Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
511 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will stall over the area tonight,
bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms which
may linger through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms in the forecast area
ahead of the cold front and its associated pre-frontal trough.
The high-resolution models display the greatest thunderstorm
coverage late this afternoon and evening as strong short wave
trough approaches from Tennessee. Models indicate relatively
strong upper level divergence and associated lift thru 06z.
Coverage may diminish late because of nocturnal cooling and
previous convection, but a threat will linger overnight
associated with convergence ahead of the cold front and upper
troughing moving into the region. A limiting factor for severe
thunderstorms is relatively weak deep-layer shear. However,
moderate to strong instability and heavy precipitation loading
supports possible damaging wind with the thunderstorms. So pulse
storms expected with the possibility of some organization this
evening. Nam qpf appears overdone and likely because of
convective feedback. But with precipitable water around 2 inches
expect heavy rain potential with some localized flooding
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The main front will stall out across the forecast area Sunday,
and this will remain the focusing mechanism for additional
showers and thunderstorms through Sunday night. Several short
wave troughs rotating through amplified eastern CONUS upper
level trough. Nam appears to dry out upper levels quicker late
Sunday than other models. With front in the area prefer higher
pops thru Sunday night. Shear remains weak, with moderate
instability Sunday, and cannot rule out a few strong or even
severe thunderstorms. Temperatures will begin to cool off
slightly as the front moves into the area, with readings near
90. Overnight lows each night in the middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Although the frontal boundary in the area will continue to
weaken Monday, there should still be enough low-level moisture
and instability across the area to aid in the development of
scattered afternoon and evening convection. Models showing the
potential for a weak cut-off upper low developing over the area
Tuesday through Wednesday as the cwa gets squeezed between the
strong ridge across the central US and another ridge in the
western Atlantic. Ridge retrogrades late in the period. Still
expecting the convection to become more diurnal and more
scattered to isolated later in the week. Temperatures near
normal early in the period but warming trend late week to above
normal again.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread convection crossing the area into tonight...with fog
and stratus during the early morning and sunrise hours.

Thunderstorms have developed across the area with several
thunderstorms around the terminals. Frontal boundary approaching
from the Upstate with another line of thunderstorms will move
into the area this evening. Expect the thunderstorms to diminish
around 03z...possibly later as remaining outflow boundaries
intersect and generate new cells. Main concern with
thunderstorms is potential for strong wind gusts. With rain
expected will see stratus and fog develop through the early
morning and sunrise hours with with IFR cigs and vsbys at all
terminals. Conditions will return to VFR from 14z through the
end of the period with cumulus and another round of convection
again developing near the end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High confidence in showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions through Monday as a
front stalls over the area. Low confidence in showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. High potential for late
night/early morning stratus and fog each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1157 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-161600-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
1157 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight could possibly contain
damaging wind. The storms may also contain heavy rain with localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A few thunderstorms with damaging wind will be possible Sunday into
Monday along a stalled front. The storms may also contain heavy rain
with localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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