Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1054 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

Deepening surface trough over the western High Plains has made for a
tight surface pressure gradient over the Central Plains and the Mid-
Lower Missouri River Valley. Gusty southerly winds have responded
through the day to the tightening gradient and have persisted in the
20 to 30 mph range, with gusts approaching 40 mph. This has caused a
nice moistening of the lower atmosphere over northern Missouri and
southern Iowa, and primed the area for robust convective development
later this evening, likely in the next hour or two. Visible
satellite imagery indicates some agitated and deepening cumulus in
the vicinity of a subtle boundary characterized by surface wind
shift of around 20-30 degrees in southern Iowa and northern
Missouri. Hi-res models indicate scattered to numerous thunderstorms
oriented SW to NE through northern Missouri and southern/central
Iowa later this afternoon and this evening. Despite surface winds
being a bit veered (south/southwest) good veering-with-height
through 500 mb where flow is out of the west/northwest around 50 kts
is creating a wind profile conducive to high shear. The
aforementioned warm/moist surface, beneath fairly steep low/mid
level lapse rates is yielding ML CAPE values in the 3000 to 3500
J/kg range. Deep layer shear values approaching 40 kts across the
area will combine with the high instability to bring an environment
conducive to supercellular development. Initial development should
be semi-discrete, but due to storm coverage, interference could
diminish tornado concerns and on a larger scale perhaps the overall
organization of any storm that forms. Expect upgrowth to a MCS,
which will bring more of a wind threat and heavy rain threat to
northern Missouri. In the meantime, with semi-discrete convection
all hazards would be possible with large hail and strong winds being
the primary concerns. One thing to consider with this event would be
the potential for some mesovortex tornadoes after sunset across the
area. Significant Tornado Parameter will max out in the 3 to 5
range, and that's being driven by 0-1 SRH values remaining in the
200 to 300 m2/s2 range after dark. Even with upscale growth there
will still be ample low level shear to produce an embedded tornado
or two within the MCS activity.

By Friday morning the bulk of the activity will be off to the east,
but another round of thunderstorms will be possible later in the
morning hours as a shortwave trough glides through the area. These
morning showers should be subsevere, but an isolated severe
hailstone could form with this activity. That will then set the
stage for another round of severe thunderstorms on Friday, generally
along a boundary which will set up in northeast Kansas and southeast
Nebraska. Once again, given good instability and shear parameters on
Thursday afternoon severe storms should form in the afternoon with
all hazards possible once again, mainly large hail and damaging
winds. These storms should be a little further south than the round
on Wednesday, which will put the KC Metro area in play for some of
the stronger storms. The best chance for widespread severe storms
will be late in the evening and overnight Thursday once the cold
front pushes through the area. Expect this activity to be more of a
wind and hydro threat to the KC Metro and areas of Missouri south of
the Missouri River through early Friday morning.

The early part of the weekend should be fairly calm and cooler, or
at least drier as the area comes under the influence of the surface
ridge that noses in Friday night. Through the rest of the weekend
and into early next week there will be off-and-on chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the area as the mid level flow
remains zonal and active and the lower levels reload with warm and
moist air. By mid week large scale ridging will dominate the
upstream region, which will cause temperatures to be on the increase
through mid week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

Storms will continue to trek north of the terminals tonight, but
will be watching for another area of storms to develop across
north central KS early this morning and push eastward toward all
TAF sites. Still uncertain if this will occur and where exactly it
will track so have stayed with VCTS during the 14z-18z timeframe,
but will refine with future amendments or issuances once storms
develop. VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of
today, until storms begin to redevelop late this afternoon or
early this evening. Winds will remain out of the south southwest
and should begin to drop off to around 12 kts shortly, but will
increase slightly during the daylight hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Laflin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
451 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
451 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Thunderstorms will be possible across northeastern Kansas and
 northern missouri this morning however, these storms are not
 expected to be severe.

 If skies can clear out late this afternoon/evening across northern
 Missouri, severe storms capable of producing large hail, damaging
 winds and even a isolated tornado will be possible.

 The main round of storms is expected to affect the area tonight into
 the overnight hours as a line of storms drops south out of Iowa into
 northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. the main threat with
 this round of storms will be for severe winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Severe storms will again be possible on Thursday across the entire
 outlook area. Strong damaging winds,large hail and even a isolated
 tornado will be possible.

 In addition, localized heavy rain will also be possible this
 afternoon through Friday. The heaviest rains are expected to fall
 over northern Missouri where 3 to 5 inches of rain will be
 possible. This may result in localized flash flooding as well as
 river and stream flooding.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1113 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

MOZ023-024-290500-
Livingston MO-Linn MO-
1113 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINN AND CENTRAL LIVINGSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1112 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chillicothe, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chillicothe, Brookfield, Meadville, Laclede, Linneus, Wheeling,
Utica, Chula, Purdin and Saint Catherine.

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for north
central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3969 9371 3996 9359 3996 9292 3983 9287
      3971 9304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0412Z 273DEG 35KT 3986 9356

Blair

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1115 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TRENTON                 40.08N 93.61W
06/28/2017                   GRUNDY             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER POLES
            DOWN ACROSS TRENTON.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE WORTH             40.42N 94.40W
06/28/2017                   WORTH              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER POLES SNAPPED. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1208 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE LA PLATA          40.02N 92.48W
06/28/2017                   MACON              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1229 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ALBANY                  40.25N 94.33W
06/29/2017                   GENTRY             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS IN ALBANY FLOODED. HWY 136
            CLOSED ON NORTH SIDE OF ALBANY DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
113 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N ALBANY              40.29N 94.33W
06/28/2017                   GENTRY             MO   PUBLIC

            HEAVY DAMAGE TO OUTBUILDINGS.

&&