Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
319 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Models continue to show upper level disturbance impacting the area
late this afternoon through evening, with more storm coverage than
the last few days. These storms could take on a more organized
structure as they move into north Georgia. Have continued likely
pops through the evening hours when storm coverage should be
highest. At this time, short term HiRes solutions suggest activity
should diminish into the overnight period with the loss of daytime
heating.

Some storms this evening could be strong, and will certainly be
efficient rain producers. Although the better dynamics will
accompany the disturbance as it moves over the area, the best
instability and moisture do remain south of a stationary boundary
over central Georgia. Regardless, PWs are high, and with westerly
flow feeding in ample moisture ahead of the boundary, could see
hourly rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches, with the possibility of
up to 4 inches in areas where storms have little movement or train
over the same area. Stay alert to changing conditions and
warnings/advisories, particularly in northwest Georgia. WPC has far
north Georgia in a marginal risk for flash flooding through tonight.

Boundary just meanders over middle Georgia Tuesday with no real
focus for convective development. At this time, have opted for
slightly lower pops than the previous forecast package, with good
chance pops over the area.

31

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
No major changes from the previous forecast. Previous long term
discussion follows...

17

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

We will go through most of the long term under a moist and
unstable airmass as a mid-level ridge of high pressure continues
to build into the area through mid-week. As we approach the
weekend, a digging trough will emerge from the Great Lakes region
eventually moving east, undercutting the existing ridge. A
trailing front associated with this low will move south into the
area Friday night into early Saturday, eventually stalling across
central/southern GA through the remainder of the weekend.

Given this synoptic pattern, we can expect to have scattered to
numerous showers/thunderstorms through much of the work-week.
There may be a bit less coverage Saturday behind the front,
especially across the north. Looking a bit further at the upper
level support, one could argue that we should see a bit more
coverage of precipitation across the northern tier on Friday and
then across central GA Saturday ahead/along the front. While this
is toward the end of the forecast period, models have been fairly
consistent in bringing a front across the region near the
beginning of the weekend. Confidence in the exact timing and
intensity of the frontal passage and associated precipitation
activity is low.

Temperatures will be around normal, perhaps a bit above normal
Thursday and Friday with southerly flow ahead of the incoming
front.

26

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
West winds expected through the period, with speeds of 10kt or
less, except gusts to 20kt in/near convection. SCT-BKN VFR this
afternoon will diminish with loss of daytime heating. FEW-SCT MVFR
cigs possible after 08z, with IFR- MVFR vsbys. TSRA possible
today through 01-02z, then again 21-00z Tuesday. VCSH beginning
around 17-18z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  91  72  92 /  70  30  20  20
Atlanta         72  87  72  89 /  70  40  20  20
Blairsville     69  83  69  86 /  70  40  20  30
Cartersville    72  88  71  89 /  50  50  20  20
Columbus        76  91  76  92 /  40  50  30  40
Gainesville     72  87  72  89 /  70  30  20  20
Macon           74  92  74  92 /  50  40  20  30
Rome            73  88  72  90 /  40  50  20  20
Peachtree City  72  88  72  90 /  60  50  20  30
Vidalia         76  93  76  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
352 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-150800-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
352 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. A few strong
to severe storms are possible. The primary hazards will be gusty
winds, frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall. With soils at
or approaching saturation across much of north and central
Georgia, localized flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There will be scattered to numerous thunderstorms each day,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms
could be strong with the main hazards being gusty winds, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

GAZ025-027-036-141930-
Madison GA-Jackson GA-Clarke GA-
255 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHERN CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 255 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Oconee Heights, or
near Athens...moving northeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. If you can
           hear thunder...you are close enough to be struck by
           lightning. Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding
           especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Athens, Arcade, Nicholson, Hull, Athens-Clarke County, Westgate Park,
James Holland Youth Sports Cmpx, Bear Creek Reservoir, Beechwood
Hills, Sandy Creek Recreation Area, Oconee Heights and Barretts Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.  Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3403 8327 3392 8339 3397 8354 3399 8355
      3415 8350
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 203DEG 7KT 3399 8344

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
405 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

GAZ060-061-073-142030-
Putnam GA-Baldwin GA-Hancock GA-
405 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM...NORTHERN
BALDWIN AND NORTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 405 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Plant Harlee Branch,
or 8 miles southeast of Eatonton...moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. If you can
           hear thunder...you are close enough to be struck by
           lightning. Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding
           especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Sparta, Rockville, Shoulderbone, Oconee Springs Park and Plant Harlee
Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.  Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3315 8329 3327 8336 3340 8322 3340 8321
      3338 8322 3340 8320 3336 8316 3342 8307
      3327 8294
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 234DEG 20KT 3323 8330

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
426 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

GAZ050-060-061-073-142115-
Putnam GA-Baldwin GA-Hancock GA-Greene GA-
426 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM...
NORTHEASTERN BALDWIN...WESTERN HANCOCK AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 426 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Carey to near Milledgeville...and moving east at
15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Milledgeville, Greensboro, White Plains, Siloam, Reynolds Plantation,
Midway-Hardwick, Liberty, Veazey, Devereux, Beulah, Underwood, Oconee
Springs Park, Rockville, Hardwick and Shoulderbone.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3308 8301 3308 8305 3306 8305 3306 8323
      3353 8328 3353 8327 3354 8327 3358 8302
      3309 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 281DEG 12KT 3352 8324 3310 8319

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
444 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

GAZ041-042-052-142115-
Haralson GA-Carroll GA-Heard GA-
444 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HARALSON...WESTERN
CARROLL AND NORTHWESTERN HEARD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Tallapoosa to near Tennant...and moving northeast at
20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Carrollton, Buchanan, Bremen, Tallapoosa, Bowdon, Mount Zion, Waco,
Ephesus, Roopville, Bowdon Junction, Tyus, Roosterville, Frolona,
Draketown, John Tanner State Park and Blackjack Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3377 8532 3384 8504 3324 8516 3325 8526
      3367 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 244DEG 19KT 3374 8530 3330 8542

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
456 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

GAZ012-020-142130-
Gordon GA-Bartow GA-
456 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GORDON AND NORTHERN
BARTOW COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 456 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Adairsville, or 10
miles south of Calhoun...moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Calhoun, Adairsville, Plainville, Fairmount, Ranger, Sonoraville,
Pine Log, Redbud, Folsom and Funkhouser.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3441 8465 3436 8465 3435 8464 3435 8465
      3432 8466 3424 8498 3432 8502 3435 8502
      3435 8501 3439 8501 3439 8502 3440 8503
      3440 8506 3441 8507 3460 8474
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 242DEG 28KT 3436 8495

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
507 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

GAZ051-062-142130-
Taliaferro GA-Warren GA-
507 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TALIAFERRO AND
NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 507 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Robinson, or near
Crawfordville...moving northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Crawfordville, Sharon, Barnett, Robinson, Alexander Stephens Park and
Sandy Cross.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3347 8276 3346 8300 3348 8300 3349 8298
      3352 8299 3357 8301 3364 8289 3362 8288
      3364 8288 3364 8285 3365 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 245DEG 12KT 3354 8296

WIND...40MPH