-
Cheyenne County CO-Wallace KS-Greeley KS-
512 PM MDT WED MAY 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO...WALLACE AND NORTHWESTERN GREELEY COUNTIES IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

At 511 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Kit Carson to 9 miles
northwest of Wallace. Movement was north at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cheyenne Wells, Sharon Springs, Weskan, Wallace, Firstview and
Arapahoe.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 136 and 167.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 10274 3912 10156 3879 10155 3861 10194
      3862 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 185DEG 17KT 3871 10271 3903 10169

Lockhart

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 PM MDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     HAIL             1 W COLBY               39.39N 101.06W
05/10/2017  M1.00 INCH       THOMAS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JN