Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Columbia, SC

624 
WWUS52 KCAE 152003
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
403 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

SCC027-075-152015-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-170715T2015Z/
Clarendon SC-Orangeburg SC-
403 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CLARENDON AND EAST CENTRAL ORANGEBURG COUNTIES...

At 400 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was in the Lake Marion Area.
Movement was east near 20 mph. 

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Lake Marion and Eutawville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3350 8010 3350 8012 3348 8015 3346 8013
      3345 8015 3346 8016 3345 8017 3345 8020
      3344 8020 3345 8022 3330 8025 3327 8030
      3328 8034 3327 8036 3334 8046 3354 8037
      3353 8009
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 282DEG 26KT 3342 8022 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
204 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will stall over the area tonight,
bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms which
may linger through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms in the forecast area ahead
of the cold front and its associated pre-frontal trough. The
high-resolution models display the greatest thunderstorm
coverage late this afternoon and evening as strong short wave
trough approaches from Tennessee. Models indicate relatively
strong upper level divergence and associated lift thru 06z. Coverage
may diminish late because of nocturnal cooling and previous
convection, but a threat will linger overnight associated with
convergence ahead of the cold front and upper troughing moving
into the region. A limiting factor for severe thunderstorms is
relatively weak deep-layer shear. However, moderate to strong
instability and heavy precipitation loading supports possible
damaging wind with the thunderstorms. So pulse storms expected
with the possibility of some organization this evening. Nam qpf
appears overdone and likely because of convective feedback. But
with precipitable water around 2 inches expect heavy rain
potential with some localized flooding possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The main front will stall out across the forecast area Sunday,
and this will remain the focusing mechanism for additional
showers and thunderstorms through Sunday night. Several short
wave troughs rotating through amplified eastern CONUS upper
level trough. Nam appears to dry out upper levels quicker late
Sunday than other models. With front in the area prefer higher
pops thru Sunday night. Shear remains weak, with moderate
instability Sunday, and cannot rule out a few strong or even
severe thunderstorms. Temperatures will begin to cool off
slightly as the front moves into the area, with readings near
90. Overnight lows each night in the middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Although the frontal boundary in the area will continue to
weaken Monday, there should still be enough low-level moisture
and instability across the area to aid in the development of
scattered afternoon and evening convection. Models showing the
potential for a weak cut-off upper low developing over the area
Tuesday through Wednesday as the cwa gets squeezed between the
strong ridge across the central US and another ridge in the
western Atlantic. Ridge retrogrades late in the period. Still
expecting the convection to become more diurnal and more
scattered to isolated later in the week. Temperatures near
normal early in the period but warming trend late week to above
normal again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Convection expected into tonight...with fog and stratus during
the early morning and sunrise hours.

Active period ahead as convection has begun developing around
AGs/DNL/OGB with a front moving into the Upstate generating a
line of convection moving toward the terminals. Expect
thunderstorms across the area through 03z...possibly later as
outflow boundaries intersect and generate new cells. Main
concern with thunderstorms is potential for strong wind gusts.
With rain expected will see stratus and fog develop through the
early morning and sunrise hours with with IFR cigs and vsbys at
all terminals. Conditions will return to VFR from 14z through
the end of the period with cumulus and another round of
convection again developing near the end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High confidence in showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions through Monday as a
front stalls over the area. Low confidence in showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. High potential for late
night/early morning stratus and fog each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1157 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-161600-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
1157 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight could possibly contain
damaging wind. The storms may also contain heavy rain with localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A few thunderstorms with damaging wind will be possible Sunday into
Monday along a stalled front. The storms may also contain heavy rain
with localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
214 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

SCZ041-151845-
Bamberg-
214 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BAMBERG COUNTY...

At 213 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Bamberg, moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Bamberg
County between Bamberg and Branchville.

LAT...LON 3316 8101 3322 8102 3328 8092 3314 8089
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 241DEG 5KT 3319 8100

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
225 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

SCZ036-041-151900-
Orangeburg-Bamberg-
225 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL BAMBERG AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ORANGEBURG COUNTIES...

At 224 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near the Orangeburg
and Bamberg county line west of Branchville, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Branchville and Rowesville.

LAT...LON 3316 8101 3335 8097 3339 8069 3319 8077
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 266DEG 7KT 3329 8092

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
318 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

SCZ028-031-036>038-151945-
Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Sumter-Richland-
318 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...Strong thunderstorms Moving into Lake Marion Area...

At 315 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms extended from eastern
Calhoun County southward through much of eastern Orangeburg
county. Movement was east near 15 mph and toward Lake Marion.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storm.

Heavy rainfall with ponding of water will also occur.
Do not drive on flooded roads.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Marion, Holly Hill, Summerton, Bowman, Elloree, Santee,
Cameron, Eutawville and Vance.

LAT...LON 3345 8015 3346 8016 3345 8020 3344 8020
      3345 8022 3330 8025 3327 8030 3328 8035
      3326 8036 3326 8043 3329 8049 3333 8050
      3327 8062 3333 8070 3378 8072 3349 8014
      3347 8015 3346 8013
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 300DEG 13KT 3354 8046

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
335 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NNE EHRHARDT          33.20N 80.96W
07/15/2017                   BAMBERG            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON OAK GROVE ROAD.

&&

DA