Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
635 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

This afternoon an outflow boundary extended  from south of Iola, KS
and extended northwest to Salina, then to the surface low near
Elsworth, KS. MLCAPES along and south of the outflow boundary were
approaching 4000 J/KG. Thunderstorms were beginning to develop north
of the boundary and may not be surface based at this time but the
MLCAPE continues to increase north of the OFB, so I expect these
storms to become surface based. There was a pacific front extending
from the surface low, south-southwest into northwest OK. A dryline
extended from northwest OK, due south along the the OK/TX PNHDL
border. A couple of supercell thunderstorms have developed southwest
of OK, south-southwest into north central OK. These storms will move
north-northeast into south central KS. Additional supercells will
develop along the pacific front across central KS and along the OFB.
Any discrete supercell late this afternoon and evening will cause
large hail, damaging wind gusts and possible tornadoes.

The Upper low across eastern AZ and western NM will lift northeast
into western KS Tonight. The large scale ascent ahead of the trough
will cause additional widespread thunderstorms which will evolve into
a squall line or MCS through the night across the CWA. Expect the
hazards to become more of a damaging wind and large hail. I cannot
rule out some brief meso vortices tornadoes within the squall
line. Flash flooding may become a problem as individual storm
updrafts may train over the same area.

Wednesday, The severe thunderstorms should move out of the area
during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Thunderstorms may
redevelop Wednesday afternoon hours behind the front, due to the
cold core upper low moving just north of the CWA. Some of the storms
during the afternoon may be strong and produce hail and gusty winds.
Highs Wednesday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

For the mid and extended range forecasts, a wet pattern will likely
continue heading into Friday and the weekend after a lull in
activity on Thursday as the upper low becomes barotropic over the
Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley and begins to fill and
eventually transition into an open wave. Shortwave ridging advects
over the region on Thursday daytime frame into Friday keeping
northeastern KS dry.  Yet another upper low in a series of upper
level lows digs into the Southern Rockies late Friday and kick out a
lead shortwave into the Central Plains.  This will initially help to
begin to draw moisture back north again.  However, the associated
upper level low doesn't really deepen until Saturday which will
bring increased rain and thunderstorm chances.  Severe activity
could be possible Saturday afternoon into the evening as stronger
moisture advection increases along with favorable 0-6km shear of
around 50kts and increasing instability with steep mid level lapse
rates in the range of 7 to 8 C/km overlay the area.  Into the day
Sunday, this upper low will go though its complete evolution much
like the current upper low and transition into an open wave as it
advects over the Ohio Valley.  Hard to believe, but yet another
upper low is currently progged to be over the Desert Southwest late
in the period.  This could bring several minor shortwaves that cause
mainly rain as significant severe parameters right now don't appear
to be in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

Timing of precip is the main challenge. Trends would suggest
several hours of potential storms with IFR impacts in rain the
main concerns. Upper system pushing east should bring
downward/drying trends toward 10Z however.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...65

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
339 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
339 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME SEVERE...AND THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL
BIGGER THAN BASEBALLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL
AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER FAR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS...WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
703 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     HAIL             7 NW REPUBLIC           39.99N 97.92W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
709 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSE MANHATTAN         39.13N 96.54W
04/26/2016                   RILEY              KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            PARTS OF K18 CLOSED BETWEEN FAIRMONT AND ZEANDALE

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
711 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSW MANHATTAN         39.13N 96.60W
04/26/2016                   RILEY              KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            54TH AND EUREKA CLOSED JUST NORTH OF THE MANHATTAN
            AIRPORT DUE TO FLOODED ROADWAY.

&&

JW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
713 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ026-040-055-056-270045-
FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-OSAGE-DOUGLAS-
713 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...
NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...DOUGLAS AND SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL
745 PM CDT...

AT 713 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM LECOMPTON TO NEAR GLOBE TO NEAR MELVERN.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAWRENCE...OSAGE CITY...OVERBROOK...LYNDON...CENTROPOLIS...PERRY...POMONA...
LECOMPTON...CLINTON...QUENEMO...LONE STAR...PLEASANT GROVE...WILLIAMSTOWN...
GLOBE...CLINTON LAKE AND POMONA LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 189 AND 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3882 9521 3853 9543 3852 9587 3877 9573
      3887 9553 3887 9550 3909 9549 3909 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 257DEG 20KT 3905 9537 3878 9544 3854 9568

GDP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
715 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S JUNCTION CITY       38.97N 96.83W
04/26/2016                   GEARY              KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CREEKS FLOODING NEAR K57 HAD DEBRIS OVER ROADWAY...BUT IS
            NOW RECEEDING

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
730 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OSAGE CITY              38.63N 95.83W
04/26/2016                   OSAGE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT IN OSAGE CITY.
            STREETS UNDER WATER.

&&

COMITT