Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Quad Cities, IA

015 
WWUS53 KDVN 160021
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
721 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

ILC161-IAC045-163-160100-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-170416T0100Z/
Rock Island IL-Scott IA-Clinton IA-
721 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ROCK ISLAND...NORTHERN SCOTT AND SOUTHEASTERN
CLINTON COUNTIES...

At 721 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Long Grove, or
9 miles north of Bettendorf, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Eldridge, Camanche, Walcott, Albany, Princeton, Long Grove,
Cordova, Donahue, McCausland, Low Moor, Dixon, Maysville, Rock Creek
Marina and Campground, Camp Liberty, Folletts, Park View, Princeton
Wildlife Area, Rock Creek  Park and Scott County Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4166 9028 4162 9067 4162 9080 4174 9083
      4182 9021 4180 9020 4178 9024 4175 9025
      4172 9023 4170 9024 4169 9023 4168 9023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 264DEG 28KT 4169 9054 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

420 
WWUS53 KDVN 160034
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
734 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

ILC161-IAC045-163-160100-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-170416T0100Z/
Rock Island IL-Scott IA-Clinton IA-
734 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ROCK ISLAND...NORTHEASTERN SCOTT AND SOUTHEASTERN
CLINTON COUNTIES...

At 734 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over McCausland, or
11 miles southwest of Clinton, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Camanche, Albany, Princeton, Long Grove, Cordova,
McCausland, Low Moor, Rock Creek Marina and Campground, Folletts,
Park View, Princeton Wildlife Area, Rock Creek  Park and Scott County
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4166 9028 4169 9049 4168 9061 4176 9067
      4182 9021 4180 9020 4178 9024 4175 9025
      4172 9023 4170 9024 4169 9023 4168 9023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 259DEG 29KT 4174 9039 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

198 
WWUS53 KDVN 160041
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
741 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

ILC161-160050-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-170416T0100Z/
Rock Island IL-
741 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ROCK ISLAND
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area, therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4180 9022 4177 9028 4175 9031 4173 9032
      4169 9049 4170 9054 4177 9055 4178 9055
      4182 9021 4180 9020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 259DEG 28KT 4178 9033 

$$

IAC045-163-160100-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-170416T0100Z/
Scott IA-Clinton IA-
741 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN SCOTT AND SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTIES...

At 740 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Low Moor, or
near Clinton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Camanche, McCausland, Low Moor, Rock Creek Marina and
Campground, Folletts, Rock Creek  Park and Scott County Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4180 9022 4177 9028 4175 9031 4173 9032
      4169 9049 4170 9054 4177 9055 4178 9055
      4182 9021 4180 9020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 259DEG 28KT 4178 9033 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

016 
WWUS53 KDVN 160046
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
746 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

IAC045-163-160055-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-170416T0100Z/
Scott IA-Clinton IA-
746 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SCOTT AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened. 
therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail is 
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4180 9022 4177 9028 4175 9031 4173 9032
      4169 9049 4170 9054 4177 9055 4178 9055
      4182 9021 4180 9020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 264DEG 28KT 4178 9027 

$$

ERVIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
622 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 448 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

I have increased pops to likely much earlier in the period to
account for the thunderstorms developing over the northwest 1/2 of
the CWA. These storms by elevated nature, will primarily bring a
small hail threat, and an isolated severe hail threat.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

Analysis at 2 45 PM CDT shows initial convection just starting to fire
near Missouri River Valley in Western Iowa. Pressure falls and moisture
pooling supports this to congeal and develop into a asymmetrical line
next 3-4+ hours across western Iowa and NW Missouri and move across
forecast area between 7 and 12 PM. Instabilities of 1500-2000 J/KG
with surface dewpoints upper 50s to around 60F supports severe hail
risk and bowing segments by evening with 60+ MPH winds. Upstream energy
supports a near seasonal high pressure system to migrate into region
Sunday into Monday with nice spring weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

Short term forecast confidence assessment...fair or average with main
issue locations and timing of convective elements across the region,
mainly this evening with some severe in form of hail and damaging straight
line winds.

