Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
134 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Earlier this morning, elevated storms remained to the north along
the KS/NE boarder while a persistent line of showers and
thunderstorms moved just southeast of the forecast area.  Clouds
have scattered in northeast Kansas allowing for sufficient heating
to occur this afternoon with highs expected to reach into the upper
70s and dewpoints rising into the mid and high 60s. The surface low
has been moving northeast steadily ahead of the quickly moving upper
level wave.  Storms are forecast to develop near the triple point
late this afternoon as the front moves through the area and into the
area of sufficient cloud clearing where the greatest destabilization
has occurred.  CAPE near 2000 J/kg and shear on the order of 40
knots will fuel the severe potential for storms. Initial development
in the late afternoon may start as discrete in nature with
supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and even
a tornado.  Models continue to show pockets of higher helicity ahead
of this front that will make tornadic development possible as storms
first form.  As development continues, a linear line of storms is
likely to form shifting the greatest threats to damaging winds,
although hail will still be possible.  The front will move through
northeast Kansas by midnight possibly undercutting ongoing storms
which would then end the severe potential as well. Surface high
pressure behind the front will bring precipitation to an end by
early morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Area of high pressure expands eastward through the day on Friday as
the upper trough exits eastward. Winds quickly weaken at the sfc
behind the cold front overnight, setting up the potential for patchy
frost across north central Kansas. Main uncertainty is with the
temp spread with lows generally in the 36 to 39 range. Will go ahead
and mention patchy frost in the forecast, however will forgo a frost
advisory at this time. Highs tomorrow are on track to be the coolest
day of the forecast with readings in the lower to middle 60s.

Sfc winds shift around towards the south for the weekend with a
gradual warmup expected throughout the weekend from the upper 60s to
lower 70s by Sunday. Next system to watch approaches from the
southwest Monday mainly over central Kansas, to much of the CWA on
Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF are doing a decent job of handling
the track even though the forcing and available moisture is limited.
A series of prominent upper lows over the northern provinces of
Canada to the Pacific NW coastline will eject a series of weaker
waves into the region. Off and on chances for isolated thunder
cannot be ruled out with temps in the near normal range for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

VFR conditions are likely for the majority of the period.  A line of
storms is forecast to develop this afternoon and move eastward
through the area into the late evening hours.  Went with hires
models on timing with storms moving through MHK between 22-01Z, and
TOP/FOE from 00-03Z, although this timing will need to continue to
be monitored. Reduced ceilings and visibilities are likely with this
activity. Gusty winds will continue briefly behind storms before
high pressure moves in and winds shift from the north and gusts
end at 12Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Heller

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1249 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071800-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1249 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO ARE EXPECTED. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A LINE
DURING THE EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. MINOR FLOODING IN THE POTTAWATOMIE CREEK BASIN IS POSSIBLE
IF FORECAST ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OCCURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
448 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     TORNADO          4 SSE CLAY CENTER       39.32N 97.10W
10/06/2016                   CLAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS TORNADO APPROX 1/4 MILE WIDE, WAS BECOMING
            RAIN-WRAPPED

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
501 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TORNADO          3 SSE GREEN             39.39N 96.98W
10/06/2016                   CLAY               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED VIA SHERIFFS OFFICE GETTING READY TO CROSS
            HIGHWAY 24

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
523 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             7 S WATERVILLE          39.59N 96.75W
10/06/2016  E0.75 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   STORM CHASER

&&

KSANDERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ035>037-062300-
DICKINSON-MORRIS-GEARY-
524 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORRIS...SOUTHERN
GEARY AND EASTERN DICKINSON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 524 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR JUNCTION CITY TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TAMPA. MOVEMENT WAS EAST-NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JUNCTION CITY...HERINGTON...GRANDVIEW PLAZA...CHAPMAN...ENTERPRISE...
WHITE CITY...HOPE...WOODBINE AND LATIMER.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 285 AND 300.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3903 9701 3903 9651 3855 9693 3861 9693
      3861 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 243DEG 24KT 3905 9684 3861 9722

GARGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
535 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ABILENE                 38.92N 97.21W
10/06/2016                   DICKINSON          KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS POWERLINES DOWN

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
541 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             3 W LATIMER             38.74N 96.91W
10/06/2016  U1.00 INCH       MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

NWS TOPEKA KS
IRIS SYSTEM