Gale Warning 587, NWS Anchorage, AK

981 
FZAK62 PAFC 271303
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
403 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-280200-
403 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 959 mb low at 56N 165W will move into the western Gulf by Mon 
afternoon at 971 mb. A second 979 mb North Pacific low at 52N 
176E will move to 54N 173W at 959 mb by this afternoon, then moves
to 55N 165W at 950 mb by Wed morning. A third low at 947 mb will 
move to 55N 158W by Tue afternoon before getting absorbed into 
the second low at 55N 165W. 

$$

PKZ411-280200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
403 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 16 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-280200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
403 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-280200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
403 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain showers with
snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-280200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
403 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

650 
FZAK62 PAFC 271342 AAA
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-280415-
442 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 959 mb low at 56N 165W will move into the western Gulf by Mon 
afternoon at 971 mb. A second 979 mb North Pacific low at 52N 
176E will move to 54N 173W at 959 mb by this afternoon, then moves
to 55N 165W at 950 mb by Wed morning. A third low at 947 mb will 
move to 55N 158W by Tue afternoon before getting absorbed into 
the second low at 55N 165W. 

$$

PKZ411-280415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
442 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 16 ft. Snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-280415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
442 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-280415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
442 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain showers
and snow showers. 
.TUE...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain showers with
snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-280415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
442 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

896 
FZAK62 PAFC 280025
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
325 PM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-281415-
325 PM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 972 nm low at 57N 156W moves to 58N 151W at 982 mb then 
dissipates late this evening. A 962 mb low just northeast of Atka
deepens to 951 mb as it moves to 55N 168W Tue morning then
maintains strength as it tracks to 57N 163W Wed morning. This low
weakens to 965 mb as it moves to 55N 161W Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
325 PM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 24 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
325 PM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
325 PM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 24 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft. Snow showers
and showers.
.WED...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
325 PM AKST Mon Nov 27 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt by midnight. 
Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The most significant feature over the forecast area is a
deepening low pressure system spreading across much of the Bering
Sea and Aleutian chain. This low has intensified significantly and
is causing northerly hurricane force winds throughout the Central
Bering and Aleutians. Hurricane force winds are already being
observed over Adak at 89 mph and continue to increase. Current
scatterometer data has also been observed, showing 70 mph winds
throughout the Western Bering and shifting eastward while
intensifying. The winds are being supported by an upper level jet
streak with wind speeds near 150 mph with the low sitting in the
upper-left exit region. Showery precipitation has also been
reported on the backside of the low in the Western/Central
Aleutians and is mostly falling as rain. The associated front is
moving toward the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Bristol Bay bringing
snowfall and increasing winds to the coastline.

While not as strong as the storm in the Bering, there is a
weakening low in the Northern Gulf which brought 4 inches of snow
to Cordova yesterday. The weak wave on the northern periphery of
the system that produced the above mentioned snowfall, continues
to track westward through Prince William Sound while weakening.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The biggest model question for the past few days is the behavior
of the intense Bering Sea low after it moves into Bristol Bay
tonight into Monday. The ECMWF and Canadian models began to shift
the low farther south and across the Alaska Peninsula with
another strengthening low in the vicinity of Adak on Monday.
Whereas the American models continue to trend toward the
EC/Canadian solution with each passing model run. This agreement
continues to raise confidence that there will be little, if any,
coastal flooding in the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay as the
track of the low and subsequent weakening of it are not conducive
for flooding.

The north Gulf coast also has a bit of a change that the models
are currently working out. The weak low tracking westward over the
northern Gulf from the east is moving faster and progressing
farther west than the models have been showing. This system is
expected to bringing some snow over the eastern Kenai this today,
with a very small chance of bringing some snow flurries as far
west as Anchorage.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist
today.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low over the northern Gulf (and associated snow showers) will
continue a slow westward track today. The low level flow is in
opposition to the upper level flow, so have slowed down the
arrival of snow showers in western Prince William Sound. With
weaker advection, it looks less and less likely that any snow will
make it over the Chugach and Kenai Mountains. Cold and dry air in
place would likely lead to evaporation of snow before it reaches
the ground anyway. Contrary to this, have upped the likelihood of
snow over the Susitna Valley this afternoon and evening as an
upper low over Fairbanks area tracks westward, with potential for
some weak lift on the south side of the low to interact with mid
level moisture moving in from the northern Gulf. In any case, any
snow that does fall in the Susitna Valley will be very light.

