Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
126 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301045-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
126 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO POTEAU LINE.
	ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO POTEAU LINE IN
							SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
			WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OUT
WEST WILL AID IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT
REMAINED NEAR THE RED RIVER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL
AS A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO
POTEAU LINE.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO GREATER THAN ONE INCH ON TOP OF
RAINS THAT FELL THIS MORNING WILL HELP TO CREATE POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF WITH THE EXITING FRONT. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS.
BEHIND THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH MORE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
209 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OKZ054-292000-
OSAGE OK-
209 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM CDT...

AT 209 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF HARDY TO 5 MILES WEST OF KAW
CITY. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
SHIDLER...                        GRAINOLA...
FORAKER...                        SOUTHERN KAW LAKE...
WEBB CITY...                      APPERSON...

LAT...LON 3700 9646 3674 9649 3672 9692 3675 9689
      3674 9683 3677 9682 3677 9679 3678 9679
      3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 293DEG 28KT 3698 9690 3676 9697