Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Columbia, SC

072 
WWUS52 KCAE 151909
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
309 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

SCC009-075-151930-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-170715T1930Z/
Bamberg SC-Orangeburg SC-
309 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR BAMBERG AND SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGEBURG COUNTIES...

At 306 PM EDT, thunderstorms extended from just east of Branchville
in eastern Orangeburg County southwest into the area between Bamberg
and Ehrhardt. Movement was near near 15 mph. Some of the 
thunderstorms likely contained wind gusts near 60 mph especially in 
the area just southeast of Bamberg. Very heavy rain will lead to 
ponding of water in poor drainage areas. Do not attempt to drive on 
flooded roads.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Branchville, Ehrhardt, Rowesville and Olar. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 8122 3341 8078 3327 8063 3312 8089
      3309 8088 3308 8089 3307 8092 3310 8094
      3303 8107
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 286DEG 16KT 3320 8079 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
204 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will stall over the area tonight,
bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms which
may linger through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms in the forecast area ahead
of the cold front and its associated pre-frontal trough. The
high-resolution models display the greatest thunderstorm
coverage late this afternoon and evening as strong short wave
trough approaches from Tennessee. Models indicate relatively
strong upper level divergence and associated lift thru 06z. Coverage
may diminish late because of nocturnal cooling and previous
convection, but a threat will linger overnight associated with
convergence ahead of the cold front and upper troughing moving
into the region. A limiting factor for severe thunderstorms is
relatively weak deep-layer shear. However, moderate to strong
instability and heavy precipitation loading supports possible
damaging wind with the thunderstorms. So pulse storms expected
with the possibility of some organization this evening. Nam qpf
appears overdone and likely because of convective feedback. But
with precipitable water around 2 inches expect heavy rain
potential with some localized flooding possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The main front will stall out across the forecast area Sunday,
and this will remain the focusing mechanism for additional
showers and thunderstorms through Sunday night. Several short
wave troughs rotating through amplified eastern CONUS upper
level trough. Nam appears to dry out upper levels quicker late
Sunday than other models. With front in the area prefer higher
pops thru Sunday night. Shear remains weak, with moderate
instability Sunday, and cannot rule out a few strong or even
severe thunderstorms. Temperatures will begin to cool off
slightly as the front moves into the area, with readings near
90. Overnight lows each night in the middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Although the frontal boundary in the area will continue to
weaken Monday, there should still be enough low-level moisture
and instability across the area to aid in the development of
scattered afternoon and evening convection. Models showing the
potential for a weak cut-off upper low developing over the area
Tuesday through Wednesday as the cwa gets squeezed between the
strong ridge across the central US and another ridge in the
western Atlantic. Ridge retrogrades late in the period. Still
expecting the convection to become more diurnal and more
scattered to isolated later in the week. Temperatures near
normal early in the period but warming trend late week to above
normal again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Convection expected into tonight...with fog and stratus during
the early morning and sunrise hours.

Active period ahead as convection has begun developing around
AGs/DNL/OGB with a front moving into the Upstate generating a
line of convection moving toward the terminals. Expect
thunderstorms across the area through 03z...possibly later as
outflow boundaries intersect and generate new cells. Main
concern with thunderstorms is potential for strong wind gusts.
With rain expected will see stratus and fog develop through the
early morning and sunrise hours with with IFR cigs and vsbys at
all terminals. Conditions will return to VFR from 14z through
the end of the period with cumulus and another round of
convection again developing near the end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High confidence in showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions through Monday as a
front stalls over the area. Low confidence in showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. High potential for late
night/early morning stratus and fog each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1157 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-161600-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
1157 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight could possibly contain
damaging wind. The storms may also contain heavy rain with localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A few thunderstorms with damaging wind will be possible Sunday into
Monday along a stalled front. The storms may also contain heavy rain
with localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
214 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

SCZ041-151845-
Bamberg-
214 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BAMBERG COUNTY...

At 213 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Bamberg, moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Bamberg
County between Bamberg and Branchville.

LAT...LON 3316 8101 3322 8102 3328 8092 3314 8089
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 241DEG 5KT 3319 8100

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
225 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

SCZ036-041-151900-
Orangeburg-Bamberg-
225 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL BAMBERG AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ORANGEBURG COUNTIES...

At 224 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near the Orangeburg
and Bamberg county line west of Branchville, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Branchville and Rowesville.

LAT...LON 3316 8101 3335 8097 3339 8069 3319 8077
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 266DEG 7KT 3329 8092