The focus for upcoming days is on the deep Bering Sea low, which
is setting up a change in pattern from the cold dry and windy
weather we've seen of late to warmer and "wetter" weather. The
first sign of this change will be a trough and surface front
headed to Kodiak Island today. This is on track to bring light
snow accumulation to the island before transitioning to rain this
afternoon and evening. The upper trough becomes fairly diffuse as
it continues northward toward Southcentral, so expect the bulk of
precip to be confined to the coastal zone. More specifically, low
level southeasterly flow will enhance snow amounts over western
Prince William Sound and the west side of Cook Inlet on Monday.
Precipitation type will remain mostly snow, with the possibility
of mixed precip along the immediate coast by Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile, inland areas will stay mostly dry, but cloud cover and
weak warm air advection will lead to moderation of temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Snow continues to push inland early this morning, accompanied by
gusty winds. Some observations have approached blizzard criteria
at times, but this threat looks to be limited both temporally and
spatially enough to preclude any upgrade to the current
headlines. Otherwise, as a strong ~941 mb low continues to slow
its progression as it nears the Pribilof Islands, and the
associated surface front occludes west of a Bethel to King Salmon
line. Areas of light to moderate snow are developing along and
immediately behind the front.

As the low begins to fill (become vertically stacked and weaken)
this evening and overnight, precipitation will become lighter and
more showery in nature. This low will emerge into the Gulf of
Alaska by Monday evening, another rapidly strengthening low will
undergo bombogenesis (strengthening at least 20 mb in 24 hours),
as it moves from near Shemya at 980 mb around midnight tonight to
~941 mb once again in a similar location to the current storm. It
too will send another front inland across southwest Alaska.
However, this time around though temperatures in the lowest few
thousand feet will have warmed enough for any precipitation to be
of the liquid variety.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The much advertised storm is well underway, with gusts having
topped 90 mph early this morning. Some gusts will likely top 100
mph, with perhaps a few gusts getting near 120mph. This is quite
a storm with waves forecast near 55 mph, and even a secondary
vort diving southeast on the backside of the low having produced a
squall lien with abundant lightning south of the chain.

A prolonged period of windy conditions will continue through
Monday morning, as several vort maxes rotate around the low and
help mix down the winds aloft given the low PV (potential
vorticity) heights and the degree of cold advection associated
with this system. Snow levels will be low enough for some
accumulating snow to occur along western and central portions of
the Aleutians. This storm will weaken overnight tonight into
Monday as it slides off to the southeast. However, another rapidly
deepening low will approach the region as described above, with
more hurricane force winds likely somewhere in the Monday night
through Tuesday time frame.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Forecast confidence in the long-term is fairly low at this point,
due to the run to run variation in the models over the past few
days. The overall change in the pattern from a clear. dry pattern
for the mainland to a warmer, stormier pattern still stands, but
the exact timing and effects of the low pressure systems seems to
change from model to model on a run to run basis.

Current thinking is that a low will rapidly develop into a storm-
force system in the Bering Sea on Tuesday, bringing high winds
once again to the Aleutians. This low is expected to develop a
secondary low south of the AK Pen, pushing a strong front into
South Central Tuesday night into Wednesday. A lot of warm air is
associated with this front, which will cause some challenges with
forecasting precipitation type, in particular in the Bristol Bay
and Kenai Peninsula regions. High winds with the front may move
through Southcentral -- although current model runs are slightly
weaker than yesterday.

After Wednesday, another front moves into the Western Bering on
Thursday and begins to cross the Bering Sea. Although this
indicates a continued stormy pattern, the timing and strength of
this system is highly variable between model solutions, so
confidence in current specifics of the forecast remains low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 185 187.
         Winter Weather Advisory 155 161.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 170 172-176 413.
         Storm Warning 155 160 171 177 180 181 185.
         Gale Warning 119 127 130 150 165 178 179.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 160 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP/RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...LF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
122 PM AKST SUN NOV 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST UNALASKA                53.93N 166.51W
11/26/2017  M91 MPH                             AK   AWOS

            HIGHEST PEAK WIND RECORDED. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 71 MPH FROM
            934 AM THROUGH 1256 PM.

&&

AHILL