Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Topeka, KS

051 
WWUS53 KTOP 270212
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
912 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSC031-139-270245-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-160427T0245Z/
COFFEY-OSAGE-
912 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN COFFEY AND SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 910 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WAVERLY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED 61 MPH WINDS AT THE
         COFFEY COUNTY AIRPORT AT 858 PM. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAVERLY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 154 AND 167.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3856 9551 3845 9551 3818 9552 3815 9571
      3841 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 234DEG 40KT 3835 9561 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GDP

379 
WWUS53 KTOP 270225
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
925 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSC031-139-270235-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-160427T0245Z/
COFFEY-OSAGE-
925 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN COFFEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3856 9551 3845 9551 3818 9552 3815 9571
      3841 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 226DEG 33KT 3845 9548 

$$

GDP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
635 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

This afternoon an outflow boundary extended  from south of Iola, KS
and extended northwest to Salina, then to the surface low near
Elsworth, KS. MLCAPES along and south of the outflow boundary were
approaching 4000 J/KG. Thunderstorms were beginning to develop north
of the boundary and may not be surface based at this time but the
MLCAPE continues to increase north of the OFB, so I expect these
storms to become surface based. There was a pacific front extending
from the surface low, south-southwest into northwest OK. A dryline
extended from northwest OK, due south along the the OK/TX PNHDL
border. A couple of supercell thunderstorms have developed southwest
of OK, south-southwest into north central OK. These storms will move
north-northeast into south central KS. Additional supercells will
develop along the pacific front across central KS and along the OFB.
Any discrete supercell late this afternoon and evening will cause
large hail, damaging wind gusts and possible tornadoes.

The Upper low across eastern AZ and western NM will lift northeast
into western KS Tonight. The large scale ascent ahead of the trough
will cause additional widespread thunderstorms which will evolve into
a squall line or MCS through the night across the CWA. Expect the
hazards to become more of a damaging wind and large hail. I cannot
rule out some brief meso vortices tornadoes within the squall
line. Flash flooding may become a problem as individual storm
updrafts may train over the same area.

Wednesday, The severe thunderstorms should move out of the area
during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Thunderstorms may
redevelop Wednesday afternoon hours behind the front, due to the
cold core upper low moving just north of the CWA. Some of the storms
during the afternoon may be strong and produce hail and gusty winds.
Highs Wednesday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

For the mid and extended range forecasts, a wet pattern will likely
continue heading into Friday and the weekend after a lull in
activity on Thursday as the upper low becomes barotropic over the
Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley and begins to fill and
eventually transition into an open wave. Shortwave ridging advects
over the region on Thursday daytime frame into Friday keeping
northeastern KS dry.  Yet another upper low in a series of upper
level lows digs into the Southern Rockies late Friday and kick out a
lead shortwave into the Central Plains.  This will initially help to
begin to draw moisture back north again.  However, the associated
upper level low doesn't really deepen until Saturday which will
bring increased rain and thunderstorm chances.  Severe activity
could be possible Saturday afternoon into the evening as stronger
moisture advection increases along with favorable 0-6km shear of
around 50kts and increasing instability with steep mid level lapse
rates in the range of 7 to 8 C/km overlay the area.  Into the day
Sunday, this upper low will go though its complete evolution much
like the current upper low and transition into an open wave as it
advects over the Ohio Valley.  Hard to believe, but yet another
upper low is currently progged to be over the Desert Southwest late
in the period.  This could bring several minor shortwaves that cause
mainly rain as significant severe parameters right now don't appear
to be in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

Timing of precip is the main challenge. Trends would suggest
several hours of potential storms with IFR impacts in rain the
main concerns. Upper system pushing east should bring
downward/drying trends toward 10Z however.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...65

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
339 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
339 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME SEVERE...AND THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL
BIGGER THAN BASEBALLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL
AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER FAR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS...WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
715 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S JUNCTION CITY       38.97N 96.83W
04/26/2016                   GEARY              KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CREEKS FLOODING NEAR K57 HAD DEBRIS OVER ROADWAY...BUT IS
            NOW RECEEDING

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
730 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OSAGE CITY              38.63N 95.83W
04/26/2016                   OSAGE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT IN OSAGE CITY.
            STREETS UNDER WATER.

&&

COMITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
807 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             OLPE                    38.26N 96.17W
04/26/2016  E1.75 INCH       LYON               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
846 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E DOVER               38.96N 95.90W
04/26/2016  M4.15 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
847 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     FLOOD            WILLIAMSTOWN            39.06N 95.33W
04/26/2016                   JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 24 JUST EAST OF WILLIAMSTOWN IS CLOSED DUE TO
            WATER OVER THE ROAD. RELAYED FROM THE EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
855 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             7 W BURLINGTON          38.19N 95.87W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       COFFEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BAERG