River Flood Advisory 1, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
608 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Widespread IFR cigs/vsbys in br/fg will continue from the east slopes
of the central mt chain ewd to the TX line through late morning. A
weak upper level short-wave trough in southwest flow aloft will move
through NM today through this evening, continuing sct-nmrs thunderstorm
coverage. MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys and mt obscurations will be common
from the stronger storms. Storm motion is forecast to become more
west to east today. Very heavy rain and plentiful small hail will be
the primary threats to aviation this afternoon and evening. Added
hail (GS) to the KSAF, KLVS and KABQ terminal forecasts as a result.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...231 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another active thunderstorm day is expected, with some storms
possibly becoming strong to severe by afternoon. Localized flash
flooding is possible this afternoon and evening as well, mainly due
to already saturated soils increasing runoff. High temperatures will
be below normal once again, although a few degrees warmer than the
past couple of days. A drying and warming trend will begin Sunday,
with daytime temperatures rising above normal and little to no
chance for rain. In addition, Sunday and Monday will be breezy to
locally windy. Moisture will come back Monday night into Tuesday and
lead to another week of thunderstorm activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Plenty of atmospheric moisture remains over the area, with the 00Z
KABQ sounding showing a PWAT of 0.75" and the latest surface dewpoint
temperature at KABQ coming in at 53 degrees. Convection is
persisting through the overnight hours once again, although isolated
at this time. Another active day is expected, aided by a vorticity
max currently pulling E/NE out of southeast AZ per the latest water
vapor satellite imagery. Improving veering wind profiles will make
for increased bulk shear today, increasing the threat of strong to
severe storms. That said, surface based instability will be limited
some by below normal temperatures. Heavy downpours will create
localized flash flooding thanks mainly to already saturated soils.
The existing flash flood watch will be continued and will add the
Lower Rio Grande Valley given earlier heavy rains.

A short-lived warming/drying trend will begin Sunday and continue
into Monday, with PWATs getting cut in more than half. By Monday,
daytime temperatures will be above normal most areas. Sunday and
Monday are looking like breezy to locally windy days thanks in part
to a deepening lee side trough.

Moisture advection is forecast beginning Monday night through the end
of the work week as a complex troughing pattern evolves across the
Intermountain West and a dominant ridge of high pressure strengthens
to our east. The addition of a backdoor cold front at some point
between Tuesday and Thursday will be an added ingredient for forcing
convection. Timing of the backdoor front is a low confidence forecast
at this time, with the 00Z ECMWF bringing it down Tuesday and the 00Z
GFS holding-off until Thursday. The 00Z operational model runs begin
to depart significantly with the handling of the trough toward the
end of the work week, so forecast confidence really drops off quickly
from mid to late week.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Weather prediction models continue to trend wetter for today as low
level moisture hangs tough and an upper level short-wave trough
moves up from the southwest. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop once again through the day. Movement will
be from the west-southwest to east-northeast at around 30 mph.
Showers and storms will continue well into the overnight hours,
primarily over central and eastern areas of the state.

Brisk west to southwest winds remain on track for Sunday, finally
scouring out low level moisture areawide. The drying trend continues
into Monday, with the exception of a few storms developing along the
dryline near the TX border. Forecast models are now stronger with a
lee side trough/low and the resulting southwest winds for Monday.
Breezy to locally windy conditons setting up across much of the
state Monday afternoon.

Winds drop off across western and central NM Tuesday with brisk
south to southeast winds continuing across the eastern plains. Gulf
moisture is forecast to surge nwwd into eastern NM Tuesday night.
GFS and ECMWF remain at odds as to how the moisture moves into the
state but both sensible weather forecasts remain similar. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms are progged to break out across the
eastern plains Tuesday night, spreading westward into central and
western NM Wednesday. The active weather is forecast to continue
through Thursday night. GFS and ECWMF differ on how to handle the
two upper level closed lows dancing with one another over/near the
PACNW. ECMWF dries things out Friday but the GFS keeps things wet
through next weekend, bringing one of the upper lows over the
southwest U.S.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for the following zones...
NMZ503-504-506-507-510>521-527>529.

