Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
204 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will stall over the area tonight,
bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms which
may linger through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms in the forecast area ahead
of the cold front and its associated pre-frontal trough. The
high-resolution models display the greatest thunderstorm
coverage late this afternoon and evening as strong short wave
trough approaches from Tennessee. Models indicate relatively
strong upper level divergence and associated lift thru 06z. Coverage
may diminish late because of nocturnal cooling and previous
convection, but a threat will linger overnight associated with
convergence ahead of the cold front and upper troughing moving
into the region. A limiting factor for severe thunderstorms is
relatively weak deep-layer shear. However, moderate to strong
instability and heavy precipitation loading supports possible
damaging wind with the thunderstorms. So pulse storms expected
with the possibility of some organization this evening. Nam qpf
appears overdone and likely because of convective feedback. But
with precipitable water around 2 inches expect heavy rain
potential with some localized flooding possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The main front will stall out across the forecast area Sunday,
and this will remain the focusing mechanism for additional
showers and thunderstorms through Sunday night. Several short
wave troughs rotating through amplified eastern CONUS upper
level trough. Nam appears to dry out upper levels quicker late
Sunday than other models. With front in the area prefer higher
pops thru Sunday night. Shear remains weak, with moderate
instability Sunday, and cannot rule out a few strong or even
severe thunderstorms. Temperatures will begin to cool off
slightly as the front moves into the area, with readings near
90. Overnight lows each night in the middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Although the frontal boundary in the area will continue to
weaken Monday, there should still be enough low-level moisture
and instability across the area to aid in the development of
scattered afternoon and evening convection. Models showing the
potential for a weak cut-off upper low developing over the area
Tuesday through Wednesday as the cwa gets squeezed between the
strong ridge across the central US and another ridge in the
western Atlantic. Ridge retrogrades late in the period. Still
expecting the convection to become more diurnal and more
scattered to isolated later in the week. Temperatures near
normal early in the period but warming trend late week to above
normal again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Convection expected into tonight...with fog and stratus during
the early morning and sunrise hours.

Active period ahead as convection has begun developing around
AGs/DNL/OGB with a front moving into the Upstate generating a
line of convection moving toward the terminals. Expect
thunderstorms across the area through 03z...possibly later as
outflow boundaries intersect and generate new cells. Main
concern with thunderstorms is potential for strong wind gusts.
With rain expected will see stratus and fog develop through the
early morning and sunrise hours with with IFR cigs and vsbys at
all terminals. Conditions will return to VFR from 14z through
the end of the period with cumulus and another round of
convection again developing near the end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High confidence in showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions through Monday as a
front stalls over the area. Low confidence in showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. High potential for late
night/early morning stratus and fog each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1157 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-161600-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
1157 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight could possibly contain
damaging wind. The storms may also contain heavy rain with localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A few thunderstorms with damaging wind will be possible Sunday into
Monday along a stalled front. The storms may also contain heavy rain
with localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
335 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NNE EHRHARDT          33.20N 80.96W
07/15/2017                   BAMBERG            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON OAK GROVE ROAD.

&&

DA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
357 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

SCZ015-016-022-152030-
Lancaster-Chesterfield-Kershaw-
357 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
CHESTERFIELD AND NORTHERN KERSHAW COUNTIES...

At 354 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were in northern
Kershaw County moving east near 15 mph. There storms
will affect the area extending from Westville to
McBee.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Heavy rain will lead to ponding of water in poor-
drainage area. Do not drive on flooded roads.

Locations impacted include...
Mcbee and Bethune.

LAT...LON 3437 8075 3448 8081 3458 8055 3453 8001
      3432 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 283DEG 11KT 3447 8051

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
413 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW VANCE              33.46N 80.44W
07/15/2017                   ORANGEBURG         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN 9843 OLD NUMBER SIX HIGHWAY.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
417 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE VANCE              33.45N 80.40W
07/15/2017  E60 MPH          ORANGEBURG         SC   PUBLIC

            MILL CREEK MARINA REPORTED ESTMD WIND GUSTS
            OF 50-60 MPH.

&&

DA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
421 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

SCZ025-030-152045-
Aiken-Edgefield-
421 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL EDGEFIELD AND WEST
CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTIES...

At 419 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was in the Belvedere area. The
storm was moving east near 20 mph and toward the Graniteville area.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
North Augusta, Belvedere, Clearwater, Gloverville and Burnettown.

LAT...LON 3350 8198 3354 8201 3368 8180 3340 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 273DEG 3KT 3355 8196

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
437 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     HAIL             VANCE                   33.43N 80.42W
07/15/2017  E0.75 INCH       ORANGEBURG         SC   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME-SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN VANCE.
            REPORT RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

DA