Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Topeka, KS

871 
WWUS53 KTOP 270252
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
952 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSC003-059-270300-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-160427T0300Z/
FRANKLIN-ANDERSON-
952 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES...

AT 951 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR WELLSVILLE TO NEAR GREELEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED PING PONG BALL SIZE
         HAIL JUST EAST OF OTTAWA AT 947 PM . 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WELLSVILLE AND RANTOUL. 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 186 AND 198.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3824 9511 3858 9523 3866 9527 3874 9514
      3874 9506 3867 9507 3826 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 240DEG 32KT 3869 9516 3834 9509 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

GDP

537 
WWUS53 KTOP 270302
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1002 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSC003-059-270311-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-160427T0300Z/
FRANKLIN-ANDERSON-
1002 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN FRANKLIN AND
NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH OTHER THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3824 9511 3858 9523 3866 9527 3874 9514
      3874 9506 3867 9507 3826 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 242DEG 34KT 3869 9516 3834 9509 

$$

GDP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
635 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

This afternoon an outflow boundary extended  from south of Iola, KS
and extended northwest to Salina, then to the surface low near
Elsworth, KS. MLCAPES along and south of the outflow boundary were
approaching 4000 J/KG. Thunderstorms were beginning to develop north
of the boundary and may not be surface based at this time but the
MLCAPE continues to increase north of the OFB, so I expect these
storms to become surface based. There was a pacific front extending
from the surface low, south-southwest into northwest OK. A dryline
extended from northwest OK, due south along the the OK/TX PNHDL
border. A couple of supercell thunderstorms have developed southwest
of OK, south-southwest into north central OK. These storms will move
north-northeast into south central KS. Additional supercells will
develop along the pacific front across central KS and along the OFB.
Any discrete supercell late this afternoon and evening will cause
large hail, damaging wind gusts and possible tornadoes.

The Upper low across eastern AZ and western NM will lift northeast
into western KS Tonight. The large scale ascent ahead of the trough
will cause additional widespread thunderstorms which will evolve into
a squall line or MCS through the night across the CWA. Expect the
hazards to become more of a damaging wind and large hail. I cannot
rule out some brief meso vortices tornadoes within the squall
line. Flash flooding may become a problem as individual storm
updrafts may train over the same area.

Wednesday, The severe thunderstorms should move out of the area
during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Thunderstorms may
redevelop Wednesday afternoon hours behind the front, due to the
cold core upper low moving just north of the CWA. Some of the storms
during the afternoon may be strong and produce hail and gusty winds.
Highs Wednesday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

For the mid and extended range forecasts, a wet pattern will likely
continue heading into Friday and the weekend after a lull in
activity on Thursday as the upper low becomes barotropic over the
Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley and begins to fill and
eventually transition into an open wave. Shortwave ridging advects
over the region on Thursday daytime frame into Friday keeping
northeastern KS dry.  Yet another upper low in a series of upper
level lows digs into the Southern Rockies late Friday and kick out a
lead shortwave into the Central Plains.  This will initially help to
begin to draw moisture back north again.  However, the associated
upper level low doesn't really deepen until Saturday which will
bring increased rain and thunderstorm chances.  Severe activity
could be possible Saturday afternoon into the evening as stronger
moisture advection increases along with favorable 0-6km shear of
around 50kts and increasing instability with steep mid level lapse
rates in the range of 7 to 8 C/km overlay the area.  Into the day
Sunday, this upper low will go though its complete evolution much
like the current upper low and transition into an open wave as it
advects over the Ohio Valley.  Hard to believe, but yet another
upper low is currently progged to be over the Desert Southwest late
in the period.  This could bring several minor shortwaves that cause
mainly rain as significant severe parameters right now don't appear
to be in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

Timing of precip is the main challenge. Trends would suggest
several hours of potential storms with IFR impacts in rain the
main concerns. Upper system pushing east should bring
downward/drying trends toward 10Z however.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...65

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
859 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-280200-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
859 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 335 INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AND POSE A FLASH FLOOD AND RIVER FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER FAR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS...WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

FLOODING OF SOME CREEKS AND RIVERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN MAINLY EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
UNTIL AROUND 2 AM.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
846 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E DOVER               38.96N 95.90W
04/26/2016  M4.15 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
847 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     FLOOD            WILLIAMSTOWN            39.06N 95.33W
04/26/2016                   JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 24 JUST EAST OF WILLIAMSTOWN IS CLOSED DUE TO
            WATER OVER THE ROAD. RELAYED FROM THE EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
855 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             7 W BURLINGTON          38.19N 95.87W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       COFFEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
858 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW DOVER              38.93N 95.98W
04/26/2016  E4.95 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   PUBLIC

            AS OF 830PM

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
906 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     TSTM WND GST     COFFEY COUNTY AIRPORT   38.30N 95.73W
04/26/2016  M61 MPH          COFFEY             KS   AWOS

&&

PHILLIPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
912 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 PM     HAIL             8 SW WILLIAMSBURG       38.40N 95.57W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       COFFEY             KS   STORM CHASER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH ESTIMATED ON
            I-35.

&&

COMITT