Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Albuquerque, NM

373 
WGUS75 KABQ 300218
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
818 PM MDT FRI SEP 29 2017

NMC053-061-300300-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170930T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Valencia-Socorro-
818 PM MDT FRI SEP 29 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL VALENCIA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTIES...

At 806 PM MDT, emergency management reported flash flood waters 
slowly receding in and around Belen. The Valencia County Emergency 
Manager, Manny Garcia, has the following request: "If you see water 
in the street, drive real slowly so the water doesn't go into nearby 
homes and businesses." Some homes and businesses continue to 
experience flooding, and others could flood if drivers are not 
careful. Manny reported that the drains are working and crews have 
been clearing them of debris, but it will take time for this much 
water to recede. Further, the New Mexico Department of 
Transportation has closed Interstate 25 in southern Belen, from mile 
markers 189 to 191, due to flood water on the highway. Other roads 
between Belen and the Interstate 25 Highway 60 junction have also 
been closed.

Some other locations that will probably experience flooding 
include...Valencia, Rio Communities North, Veguita, El Cerro 
Mission, Jarales, Los Trujillos-Gabaldon, Tome, Casa Colorada and 
Rio Communities.

Although the rain has stopped for now, weather models indicate 
addition thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rainfall may cross the 
warned area through the night tonight and into early Saturday 
morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flash flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 10661 3445 10670 3443 10704 3477 10691

$$

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215 
WGUS75 KABQ 300301
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
901 PM MDT FRI SEP 29 2017

NMC053-061-300307-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170930T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Valencia-Socorro-
901 PM MDT FRI SEP 29 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL VALENCIA AND NORTH CENTRAL
SOCORRO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM MDT...

Flood waters are slowly receding. Flooding will continue to be 
hazardous into the late night hours as the flood waters slowly drain 
off city streets. Roads remain closed due to flooding in southern 
Valencia and northern Socorro Counties. For more information visit 
nmroads.com. Please follow road closure instructions.

LAT...LON 3479 10661 3445 10670 3443 10704 3477 10691

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
520 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Mts obscured. Upper low over UT with upper trof extending swd
continue to impact NM thru 30/18Z with some drier air pushing into
far wrn NM thereafter. Moist low level easterly flow to persist thru
30/15Z from the central mt chain across ern NM with widespread IFR
cigs/vsbys in br/fg and light rain. From the central mt chain wwd,
sct showers and tstsm moving ne will persist with brief MVFR to IFR
cigs/vsbys in precipitation and gusty winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2017...
...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS...

.SYNOPSIS...
Rich moisture will persist over northern and central New Mexico with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected through
Saturday. A broad upper level trough entering the Pacific Northwest
will steer drier air gradually eastward over New Mexico Saturday with
less of a flash flood threat by Saturday evening. A slow moving upper
level low pressure system will develop near the Great Basin during
the first half of the coming week causing drier southwest flow to
strengthen over New Mexico with breezy conditions both Sunday and
Monday. The upper low will then draw rich moisture for thunderstorms
over the state gradually from the southeast and east Monday night
through the remainder of the work week. Some strong to severe storms
will be possible next week with a risk of flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper trough lingering over the western US as an upper level low
pressure system shifts gradually northward from WY to MT will
continue to draw rich moisture over NM into Saturday. Models depict
showers and thunderstorms continuing to favor northern central and
western areas tonight and Saturday. With PWATs from 0.5 to 1.5
inches, moderate to heavy rain will be possible from some storms.
Will continue the Flash Flood Watch since the ground is already
saturdated in many locations. In these locations it won't take as
much rainfall for flash flooding to develop. There may be somewhat of
a dryline that crosses western areas from the west on Saturday
afternoon as the aformentioned upper trough over the Pacific
Northwest steers drier air into the area. This could be a focus for
strong to severe storms capable of heavy rain and flash flooding.
Recent model runs suggest fairly rich moisture persisting over the
Rio Grande Valley and central mountain chain Saturday evening. If
this pans out, we may need to extend the Flash Flood Watch into
Saturday evening.

