Severe Thunderstorm Warning 461, NWS Albuquerque, NM

058 
WWUS55 KABQ 302031
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
231 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMC031-043-302045-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0461.000000T0000Z-170930T2045Z/
McKinley-Sandoval-
231 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MDT
FOR EASTERN MCKINLEY AND WEST CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTIES...

At 231 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 14 miles southwest
of Torreon Navajo Mission, or 34 miles southwest of Cuba, moving east
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
eastern McKinley and west central Sandoval Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 10747 3570 10741 3575 10709 3547 10714
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 266DEG 20KT 3561 10732 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Guyer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
155 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
One more active weather afternoon and night before we get a break
Sunday into Monday. Storms should fire along a dry line Monday
evening on the eastern plains, and more widespread on Tuesday
afternoon and evening. A back door cold front will plunge south
Tuesday night into Wednesday with a fresh supply of moisture.
Wednesday through Thursday will be unsettled area wide before a
drying trend Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another busy afternoon underway with showers and thunderstorms firing
across northwest NM. A short wave trough over northern NM will keep
it active through the evening and into the night. Main weather threat
will be flash flooding as many areas are already saturated from rain
over the past week. Isolated severe weather is also possible.

Finally some drying Sunday in the wake of the short wave trough.
There will be much less storm coverage, while temperatures rise 5 to
10 degrees above today, mostly near normal.

Monday will be dry as well during the day, but a dry line may activate
on the far eastern plains Monday evening. This will spread moisture
west, making Tuesday afternoon and evening more active across much of
the east. A back door cold front will plunge south Tuesday night and
west Wednesday, increasing low level moisture over much of the state.
This means another round of widespread rain for Wednesday through
Thursday evening. Another drying trend for Friday and Saturday as a
trough swings through the state.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wet conditions continue as showers and storms impact NM once again
today. Soil moisture values have improved even further across most
of northern and central NM, with the exception of some patchy areas
along the Arizona border. The next round of storms firing up near
the Cont Divide will shift east across NM and drop widespread
wetting rainfall again through this evening. More fog, low clouds,
and spotty showers overnight will taper off by sunrise Sunday.

Drier air over Arizona will move east across NM Sunday and trend
humidities 25 to 35% lower than today. Ventilation will improve to
excellent across the western half and good across the east. Temps
will trend nearly 10 degrees warmer with deeper mixing allowing for
some late day breezes. Overnight recoveries Monday morning will
still be very good all areas with wet soils in place.

The next upper level wave will approach the Great Basin Monday and
spread stronger winds over NM. Southwest winds of 25 to 35mph with
gusts as high as 50 mph are possible across western NM and over the
northeastern plains. Ventilation will be excellent all areas with
moderate to high haines and temps slightly above normal. Min RH will
range from 10 to 15% across the west to 20 to 30% across the east.

