Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
516 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017

Closed upper low is still centered near the Arizona/Mexico border
with diffluent southwest flow over the Southern Plains extending into
the Central Rockies and Central High Plains. A stalled front is
beginning to lift north as a warm front wind is now orientated just
south of Interstate 70.

This afternoon-Tonight: Shortwave trough currently rotating around
eastern periphery of closed low will continue to move over eastern
Colorado with large scale ascent and deep plume of moisture
spreading towards our CWA. Thunderstorm activity should initially be
in eastern Colorado, though I can't rule out isolated activity along
frontal zone (hinted at by some short range guidance). Models
continue to favor increasing coverage from the west, with
propagating eastward along frontal zone (likely dependent on cold
pool development).

Deep shear is already in place with effective shear values shown by
RAP in the 40kt+ range. Instability is still building and this may
be the biggest question mark for most of our CWA due to impacts of
cloud cover. Models are showing max CAPE values in excess of 1500
J/KG by 6 PM MDT which is adequate, but trends haven't matched up
yet. Another consideration is potential for enhanced low level shear
along frontal zone that could support tornado development
(particularly in our west), but this still seems conditional on more
discreet cells in this region (current trend is towards clusters.
Early in the event (over eastern Colorado) we may see thunderstorms
training and this could support a better chance for flash flooding.
Storm motions are generally going to be 30kt or higher, so flood
threat will be more localized and limited to early part of the event
tonight.

Wednesday: Models show a region of subsidence/dry slot shifting over
our CWA during the morning hours before large scale ascent
overspreads our CWA during the afternoon. Expect shower and
thunderstorm coverage to increase across the area through the
afternoon. Front will push back south shifting main axis of
instability with it, but we may still see a limited severe threat
with lingering elevated instability. A greater concern will be the
slow storm motions and potential for back building of thunderstorms
that could create a better threat for flash flooding than today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017

Thunderstorms and rain will start off the extended period due to a
closed low pressure system continuing its way northeast towards the
CWA. Wednesday night will likely be the ideal time for storms to
develop as instability is the best. But, as the overnight hours
progress the instability factors start to diminish and most of the
precipitation turns to rain (with isolated lightning possible).

Thursday, the closed low shifts east before moving over the CWA and
skirts to the south of the area. This will keep most of the
instability to the south and continue rain chances over the area
(will not rule out isolated non-severe storms though). The rain is
expected to diminish through the afternoon from northwest to
southeast as the low moves southeast. By the end of the day, a ridge
is expected to move into the region from the west.

Friday through the weekend will primarily be dry due to the ridge
sitting over the CWA. By the end of the weekend southwest flow will
start to push into the region and bring moisture into the area. This
is due to a trough developing over the Pacific Northwest.

Monday will be a day to keep an eye on due to an upper level
shortwave trough looking to move through the trough and over the
region. This could potentially bring thunderstorm chances to
portions of the area (current guidance is showing along and north of
Interstate 70). Tuesday looks to dry out again with that shortwave
moving northeast of the region.

Temperatures during the period will be in the 50s/60s on Thursday due
to the region being on the back side of that trough. Friday will
increase into to the 70s. The weekend through Tuesday will be in the
80s, with Tuesday seeing some decreasing temperatures along the
northwest portion of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 454 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017

Main issue will be the expected storms spreading east across the
forecast area this evening and overnight behind the advancing cold
front. There maybe enough elevated instability for the severe
threat to continue past 6z. KGLD would have the most prolonged
window for severe storms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
600 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-110000-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
600 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017 /700 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1AM MDT/2AM CDT.

Thunderstorm activity will continue this evening in Colorado and
Kansas, and spread northeast and increase in coverage. The severe
threat will begin to decrease from the west to the east after before
midnight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats
across the area. Tornadoes will be possible mainly west of the
Colorado state line this afternoon and early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Severe thunderstorms will be possible once again Wednesday afternoon
and evening across the area, with the best chance for severe weather
south of Interstate 70. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
main threats.

Locally heavy rainfall from slow moving thunderstorms over already
saturated soils may lead to flash flooding Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
614 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

COZ092-100045-
Cheyenne County CO-
614 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

At 613 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Kit Carson, or 19 miles southwest of Cheyenne
Wells, moving north at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Cheyenne County in east central Colorado.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT for
east central Colorado.

LAT...LON 3864 10260 3864 10271 3885 10277 3885 10252
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 189DEG 19KT 3868 10266

Husted

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