Severe Thunderstorm Warning 459, NWS Albuquerque, NM

159 
WWUS55 KABQ 301905
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
105 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMC003-006-301930-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0459.000000T0000Z-170930T1930Z/
Cibola-Catron-
105 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN CIBOLA AND NORTH CENTRAL CATRON COUNTIES...

At 104 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fence Lake, or
29 miles south of Zuni Pueblo, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Fence Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Accumulations of hail 1-2 inches on roads can create very slick and 
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3460 10881 3471 10882 3481 10863 3454 10858
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 261DEG 15KT 3467 10870 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1159 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Widespread IFR cigs with patchy FG over eastern NM will lift to MVFR
most areas for a brief period aft 20Z before falling once again to
IFR aft sunset. Potential for SHRA/TSRA is most likely btwn 22Z and
02Z however coverage does not appear to high enough for TEMPO at
sites other than KLVS. Farther west, TSRA ongoing will taper off for
a brief period thru 20Z then increase in coverage as a line of TSRA
thereafter. Shifted timing a tad later for Rio Grande Valley sites
with greatest confidence between 22Z and 01Z. Some of these storms
may produce brief MVFR cigs/vsbys with +RA. Lingering SHRA into the
overnight will impact the central mt chain before clearing aft 08Z.
Drier air surging in from the west Sunday will finally shift active
weather east of NM.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...231 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another active thunderstorm day is expected, with some storms
possibly becoming strong to severe by afternoon. Localized flash
flooding is possible this afternoon and evening as well, mainly due
to already saturated soils increasing runoff. High temperatures will
be below normal once again, although a few degrees warmer than the
past couple of days. A drying and warming trend will begin Sunday,
with daytime temperatures rising above normal and little to no
chance for rain. In addition, Sunday and Monday will be breezy to
locally windy. Moisture will come back Monday night into Tuesday and
lead to another week of thunderstorm activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Plenty of atmospheric moisture remains over the area, with the 00Z
KABQ sounding showing a PWAT of 0.75" and the latest surface dewpoint
temperature at KABQ coming in at 53 degrees. Convection is
persisting through the overnight hours once again, although isolated
at this time. Another active day is expected, aided by a vorticity
max currently pulling E/NE out of southeast AZ per the latest water
vapor satellite imagery. Improving veering wind profiles will make
for increased bulk shear today, increasing the threat of strong to
severe storms. That said, surface based instability will be limited
some by below normal temperatures. Heavy downpours will create
localized flash flooding thanks mainly to already saturated soils.
The existing flash flood watch will be continued and will add the
Lower Rio Grande Valley given earlier heavy rains.

A short-lived warming/drying trend will begin Sunday and continue
into Monday, with PWATs getting cut in more than half. By Monday,
daytime temperatures will be above normal most areas. Sunday and
Monday are looking like breezy to locally windy days thanks in part
to a deepening lee side trough.

Moisture advection is forecast beginning Monday night through the end
of the work week as a complex troughing pattern evolves across the
Intermountain West and a dominant ridge of high pressure strengthens
to our east. The addition of a backdoor cold front at some point
between Tuesday and Thursday will be an added ingredient for forcing
convection. Timing of the backdoor front is a low confidence forecast
at this time, with the 00Z ECMWF bringing it down Tuesday and the 00Z
GFS holding-off until Thursday. The 00Z operational model runs begin
to depart significantly with the handling of the trough toward the
end of the work week, so forecast confidence really drops off quickly
from mid to late week.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Weather prediction models continue to trend wetter for today as low
level moisture hangs tough and an upper level short-wave trough
moves up from the southwest. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop once again through the day. Movement will
be from the west-southwest to east-northeast at around 30 mph.
Showers and storms will continue well into the overnight hours,
primarily over central and eastern areas of the state.

Brisk west to southwest winds remain on track for Sunday, finally
scouring out low level moisture areawide. The drying trend continues
into Monday, with the exception of a few storms developing along the
dryline near the TX border. Forecast models are now stronger with a
lee side trough/low and the resulting southwest winds for Monday.
Breezy to locally windy conditons setting up across much of the
state Monday afternoon.

Winds drop off across western and central NM Tuesday with brisk
south to southeast winds continuing across the eastern plains. Gulf
moisture is forecast to surge nwwd into eastern NM Tuesday night.
GFS and ECMWF remain at odds as to how the moisture moves into the
state but both sensible weather forecasts remain similar. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms are progged to break out across the
eastern plains Tuesday night, spreading westward into central and
western NM Wednesday. The active weather is forecast to continue
through Thursday night. GFS and ECWMF differ on how to handle the
two upper level closed lows dancing with one another over/near the
PACNW. ECMWF dries things out Friday but the GFS keeps things wet
through next weekend, bringing one of the upper lows over the
southwest U.S.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ503-504-506-507-510>521-527>529.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
416 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017

NMZ501>540-011100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
416 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect into this evening for portions of
central and northern New Mexico.

A few strong to severe storms are possible later this afternoon,
mainly between the Continental Divide and the Rio Grande Valley.
Large hail is the primary threat, with potential for significant hail
accumulation on roadways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A few severe storms are possible across the Eastern Plains Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

Locally heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding are possible by
the end of the work week across much of central and western New
Mexico.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1032 AM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ504-301645-
Northwest Highlands-
1032 AM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA COUNTY UNTIL
1045 AM MDT...

At 1031 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lindrith, or 23 miles north of Cuba, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lindrith.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 10710 3642 10713 3651 10691 3630 10686
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 246DEG 20KT 3636 10705

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1104 AM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ505-506-301730-
West Central Mountains-West Central Plateau-
1104 AM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MCKINLEY COUNTY UNTIL
1130 AM MDT...

At 1104 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fort Wingate, or 14 miles east of Gallup, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Wingate, Coolidge, McGaffey, Pinedale and Thoreau.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 34 and 50.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 10851 3548 10858 3563 10842 3541 10826
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 230DEG 17KT 3545 10849

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1115 AM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ504-511-301745-
Northwest Highlands-Jemez Mountains-
1115 AM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA AND NORTH
CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM MDT...

At 1114 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Counselor, or 23 miles west of Cuba, moving east
at 20 mph.

Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will be possible
with this storm.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will also be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lindrith, Regina and La Jara.

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3607 10741 3617 10744 3639 10724 3650 10693
      3611 10690
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 249DEG 19KT 3613 10735

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1200 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ510-301815-
San Juan Mountains-
1200 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA COUNTY UNTIL
1215 PM MDT...

At 1159 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Canjilon, or 9 miles south of Tierra Amarilla, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Canjilon and Cebolla.

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3645 10656 3661 10662 3671 10639 3647 10629
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 244DEG 24KT 3656 10649

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1209 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ505-301830-
West Central Plateau-
1209 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CIBOLA AND NORTHERN
CATRON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM MDT...

At 1209 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles west of Fence Lake, or 30 miles south of Zuni Pueblo, moving
east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Cibola
and northern Catron Counties.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 10904 3471 10905 3481 10883 3456 10868
      3453 10904 3462 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 253DEG 20KT 3464 10894

Guyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1230 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ505-301845-
West Central Plateau-
1230 PM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CIBOLA AND NORTHERN
CATRON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM MDT...

At 1230 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Fence Lake, or 30 miles south of Zuni Pueblo, moving
east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fence Lake.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3453 10895 3471 10898 3479 10870 3453 10865
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 261DEG 14KT 3464 10888

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