Gale Warning 588, NWS Anchorage, AK

080 
FZAK61 PAFC 272350
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
250 PM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-281515-
250 PM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 979 mb low in the North Pacific moves inland near 55N 131W then
dissipates by Tue morning. A front Tue afternoon will continue
across the Gulf through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-281515-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
250 PM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-281515-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
250 PM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 20 to 28 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 21 to 25 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

600 
FZAK61 PAFC 281257
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-290215-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A strong front in the southern Gulf will move to the northern 
Gulf tonight then rapidly dissipate as it moves onshore early 
Wed. A Bering Sea low will move to 56N 160W at 964 mb Wed night 
then move to 55N 155W at 978 mb by Thu morning. 

$$

PKZ351-290215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

.TODAY...S wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-290215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

713 
FZAK61 PAFC 290040
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-291345-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A strong front in the southwestern Gulf will move to the
northeastern Gulf tonight...then moves inland and dissipates. A 964 
mb low at 54N 163W Wed afternoon moves to 53N 150W at 992 mb Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-291345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas
10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-291345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
340 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt early becoming SW 20 to 30 kt. Seas 
15 to 22 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 18 to
23 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

978 
FZAK61 PAFC 291231
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
331 AM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-300200-
331 AM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A strong front along the North Gulf Coast will move inland this
morning. A 954 mb Bering low will cross the Akpen today and enter
the Gulf near 54N 153W at 983 mb Thu morning. The low will then 
continue to weaken to 1000 mb as it moves into the northeast 
Pacific by early Fri morning.

$$

PKZ351-300200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
331 AM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming SE up to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-300200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
331 AM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 19 to 23 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

096 
FZAK61 PAFC 300017
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-301400-
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 967 mb low at 55N 161W moves to 55N 150W at 990 mb Thu
afternoon. The weakening low then moves to the southeast and 
exits the Gulf Fri afternoon. A front enters the western Gulf Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-301400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind up to 10 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas
9 to 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft.

$$

PKZ352-301400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 20 to 24 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The strong low in the eastern Bering Sea has become vertically
stacked and is starting to weaken this afternoon. The jet stream
is now feeding a developing low near the tip of the Kamchatka
Peninsula which will become the dominant low by Monday. A weaker
upper level low is over the Alaska Range near Denali and
retrograding westward. The front associated with the Bering Sea
low is elongating over Kodiak Island and the Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are now in tight agreement with the movement of the large
Bering Sea low having it move across the Alaska Peninsula Monday
and rapidly weaken. A low which is currently near the southern
tip of Kamchatka will move eastward and rapidly strengthen Monday
into Tuesday and the most models are beginning to converge on a
common solution for this one as well by bringing it near Atka by
Monday evening. At least they are close enough to get a reasonable
forecast solution for the Aleutians and Bering Sea. The big
uncertainty right now involves a triple point low which will
develop south of the central Aleutians and the Atka low Monday
evening. This triple point low will rapidly intensify as it moves
east of the main low and then these two lows should merge Tuesday
night in the eastern Bering Sea just west of Bristol Bay. This
type of system is subject to rapidly change in track and intensity
so it will bear watching the next few days to see how it
develops.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist into
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Light to moderate snow has been ongoing much of the day across
western Prince William Sound and Portage Valley. The
precipitation will persist through that area for the next couple
days as a series of progressively warmer fronts move northward
into the coast. The easterly winds out ahead of the fronts will
aid in producing additional locally heavy snow (and eventually
rain) along the coast through Tuesday. In addition to those
fronts, the winds will increase through Turnagain Pass and Portage
Valley, leading to areas of blowing snow which may locally reduce
visibilities and cause hazardous conditions. For now the biggest
question is how strong the winds will be at the valley level,
leading to uncertainty as to how widespread the locally reduced
visibilities from blowing snow will be. For now though, with light
winds in Portage Valley, all of the visibility reductions through
this evening will be due to falling snow until the winds kick up
later tonight, adding the blowing snow component.

As alluded to above, increasingly warmer air moving north out of
the Gulf with each front will begin a steady warmup area-wide
over the next few days as a warmer, cloudier pattern sets up
across Southcentral. Currently Kodiak remains as snow, but expect
that will change over the next few hours. That warm air will
change the precipitation falling in all coastal communities along
the Gulf to a mix of snow and rain as early as Monday morning,
then all rain on Tuesday. The precipitation associated with all
the incoming fronts Monday and Tuesday is not expected to survive
the downsloping expected to the lee of the Chugach and Kenai
Mountains. Thus, places like the western Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley, and eastern Susitna Valley are
expected to remain mainly dry, though under cloudy skies with
steadily warming temperatures. The first above freezing
temperatures in over three weeks (since November 6th) are expected
in Anchorage as soon as Tuesday afternoon and no later than
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front from the Bering low is breaking apart as it pushes
through southwest Alaska resulting in snowfall diminishing over
the area as well. However, showers will still linger as the low
tracks across the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf. On Tuesday,
another front will move in over the area bringing a mix of rain
and snow to southwest Alaska. Most of southwest Alaska will stay
snow but locations around Bristol Bay will receive a strong
enough push of warm air to see some rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The sub 950 mb low in the southeast Bering is still bringing a
wide swath of storm force winds to the southern Bering, Central
Aleutians, and Eastern Aleutians. This strong core of winds will
continue to bring warning level winds to these locations into
tonight before diminishing with the Eastern Aleutians seeing the
warning level winds into Monday morning. The low will then weaken
and exit towards the Gulf on Monday. Another low will then track
in from the west making it into the southern Bering Monday morning
where it will bomb out and bring another round of strong winds to
the Central Aleutians Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The models have come into much better agreement in the track of a
front that will move through the Gulf late Tue-Wed, which is now
expected to bring gale force winds into the North Gulf/Prince
William Sound, as well as strong winds through Turnagain Arm and
Thompson Pass. This front will also bring widespread snow (mixed
with rain near sea level) from the Eastern Kenai Peninsula
eastward into Thompson Pass. This snow, along with gusty winds
along the front is expected to bring areas of blowing snow,
especially to Thompson Pass where temperatures will remain much
cooler throughout the event. Over the Anchorage Bowl/Matanuska
Valley, deep southeasterly flow and downsloping will prevent
most, if not all of the precipitation from reaching the ground as
the front makes landfall Tue night, with just a chance of snow in
the area as downsloping begins to weaken on Wednesday.

Over the Bering on Tuesday, yet another storm force low will begin
to weaken over the Eastern Bering through Wednesday, however a
very active weather pattern is expected to continue into the
middle of next week as another gale to (potentially) storm force
low approaches the Western Aleutians late Wednesday. The good news
for the Bering Sea/Aleutians region is there is good agreement
that this system will slowly move through the Northern Bering
into next weekend, providing most of the area with a break in the
very active and progressive pattern. Over the Gulf and
Southcentral, the typical setup of cold and dry conditions is
expected to continue until Saturday when there is reasonable model
consensus of a developing triple point low impacting the area for
the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 185 and 187
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 181
         Hurricane Force Wind Warning 173 174 175
         Storm Warning 155 170 171 172 176 177
         Gale Warning 119 130 150 165 178 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DWK
LONG TERM...DEK