Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
319 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Models continue to show upper level disturbance impacting the area
late this afternoon through evening, with more storm coverage than
the last few days. These storms could take on a more organized
structure as they move into north Georgia. Have continued likely
pops through the evening hours when storm coverage should be
highest. At this time, short term HiRes solutions suggest activity
should diminish into the overnight period with the loss of daytime
heating.

Some storms this evening could be strong, and will certainly be
efficient rain producers. Although the better dynamics will
accompany the disturbance as it moves over the area, the best
instability and moisture do remain south of a stationary boundary
over central Georgia. Regardless, PWs are high, and with westerly
flow feeding in ample moisture ahead of the boundary, could see
hourly rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches, with the possibility of
up to 4 inches in areas where storms have little movement or train
over the same area. Stay alert to changing conditions and
warnings/advisories, particularly in northwest Georgia. WPC has far
north Georgia in a marginal risk for flash flooding through tonight.

Boundary just meanders over middle Georgia Tuesday with no real
focus for convective development. At this time, have opted for
slightly lower pops than the previous forecast package, with good
chance pops over the area.

31

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
No major changes from the previous forecast. Previous long term
discussion follows...

17

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

We will go through most of the long term under a moist and
unstable airmass as a mid-level ridge of high pressure continues
to build into the area through mid-week. As we approach the
weekend, a digging trough will emerge from the Great Lakes region
eventually moving east, undercutting the existing ridge. A
trailing front associated with this low will move south into the
area Friday night into early Saturday, eventually stalling across
central/southern GA through the remainder of the weekend.

Given this synoptic pattern, we can expect to have scattered to
numerous showers/thunderstorms through much of the work-week.
There may be a bit less coverage Saturday behind the front,
especially across the north. Looking a bit further at the upper
level support, one could argue that we should see a bit more
coverage of precipitation across the northern tier on Friday and
then across central GA Saturday ahead/along the front. While this
is toward the end of the forecast period, models have been fairly
consistent in bringing a front across the region near the
beginning of the weekend. Confidence in the exact timing and
intensity of the frontal passage and associated precipitation
activity is low.

Temperatures will be around normal, perhaps a bit above normal
Thursday and Friday with southerly flow ahead of the incoming
front.

26

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
West winds expected through the period, with speeds of 10kt or
less, except gusts to 20kt in/near convection. SCT-BKN VFR this
afternoon will diminish with loss of daytime heating. FEW-SCT MVFR
cigs possible after 08z, with IFR- MVFR vsbys. TSRA possible
today through 01-02z, then again 21-00z Tuesday. VCSH beginning
around 17-18z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  91  72  92 /  70  30  20  20
Atlanta         72  87  72  89 /  70  40  20  20
Blairsville     69  83  69  86 /  70  40  20  30
Cartersville    72  88  71  89 /  50  50  20  20
Columbus        76  91  76  92 /  40  50  30  40
Gainesville     72  87  72  89 /  70  30  20  20
Macon           74  92  74  92 /  50  40  20  30
Rome            73  88  72  90 /  40  50  20  20
Peachtree City  72  88  72  90 /  60  50  20  30
Vidalia         76  93  76  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
352 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-150800-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
352 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. A few strong
to severe storms are possible. The primary hazards will be gusty
winds, frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall. With soils at
or approaching saturation across much of north and central
Georgia, localized flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There will be scattered to numerous thunderstorms each day,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms
could be strong with the main hazards being gusty winds, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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