Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
736 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

A weak stationary frontal boundary remains situated across central
GA this morning. This boundary will continue to provide focus for
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the short term
period.

Coverage of storms today is expected to be a bit more widespread
than the previous two days. An upper disturbance will provide a bit
more support for the development of storms. The shortwave is
expected to be closest to the northern tier of the state, while the
best moisture/surface instability will be along and south of the old
frontal boundary. Will go ahead and have likely pops for the mid to
late afternoon, when the coverage of storms should be highest. With
decent surface instability and moderately steep lapse rates, strong
storms will be possible. An isolated severe storm is not out of the
question. One thing is certain, the storms will be heavy rainers.
PWATS remain around 2" and BL winds are expected to be blo 20kt, so
storms will be slow movers.

Do expect activity to decrease overnight with the loss of heating,
but with the moist airmass continuing, will leave slight pops in
overnight for stray showers. A little less coverage is expected on
Tuesday, but will have to watch for any pieces of shortwave energy
that come through in the flow and interact with the old boundary.
The models are trying to build high pressure in aloft later in the
day, so that could potentially limit convective coverage also.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

We will go through most of the long term under a moist and
unstable airmass as a mid-level ridge of high pressure continues
to build into the area through mid-week. As we approach the
weekend, a digging trough will emerge from the Great Lakes region
eventually moving east, undercutting the existing ridge. A
trailing front associated with this low will move south into the
area Friday night into early Saturday, eventually stalling across
central/southern GA through the remainder of the weekend.

Given this synoptic pattern, we can expect to have scattered to
numerous showers/thunderstorms through much of the work-week.
There may be a bit less coverage Saturday behind the front,
especially across the north. Looking a bit further at the upper
level support, one could argue that we should see a bit more
coverage of precipitation across the northern tier on Friday and
then across central GA Saturday ahead/along the front. While this
is toward the end of the forecast period, models have been fairly
consistent in bringing a front across the region near the
beginning of the weekend. Confidence in the exact timing and
intensity of the frontal passage and associated precipitation
activity is low.

Temperatures will be around normal, perhaps a bit above normal
Thursday and Friday with southerly flow ahead of the incoming
front.

26

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
No major changes needed for the TAF this cycle. Better chances
for convection this afternoon and have changed the prob to a tempo
for the late afternoon. Winds should remain on the west side.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High
confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          89  71  89  71 /  60  40  40  30
Atlanta         89  72  88  72 /  60  40  40  30
Blairsville     83  67  85  66 /  60  40  40  30
Cartersville    90  72  88  72 /  60  40  40  30
Columbus        93  76  92  76 /  60  40  60  30
Gainesville     88  72  88  72 /  60  40  40  30
Macon           93  74  93  74 /  60  40  60  30
Rome            89  72  89  72 /  60  40  40  30
Peachtree City  91  73  90  72 /  60  40  40  30
Vidalia         91  75  93  75 /  60  40  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
352 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-150800-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
352 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. A few strong
to severe storms are possible. The primary hazards will be gusty
winds, frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall. With soils at
or approaching saturation across much of north and central
Georgia, localized flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There will be scattered to numerous thunderstorms each day,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms
could be strong with the main hazards being gusty winds, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
731 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

GAZ025-027-035>039-047-049>051-060>062-075-141400-
Jackson-Madison-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-Walton-
Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Glascock-
731 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

...Patchy Dense Fog Across East Central Georgia This Morning...

Patchy dense fog has developed across portions of east central
Georgia this morning, mainly across areas that received heavy
rainfall last evening. Visibilities less than half a mile are
possible this morning, mainly through 10 AM.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1238 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

GAZ025-035-141715-
Jackson GA-Barrow GA-
1238 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN JACKSON AND BARROW
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

At 1238 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over County Line, or near
Winder. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
           in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Winder and County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3400 8375 3405 8379 3411 8370 3407 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 205DEG 1KT 3405 8375

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
102 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

GAZ038-141730-
Oglethorpe GA-
102 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN OGLETHORPE COUNTY UNTIL
130 PM EDT...

At 102 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Woodville, or 11 miles
northeast of Greensboro...moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. If you can
           hear thunder...you are close enough to be struck by
           lightning. Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding
           especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Philomath.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.  Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3372 8297 3369 8302 3371 8305 3370 8311
      3372 8312 3381 8302 3374 8295 3373 8295
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 249DEG 8KT 3371 8306