Tonight...have likely POPS with timing from metwatch and genesis of
storms still TBD with current trend suggesting risk of strong to severe
storms passing between 7 and 12 PM. Local tools suggest hail up to
the size of ping pong balls or 1.5 inches may occur until early evening
and then lower to inch or less as bowing segments of a line take over
by mid evening. Local techniques also support instability and momentum
transfer with bowing segments to support areas of 50 to 60 MPH with
isolated 70 MPH possibly until late evening. Rainfall totals most locations
should tend to be mostly below a half inch with areas of .75 to 1+
inches where strongest cells develop with low chance of training of
storms suggested. Clearing late with cooler air support mins near 50F
far NW with near 60F far SE sections.

Sunday...High pressure to bring fair skies and nice April weather with
highs upper 60s to lower 70s and low humidity. Northwest winds of 10
to 15+ MPH to result in near ideal conditions for outside activities.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

An active weather regime will once again set up over the area from
mid to late week.  A couple of shortwaves in nearly zonal flow will
move across the region Monday night through Thursday.  The first
impulse will drive a cold front through the region Tuesday and
Tuesday night.  This system will have to be watched for severe
potential with the boundary moving through the DVN CWA during the
afternoon and evening.  Moisture return ahead of the front may be
questionable with surface ridge in place over the south
central/southeast u.s.

The cold front will stall just to the south of Iowa/nrn IL
Wednesday, then another s/w will moving out of the Rockies will
track east through the plains.  This feature will send  a surface
wave along the boundary through Ia Wednesday night spreading more
showers and storms through the region.

Models suggest a brief break in the action late Thursday then bring
more showers and isolated storms into the region a ahead of a major
trof through Friday.  Most model solutions are keeping the mid/upper
Mississippi Valley on the cool side of this system which should
limit thunderstorm coverage.

temperatures through most of the period will be typical for mid
April.  Although if the late week system tracks to the south,
clouds/rain and easterly surface flow will keep temperatures below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

A cold front will bring widespread thunderstorms to eastern Iowa
and northwest Illinois through around midnight, followed by VFR
conditions behind the front. Storms will bring temporary IFR
visibility, small hail, and gusty winds. A line of storms along
the front may bring near 50KT winds as it moves through mid
evening.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Ervin
SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...ERVIN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1211 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-161715-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
1211 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight with the
most likely time period from 4 PM to midnight.

The main threats are large hail up to the size of 1.5 inches or
the size of ping pong balls initially, then hail and strong winds
up to 60 to 70 MPH this evening. An isolated, brief tornado is
possible, but atmospheric conditions are marginal for this to
occur.

The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe storms for
the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Thunderstorms are expected at times from Tuesday into Thursday.
However, it is too early to determine the potential for severe
weather and heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected late this afternoon and evening.
Any reports of hail and damaging winds would be appreciated.

Nichols

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HAIL             6 W TIPTON              41.77N 91.25W
04/15/2017  M0.25 INCH       CEDAR              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PETERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
617 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     HAIL             2 SSE HILLS             41.55N 91.53W
04/15/2017  M0.50 INCH       JOHNSON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PETERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
633 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             DEWITT                  41.82N 90.55W
04/15/2017  M0.88 INCH       CLINTON            IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

PETERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             DEWITT                  41.82N 90.55W
04/15/2017  M1.00 INCH       CLINTON            IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

PETERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HAIL             CALAMUS                 41.83N 90.76W
04/15/2017  M1.00 INCH       CLINTON            IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RELAYED FROM KWQC, TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

PETERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
654 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             S DEWITT                41.82N 90.55W
04/15/2017  M1.50 INCH       CLINTON            IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FROM AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE, TIME ESTIMATED ON RADAR

&&

PETERS