Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

A moist and unstable air mass persists over the forecast area this
afternoon. Convection so far is developing over central GA along and
south of a weak boundary. Expect heavy rain to be the main risk
again although an isolated severe is possible. For overnight and
early Monday...a short wave moving into the mid MS Valley could
support thunderstorms into north GA if it holds together. Models
showing a couple of waves moving through the TN Valley and north GA
area tomorrow so have kept basically likely pops for the afternoon
across much of the area. Pops diminishing to chance for tomorrow
night...but this would also depend on how the convection develops.
Have generally stayed with persistence temperatures.

41

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

Only slight cosmetic adjustments made to some of the pop/wx
periods and an overall refresh of guidance blend for other weather
elements with minor tweaks as main forecast looks on track. Most
of the period should be in the more convectively active pattern
with higher PWATs and cooler 500mb temps. Previous discussion
follows...

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

With the northern stream lofted well north of the area, do not
expect much change in the tropical airmass in place through the long
term. Under zonal flow, anticipate weak impulses to cross the
region, most notably Tuesday. This will help with better coverage
of showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening hours. As
the mid level ridge builds into the region through the remainder
of the week, expect typical diurnal convection. Looking closer to
the surface, troughing will develop across central GA with a
strengthening Bermuda High by mid/late week. This will yield
moist southerly flow helping to produce better precipitation
coverage across the southern tier. Also we anticipate a bit more
activity corresponding to the orographic effects in the higher
terrain. The ridge aloft will begin to erode ahead of a deepening
trough from the Great Lakes region early Saturday with a bit more
precipitation activity during the afternoon. However, this is a
week out and likely to change. Given the aforementioned pattern,
no real organized systems are forecasted at this time. Strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through the period
(especially Tuesday) with the main threats being heavy rain, gusty
winds and frequent lightning.

Temperatures will be around normal through the period, perhaps
increasing a bit above normal by the latter half of the work-week
ahead of a weak front.

26

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

TSRA development was even further south tonight than last night.
Most recent storms have been near CSG and will need to add a short
term TEMPO for them. Otherwise, some low clouds to move into AHN
overnight bu remain east of the ATL sites. Another Prob30 in the
offing for Monday which may need to be converted to a TEMPO with
shortwave activity.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
High on all elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  88  70  88 /  30  60  40  50
Atlanta         73  87  71  86 /  30  60  40  50
Blairsville     67  83  67  83 /  30  60  50  50
Cartersville    73  88  72  87 /  20  60  40  40
Columbus        76  92  75  90 /  30  60  40  60
Gainesville     72  86  72  86 /  30  60  40  50
Macon           75  91  74  91 /  30  50  40  60
Rome            73  88  72  88 /  20  70  40  40
Peachtree City  72  90  73  88 /  30  60  40  60
Vidalia         76  91  75  91 /  40  50  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...Deese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1150 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-141600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1150 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. A few strong
storms are possible. The primary hazards will be gusty winds,
frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall. With soils at or
approaching saturation across much of north and central Georgia,
localized flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There will be scattered to numerous thunderstorms each day,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms
could be strong with the main hazards being gusty winds, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
654 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017

GAZ106-132330-
Crisp GA-
654 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRISP COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 654 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Raines, or near
Cordele...moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cordele, Arabi, East Crisp, Fort Early, Georgia Veterans Memorial St
Pk, Raines and Wenona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3181 8383 3183 8384 3182 8385 3184 8386
      3185 8393 3188 8393 3193 8392 3197 8394
      3203 8381 3203 8370 3183 8361 3180 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 250DEG 9KT 3190 8386

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
808 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017

GAZ080-092-140030-
Schley GA-Taylor GA-
808 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SCHLEY AND
SOUTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 807 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Charing, or 10 miles
north of Ellaville...moving northeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rupert, Murrays Crossroads and Charing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3231 8439 3243 8439 3245 8441 3247 8441
      3259 8429 3245 8416 3240 8420 3240 8425
      3239 8425 3230 8426 3226 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 231DEG 8KT 3239 8435

WIND...50MPH