Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
257 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The main forecast concern will be severe weather potential through
tonight.

As of 2 PM...surface analysis indicated an area of low pressure
over far SW OK...with a warm front extending E/NE from the low to
just south of the OKC metro and then diving back to the SE toward
the Red River...near or south of Hugo. Persistent convection over
NE TX/far SE OK/SW AR has maintained a more stable airmass over
far SE OK. The main concern will be storms that are now developing
over SW OK and where these storms will be relative to the warm
front...where more favorable low level shear profiles...in what is
already a supercell favorable deep layer shear environment...would
enhance tornado potential. Another concern is that storms
developing in the weakly capped warm sector well east of dryline
across N TX could lift up into SE OK and interact with said warm
front as well. Concerns are great enough for tornadoes that a
Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of SE OK. Will have to
monitor progress of warm front and expand the watch as necessary
later. Lift will continue to increase over the region as an upper
trough and embedded PV max lift out into the Plains tonight...with
a negative tilt. Storms will gradually increase over the region
into the evening in response to this forcing. The surface low will
begin to develop to the northeast with time in tandem with the
DCVA. A cold front will trail the low and sweep thru the area late
tonight...ending the severe weather threat. With another round of
storms expected over areas that received between 2 and 3 inches of
rain last night, the inherited Flash Flood Watch was maintained
and expanded slightly to cover all areas that picked up the
heavier rains.

A polar cold front will slide across the region on Sunday, in the
wake of the upper system as it slides by to our north. Another
system will slide across the Plains Monday...emanating from the
persistent upper height weakness in the SW CONUS...weakening with
time as the system shears out. Nevertheless...the system will
provide enough lift on the cool side of the front to bring rain
chances to our area. The best chances will be across the south
closest to the surface front. Our area will be well north of said
surface front by Monday...limiting instability to the point that
only isolated thunder mention will be maintained across the south.

The upper pattern will transition to a deep trough in the
East...with ridging over the Rockies. We're not quite to that time
of year when NW flow brings nighttime tstorm complexes. Tranquil
weather will be the rule thru next weekend.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  76  49  72 /  80  10  10  10
FSM   64  81  54  78 /  90  30  10  10
MLC   61  77  53  74 /  80  20   0   0
BVO   56  74  47  70 /  80  10  10  10
FYV   61  77  49  71 /  90  30  10  10
BYV   62  79  51  73 /  90  30  10  10
MKO   60  77  50  72 /  80  20  10  10
MIO   60  76  48  70 /  90  20  10  10
F10   59  76  51  71 /  80  10   0   0
HHW   64  81  55  79 /  80  30  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ049-053-
     070>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ARZ029.

&&

LONG TERM....30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
446 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
446 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OUT
WEST WILL AID IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT
REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL AS A LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO POTEAU LINE.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO GREATER THAN ONE INCH ON TOP OF
RAINS THAT FELL THIS MORNING WILL HELP TO CREATE POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF WITH THE EXITING FRONT. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS.
BEHIND THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH MORE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
506 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OKZ066-071-292230-
MCINTOSH OK-OKMULGEE OK-
506 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN OKMULGEE AND
NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 505 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HENRYETTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
OKMULGEE...                       HENRYETTA...
MORRIS...                         DEWAR...
SCHULTER...                       GRAYSON...
HOFFMAN...                        BRYANT...
ERAM...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 232 AND
244.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3553 9609 3573 9595 3571 9578 3561 9571
      3560 9571 3531 9598 3538 9598 3538 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 215DEG 35KT 3541 9604

69