Models agree on an upper level low pressure system developing
somewhere around the Great Basin early next week, but there are
significant differences on placement. They also agree it will stall
over the western US through the work week, while drawing a rich
return flow of moisture over NM from the southeast and east. With
fairly strong southwest flow aloft riding over the low level return
flow, it looks like there will be enough shear for strong to severe
storms. Further, PWATS roughly around 1 inch will potentially lead to
areas of heavy rainfall and more flash flooding concerns.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very wet conditions continue over NM today with yet another round of
showers and storms across central and western areas, and widespread
fog, low clouds, and light rain east of the central mt chain. NASA
SPoRT LIS soil moisture values have improved significantly down to
the 40cm layer. A flash flood watch is now in effect for northwest
portions of NM, including the ABQ and SAF metro areas. The east will
stay socked in with 100% humidity overnight. Another active day is
on tap Saturday before moisture is scoured from central and western
areas. Ventilation improvements will range from excellent along the
AZ border to poor over eastern NM.

The upper wave responsible for all the wet weather will eject well
north of the region and allow drier westerly flow to set up over NM
Sunday. Ventilation rates will improve to excellent over central and
western NM and become fair over the east. Minimum humidities Sunday
will trend roughly 20-30% lower than Saturday and winds will be
noticeably more breezy. The far east central and southeastern plains
may be able to hold onto just enough moisture for a couple late day
showers and storms. Overnight recoveries into Monday morning will
still be very good most areas as soil moisture remains high.

The next upper level trough will begin developing southward toward
the Great Basin Monday. Stronger southwest flow aloft will help
generate widespread breezy to locally windy conditions. Minimum
humidities will remain above critical values. Ventilation will
improve to excellent all areas with moderate to high haines. A few
storms may again develop over southeast NM from late day into the
evening. The upper trough will attempt to dig even farther south
into the Great Basin by Tuesday and allow moisture to surge back
north and west across NM. This may set the stage for another multi-
day active wet period through Friday.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ503-504-506-507-510>519-521-527>529.

Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following
zones... NMZ505.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
417 AM MDT Fri Sep 29 2017

NMZ501>540-301100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
417 AM MDT Fri Sep 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong storms are possible across western New Mexico this
afternoon and evening. Torrential downpours and small hail are the
primary threats. Minor flooding is possible due to heavy downpours
over already saturated soils.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Chances for thunderstorms will be on the uptrend from Tuesday through
Thursday, with a few strong storms possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
441 PM MDT FRI SEP 29 2017

NMZ507-519-520-292315-
West Central Highlands-Lower Rio Grande Valley-Middle Rio Grande
Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
441 PM MDT FRI SEP 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VALENCIA AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

At 440 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Bernardo, or 13 miles southwest of Belen, moving
east at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm. Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Belen, Veguita, Sabinal, Jarales, Casa Colorada and Los
Trujillos-Gabaldon.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 180 and 195.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3443 10707 3453 10709 3470 10679 3450 10673
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 251DEG 9KT 3452 10695

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
450 PM MDT FRI SEP 29 2017

NMZ506-507-292315-
West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-
450 PM MDT FRI SEP 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CIBOLA COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

At 449 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles south of Acoma Pueblo, or 28 miles south of Laguna Pueblo,
moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Cibola
County.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 10764 3473 10763 3480 10739 3458 10737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 265DEG 18KT 3466 10756

Guyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
552 PM MDT FRI SEP 29 2017

NMZ508-520-300030-
Southwest Mountains-Lower Rio Grande Valley-
552 PM MDT FRI SEP 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SOCORRO COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM MDT...

At 551 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Winston, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Socorro County.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 103 and 111.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3348 10772 3355 10772 3361 10713 3348 10712
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 265DEG 9KT 3349 10763

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
641 PM MDT FRI SEP 29 2017

NMZ524-300115-
South Central Highlands-
641 PM MDT FRI SEP 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...
NORTHEASTERN SOCORRO AND SOUTHWESTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM
MDT...

At 640 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Abo, or 31 miles south of Estancia, moving east at
30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm along with heavy rain.

Locations impacted include...
Claunch and Gran Quivira.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3429 10647 3444 10632 3436 10584 3435 10583
      3435 10582 3434 10581 3433 10579 3404 10606
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 284DEG 37KT 3434 10626

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
652 PM MDT FRI SEP 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             VEGUITA                 34.52N 106.77W
09/29/2017  M1.75 INCH       SOCORRO            NM   PUBLIC

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VEGUITA                 34.52N 106.77W
09/29/2017                   SOCORRO            NM   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702201
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702202

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
657 PM MDT FRI SEP 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BELEN                   34.66N 106.78W
09/29/2017                   VALENCIA           NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            VALENCIA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702203

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