Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 415 CDT THU JUN 29 2017

Last night's activity is still making its way through the
northeastern part of the forecast area. These training storms
dropped an excessive amount of water across northern MO. Areas from
Burlington Junction, MO to Bethany, MO have received anywhere from 9-
11 inches of rain with surrounding areas in the 6-9 inch range. As a
result, flooding is an issue, so an Areal Flood warning is in
effect across this area until about 3:30 PM this afternoon. The
activity in the northeastern part of the forecast area should
continue to weaken and move southeast, exiting the area within the
next few hours. To our west, another cluster of storms has taken
shape. This is in response to another upper level shortwave moving
through in conjunction with the low level jet. This activity has
already begin moving into northeastern KS and northwestern MO and
is expected to move east through about dawn and then dissipate.
Another MCS is projected to move through northern KS and northern
MO later this morning as another shortwave, currently over
western KS, moves through. This will be in conjunction with a
developing surface low in southeastern KS and its associated warm
front. The storm system should move along the warm front, making
it near the KS/MO border around 9 AM. It should continue moving
east, north of the MO River, through late morning. Don't
anticipate much in the way of severe weather, but can't rule out
the potential for isolated hail and damaging winds. The bigger
concern will be the additional rainfall in an area that is already
experiencing flash and river flooding.

This afternoon, it looks like we may have similar set up to
yesterday afternoon/evening. It will, however, be contingent on
this morning's systems. A boundary with warm front characteristics
seems to be the main focus for severe storm development this
afternoon and is likely to set up somewhere across northeastern KS
and northern MO, likely a little further south than yesterday's
activity. At the same time another shortwave is projected to move
overhead. All of the ingredients for severe weather will be
available again today. SB CAPE will range from 2000-4000 J/kg, 0-6
km shear around 40 kts, with dewpoints in the low 70s again.
General model consensus depicts storms starting to develop this
afternoon (roughly 1-3 pm time frame) in northwest MO/northeast KS
and then moving southeast, potentially reaching the northern side
of the KC metro in the 4-6 PM time frame. All hazards, hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible, especially in
the SPC Enhanced Risk area. Further into the evening, as storms
move southeast, they will eventually form a line as the main upper
trough and surface cold front moves in, and low level jet ramps
up again. Widespread flash flooding and river flooding may be the
biggest concern, not only in northern MO, but also the KC Metro
and areas closer to the MO River because these storms will likely
not be moving very fast and PWAT values will be approaching 2
inches. Therefore, with what has already fallen and what is
projected to fall, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued until 7 AM
Friday morning, for most of our counties north of the MO River and
the KC Metro.

The storms and cold front should exit the area by Friday night and
a surface high will work its way south over the area. This will
leave Saturday cooler and dry. Friday's cold front, which will
stall near the MO/AR border, will retreat north as a warm front
Sunday, returning on and off storm chances starting Sunday evening
through Wednesday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

The main issue for aviation during this period will be when and
where thunderstorms reform this afternoon into this evening.
Currently the forecast is looking for storms to reform up around
the KC area. These storms may continue to form a long a frontal
boundary keeping VCTS in the TAFs for 6-8 hours with the best
chance for on station being 00-04Z. Heavy rains with these storms
could take sites down to MVFR or IFR at times but these drops
should be temporary. After the storms move to the south around
5-7z there will be a chance of MVFR ceilings pushing through right
around sunrise. There also could be temporary IFR ceilings with
these lower ceilings so this was added as a TEMPO group around
that time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ025-102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for MOZ001>006-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037.

&&

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Barham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
426 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-300930-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
426 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Thunderstorms will be possible this morning however, these storms
 are not expected to be severe.

 Several rounds of storms will be possible today. Conditions this
 afternoon and evening will be favorable for severe storms with large
 hail...damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible.

 With several rounds of storms possible today falling across already
 saturated soil there is also a flash flood threat. An additional 2
 to 4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are possible. There
 will also be flooding along area rivers, creeks and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 Thunderstorms will continue into Friday morning however the severe
 threat will have diminished by then. However, there may be area and
 river flooding ongoing.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1055 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLOOD            5 ENE JAMESPORT         40.02N 93.72W
06/29/2017                   GRUNDY             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAYS W AND WW CLOSED AT HICKORY CREEK.

&&

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1134 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ROTHVILLE               39.65N 93.06W
06/29/2017                   CHARITON           MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY E CLOSED NEAR WEST YELLOW CREEK.

&&

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLOOD            4 W CONCEPTION          40.24N 94.75W
06/29/2017                   NODAWAY            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER VV HIGHWAY.

&&

ADOLPHSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
104 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

KSZ105-MOZ037-043-291845-
Johnson KS-Cass MO-Jackson MO-
104 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSON...NORTHERN CASS AND
JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 103 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Independence to near Shawnee.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Overland Park, Olathe, Independence, Lee's Summit,
Shawnee, Blue Springs, Lenexa, Leawood, Raytown, Grandview, Belton,
Prairie Village, Raymore, Gardner, Grain Valley, Merriam, Mission,
Pleasant Hill and De Soto.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 8 and 21.
 Interstate 35 in Kansas between mile markers 210 and 229.
 Interstate 470 between mile markers 0 and 16.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 0 and 6, and between mile
markers 62 and 83.

LAT...LON 3909 9435 3894 9411 3879 9413 3872 9461
      3874 9461 3874 9483 3893 9506 3897 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 281DEG 36KT 3904 9441 3896 9482

Laflin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
137 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

MOZ037-291915-
Jackson MO-
137 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 215
PM CDT...

At 136 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Raytown, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Independence, Lee's Summit, Blue Springs, Raytown,
Grandview, Grain Valley, Oak Grove, Lake Lotawana, Lone Jack, Lake
Tapawingo, Unity Village and Tarsney Lakes.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 9 and 29.
 Interstate 470 between mile markers 0 and 16.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 63 and 75.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3891 9461 3904 9460 3912 9411 3888 9411
      3885 9412
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 267DEG 41KT 3897 9448

Laflin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
207 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

MOZ038-044-291930-
Johnson MO-Lafayette MO-
207 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE AND NORTH
CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 207 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oak Grove, moving east at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oak Grove, Odessa, Higginsville, Mayview, Lake Lafayette, Bates City
and Aullville.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 30 and
55.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 9411 3900 9411 3903 9410 3910 9370
      3899 9362 3889 9369
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 269DEG 44KT 3899 9408

Leighton