Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Tulsa, OK

536 
WWUS54 KTSA 292206
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
506 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OKC023-127-292215-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-160429T2215Z/
CHOCTAW OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
506 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW AND SOUTH CENTRAL PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES...

AT 506 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
OLETA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
CORINNE...                        SOBOL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3411 9532 3431 9527 3425 9513 3424 9515
      3416 9515 3416 9516 3409 9516 3407 9521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 214DEG 36KT 3414 9522 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
257 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The main forecast concern will be severe weather potential through
tonight.

As of 2 PM...surface analysis indicated an area of low pressure
over far SW OK...with a warm front extending E/NE from the low to
just south of the OKC metro and then diving back to the SE toward
the Red River...near or south of Hugo. Persistent convection over
NE TX/far SE OK/SW AR has maintained a more stable airmass over
far SE OK. The main concern will be storms that are now developing
over SW OK and where these storms will be relative to the warm
front...where more favorable low level shear profiles...in what is
already a supercell favorable deep layer shear environment...would
enhance tornado potential. Another concern is that storms
developing in the weakly capped warm sector well east of dryline
across N TX could lift up into SE OK and interact with said warm
front as well. Concerns are great enough for tornadoes that a
Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of SE OK. Will have to
monitor progress of warm front and expand the watch as necessary
later. Lift will continue to increase over the region as an upper
trough and embedded PV max lift out into the Plains tonight...with
a negative tilt. Storms will gradually increase over the region
into the evening in response to this forcing. The surface low will
begin to develop to the northeast with time in tandem with the
DCVA. A cold front will trail the low and sweep thru the area late
tonight...ending the severe weather threat. With another round of
storms expected over areas that received between 2 and 3 inches of
rain last night, the inherited Flash Flood Watch was maintained
and expanded slightly to cover all areas that picked up the
heavier rains.

A polar cold front will slide across the region on Sunday, in the
wake of the upper system as it slides by to our north. Another
system will slide across the Plains Monday...emanating from the
persistent upper height weakness in the SW CONUS...weakening with
time as the system shears out. Nevertheless...the system will
provide enough lift on the cool side of the front to bring rain
chances to our area. The best chances will be across the south
closest to the surface front. Our area will be well north of said
surface front by Monday...limiting instability to the point that
only isolated thunder mention will be maintained across the south.

The upper pattern will transition to a deep trough in the
East...with ridging over the Rockies. We're not quite to that time
of year when NW flow brings nighttime tstorm complexes. Tranquil
weather will be the rule thru next weekend.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  76  49  72 /  80  10  10  10
FSM   64  81  54  78 /  90  30  10  10
MLC   61  77  53  74 /  80  20   0   0
BVO   56  74  47  70 /  80  10  10  10
FYV   61  77  49  71 /  90  30  10  10
BYV   62  79  51  73 /  90  30  10  10
MKO   60  77  50  72 /  80  20  10  10
MIO   60  76  48  70 /  90  20  10  10
F10   59  76  51  71 /  80  10   0   0
HHW   64  81  55  79 /  80  30  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ049-053-
     070>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ARZ029.

&&

LONG TERM....30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
446 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
446 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OUT
WEST WILL AID IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT
REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL AS A LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO POTEAU LINE.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO GREATER THAN ONE INCH ON TOP OF
RAINS THAT FELL THIS MORNING WILL HELP TO CREATE POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF WITH THE EXITING FRONT. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS.
BEHIND THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH MORE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
412 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OKZ049-053-292145-
PUSHMATAHA OK-CHOCTAW OK-
412 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW AND
SOUTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 412 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FORT TOWSON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
FORT TOWSON...                    SAWYER...
RAYMOND GARY STATE PARK...        SOBOL...
CORINNE...                        SWINK...
HUSKEY...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3399 9538 3445 9519 3439 9504 3425 9505
      3424 9515 3395 9516 3394 9516 3396 9523
      3393 9525
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 204DEG 38KT 3402 9525

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
413 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             FORT SMITH              35.39N 94.40W
04/29/2016  E1.75 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL OCCURRED ON SOUTH SIDE OF FORT SMITH

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             VAN BUREN               35.44N 94.35W
04/29/2016  E1.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JBM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
431 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             ALMA                    35.48N 94.22W
04/29/2016  E1.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
443 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OKZ054-060-061-292215-
ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-OSAGE OK-
443 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL ROGERS...
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 442 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
SAND SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER TULSA MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
TULSA...                          SAND SPRINGS...
OWASSO...                         SKIATOOK...
CATOOSA...                        COLLINSVILLE...
SPERRY...                         TURLEY...
GRAY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 217 AND 233.

LAT...LON 3634 9568 3603 9588 3605 9603 3607 9603
      3608 9621 3608 9624 3645 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 214DEG 36KT 3610 9610

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
444 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
04/29/2016  E0.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PBS