&&

11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
416 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017

NMZ501>540-011100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
416 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect into this evening for portions of
central and northern New Mexico.

A few strong to severe storms are possible later this afternoon,
mainly between the Continental Divide and the Rio Grande Valley.
Large hail is the primary threat, with potential for significant hail
accumulation on roadways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A few severe storms are possible across the Eastern Plains Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

Locally heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding are possible by
the end of the work week across much of central and western New
Mexico.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

11

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
727 AM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FARMINGTON              36.75N 108.19W
09/29/2017                   SAN JUAN           NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOOD ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 64 AT BROWNING STREET.

0254 PM     HAIL             ACOMA PUEBLO            34.90N 107.58W
09/29/2017  M0.88 INCH       CIBOLA             NM   PUBLIC

0254 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ACOMA PUEBLO            34.90N 107.58W
09/29/2017                   CIBOLA             NM   PUBLIC

0318 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ACOMA PUEBLO            34.90N 107.58W
09/29/2017                   CIBOLA             NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0530 PM     HAIL             VEGUITA                 34.52N 106.77W
09/29/2017  M1.75 INCH       SOCORRO            NM   PUBLIC

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VEGUITA                 34.52N 106.77W
09/29/2017                   SOCORRO            NM   PUBLIC

0646 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BELEN                   34.66N 106.78W
09/29/2017                   VALENCIA           NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            VALENCIA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER

0812 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S BELEN               34.63N 106.78W
09/29/2017                   VALENCIA           NM   NMDOT

            INTERSTATE 25 SOUTH BOUND CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING
            AT MM 191

0816 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ABEYTAS                 34.47N 106.81W
09/29/2017                   SOCORRO            NM   NMDOT

            NM 116 CLOSED AT MM 4 NORTH BOUND DUE TO FLASH FLOODING

0819 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E BERNARDO            34.42N 106.78W
09/29/2017                   SOCORRO            NM   NMDOT

            NM 304 CLOSED AT MM 7 AND U.S. 60 JUNCTION DUE TO FLASH
            FLOODING.

0822 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BERNARDO                34.42N 106.83W
09/29/2017                   SOCORRO            NM   NMDOT

            ALL LANES OF INTERSTATE 25 CLOSED AT MM 175 DUE TO
            FLASH FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702197 ABQ1702199 ABQ1702200 ABQ1702198 ABQ1702201
ABQ1702202 ABQ1702203 ABQ1702204 ABQ1702205 ABQ1702206 ABQ1702207

GUYER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
757 AM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ501-504-301430-
Northwest Plateau-Northwest Highlands-
757 AM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MCKINLEY...WEST CENTRAL
RIO ARRIBA...NORTHWESTERN SANDOVAL AND SOUTHEASTERN SAN JUAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 830 AM MDT...

At 756 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Pueblo Pintado, or 34 miles northeast of
Crownpoint, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern
McKinley...west central Rio Arriba...northwestern Sandoval and
southeastern San Juan Counties.

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 10775 3612 10785 3636 10752 3603 10741
TIME...MOT...LOC 1356Z 238DEG 23KT 3607 10773

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
816 AM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ502-505-301445-
Chuska Mountains-West Central Plateau-
816 AM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MCKINLEY COUNTY
UNTIL 845 AM MDT...

At 816 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tse Bonito, or 15 miles northwest of Gallup, moving northeast at 20
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rock Springs, Tse Bonito, Window Rock and Yah-Ta-Hey.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 10904 3571 10905 3582 10885 3556 10878
TIME...MOT...LOC 1416Z 245DEG 19KT 3564 10896

Guyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
854 AM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

NMZ508-301530-
Southwest Mountains-
854 AM MDT SAT SEP 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CATRON COUNTY UNTIL
930 AM MDT...

At 854 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Beaverhead, or 23 miles north of Gila Hot Springs,
moving east at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Catron
County.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 10806 3348 10792 3348 10800 3346 10800
      3343 10820 3354 10825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1454Z 249DEG 15KT 3353 10813

Guyer