Low level moisture will begin surging northwest again across the
east Monday evening. Showers and storms are possible once again with
locally heavy rainfall. This moisture will continue advancing to the
northwest Tuesday and especially Wednesday as the upper level wave
deepens over Nevada. This will also help draw mid and upper level
moisture into the state and set the stage for at least scattered
showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall as far west as the
Cont Divide through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Widespread IFR cigs with patchy FG over eastern NM will lift to MVFR
most areas for a brief period aft 20Z before falling once again to
IFR aft sunset. Potential for SHRA/TSRA is most likely btwn 22Z and
02Z however coverage does not appear to high enough for TEMPO at
sites other than KLVS. Farther west, TSRA ongoing will taper off for
a brief period thru 20Z then increase in coverage as a line of TSRA
thereafter. Shifted timing a tad later for Rio Grande Valley sites
with greatest confidence between 22Z and 01Z. Some of these storms
may produce brief MVFR cigs/vsbys with +RA. Lingering SHRA into the
overnight will impact the central mt chain before clearing aft 08Z.
Drier air surging in from the west Sunday will finally shift active
weather east of NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  49  78  46  77 /  20   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  44  72  39  74 /  60   5   0   5
Cuba............................  47  73  44  75 /  40   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  44  76  41  77 /  10   0   0   0
El Morro........................  41  74  36  74 /  20   0   0   0
Grants..........................  45  76  40  78 /  20   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  46  75  43  76 /  10   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  52  81  50  83 /  10   0   0   0
Chama...........................  42  65  37  69 /  60  20   0   5
Los Alamos......................  51  73  48  74 /  50  10   5   5
Pecos...........................  50  72  47  75 /  60  20   5   5
Cerro/Questa....................  46  67  41  70 /  60  10   0   5
Red River.......................  41  59  37  65 /  60  10   5   5
Angel Fire......................  42  65  37  69 /  60  20   5   5
Taos............................  47  71  41  74 /  60  10   0   5
Mora............................  46  71  45  73 /  60  10   5   5
Espanola........................  54  78  49  79 /  40  10   0   5
Santa Fe........................  52  73  49  75 /  60  20   5   5
Santa Fe Airport................  52  76  46  78 /  60  20   5   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  79  52  80 /  50  10   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  80  55  82 /  50  10   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  53  81  52  84 /  40  10   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  79  54  82 /  50  10   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  54  81  51  85 /  30  10   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  56  79  53  82 /  50  10   0   5
Socorro.........................  57  81  54  85 /  20   5   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  73  47  76 /  60  10   5   5
Tijeras.........................  53  75  47  78 /  60  10   5   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  77  46  79 /  50  10   5   5
Clines Corners..................  52  73  48  76 /  60  20   5   5
Gran Quivira....................  54  74  51  77 /  40  20   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  55  77  55  79 /  20  10   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  51  72  51  73 /  20  20   5   5
Capulin.........................  50  72  45  75 /  30  10  10  10
Raton...........................  49  75  45  77 /  30  10   5   5
Springer........................  50  76  47  78 /  30  10   5   5
Las Vegas.......................  50  73  48  76 /  60  10   5   5
Clayton.........................  56  77  54  78 /  30  10  10  10
Roy.............................  53  76  50  78 /  50  10  10   5
Conchas.........................  61  81  57  84 /  40  10  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  58  80  55  84 /  30  10   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  61  81  60  86 /  30  10  10  10
Clovis..........................  59  77  58  82 /  20  20  10  10
Portales........................  59  78  59  83 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  60  79  58  83 /  30  20  10   5
Roswell.........................  61  83  59  87 /  20  10  10  10
Picacho.........................  54  79  55  82 /  30  20   5   5
Elk.............................  53  77  53  78 /  20  10   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ503-504-506-507-510>521-527>529.

&&

40

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
416 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017

NMZ501>540-011100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
416 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect into this evening for portions of
central and northern New Mexico.

A few strong to severe storms are possible later this afternoon,
mainly between the Continental Divide and the Rio Grande Valley.
Large hail is the primary threat, with potential for significant hail
accumulation on roadways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A few severe storms are possible across the Eastern Plains Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

Locally heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding are possible by
the end of the work week across much of central and western New
Mexico.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1200 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ510-301815-
San Juan Mountains-
1200 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA COUNTY UNTIL
1215 PM MDT...

At 1159 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Canjilon, or 9 miles south of Tierra Amarilla, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Canjilon and Cebolla.

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3645 10656 3661 10662 3671 10639 3647 10629
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 244DEG 24KT 3656 10649

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1209 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ505-301830-
West Central Plateau-
1209 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CIBOLA AND NORTHERN
CATRON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM MDT...

At 1209 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles west of Fence Lake, or 30 miles south of Zuni Pueblo, moving
east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Cibola
and northern Catron Counties.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 10904 3471 10905 3481 10883 3456 10868
      3453 10904 3462 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 253DEG 20KT 3464 10894

Guyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1230 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ505-301845-
West Central Plateau-
1230 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CIBOLA AND NORTHERN
CATRON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM MDT...

At 1230 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Fence Lake, or 30 miles south of Zuni Pueblo, moving
east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fence Lake.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3453 10895 3471 10898 3479 10870 3453 10865
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 261DEG 14KT 3464 10888

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1247 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ504-506-301915-
West Central Mountains-Northwest Highlands-
1247 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MCKINLEY COUNTY
UNTIL 115 PM MDT...

At 1247 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles southeast of Crownpoint, moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
McKinley County.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 10794 3563 10799 3578 10765 3553 10753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 249DEG 18KT 3558 10787

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1251 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ505-506-301915-
West Central Mountains-West Central Plateau-
1251 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MCKINLEY COUNTY UNTIL 115
PM MDT...

At 1251 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fort Wingate, or 9 miles east of Gallup, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Gallup, Fort Wingate, Coolidge, Church Rock, Red Rock
and Pinedale.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 27 and 44.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 10863 3553 10866 3563 10844 3544 10836
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 249DEG 18KT 3549 10857

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
155 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ506-302030-
West Central Mountains-
155 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CIBOLA COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MDT...

At 155 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Fence Lake, or 34 miles southeast of Zuni Pueblo,
moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Cibola County.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3463 10851 3473 10854 3486 10826 3465 10819
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 248DEG 25KT 3469 10846

24