Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Topeka, KS

701 
WWUS53 KTOP 062112
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
412 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSC157-201-062130-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0256.000000T0000Z-161006T2130Z/
WASHINGTON-REPUBLIC-
412 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN REPUBLIC COUNTIES...

AT 412 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NARKA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUNDEN...NARKA AND MAHASKA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 4000 9725 3987 9740 3988 9754 4000 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 207DEG 38KT 3997 9739 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

826 
WWUS53 KTOP 062129
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
429 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSC157-201-062139-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0256.000000T0000Z-161006T2130Z/
WASHINGTON-REPUBLIC-
429 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEASTERN REPUBLIC COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 4000 9725 3987 9740 3988 9754 4000 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 207DEG 38KT 4011 9730 

$$

SANDERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
134 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Earlier this morning, elevated storms remained to the north along
the KS/NE boarder while a persistent line of showers and
thunderstorms moved just southeast of the forecast area.  Clouds
have scattered in northeast Kansas allowing for sufficient heating
to occur this afternoon with highs expected to reach into the upper
70s and dewpoints rising into the mid and high 60s. The surface low
has been moving northeast steadily ahead of the quickly moving upper
level wave.  Storms are forecast to develop near the triple point
late this afternoon as the front moves through the area and into the
area of sufficient cloud clearing where the greatest destabilization
has occurred.  CAPE near 2000 J/kg and shear on the order of 40
knots will fuel the severe potential for storms. Initial development
in the late afternoon may start as discrete in nature with
supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and even
a tornado.  Models continue to show pockets of higher helicity ahead
of this front that will make tornadic development possible as storms
first form.  As development continues, a linear line of storms is
likely to form shifting the greatest threats to damaging winds,
although hail will still be possible.  The front will move through
northeast Kansas by midnight possibly undercutting ongoing storms
which would then end the severe potential as well. Surface high
pressure behind the front will bring precipitation to an end by
early morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Area of high pressure expands eastward through the day on Friday as
the upper trough exits eastward. Winds quickly weaken at the sfc
behind the cold front overnight, setting up the potential for patchy
frost across north central Kansas. Main uncertainty is with the
temp spread with lows generally in the 36 to 39 range. Will go ahead
and mention patchy frost in the forecast, however will forgo a frost
advisory at this time. Highs tomorrow are on track to be the coolest
day of the forecast with readings in the lower to middle 60s.

Sfc winds shift around towards the south for the weekend with a
gradual warmup expected throughout the weekend from the upper 60s to
lower 70s by Sunday. Next system to watch approaches from the
southwest Monday mainly over central Kansas, to much of the CWA on
Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF are doing a decent job of handling
the track even though the forcing and available moisture is limited.
A series of prominent upper lows over the northern provinces of
Canada to the Pacific NW coastline will eject a series of weaker
waves into the region. Off and on chances for isolated thunder
cannot be ruled out with temps in the near normal range for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

VFR conditions are likely for the majority of the period.  A line of
storms is forecast to develop this afternoon and move eastward
through the area into the late evening hours.  Went with hires
models on timing with storms moving through MHK between 22-01Z, and
TOP/FOE from 00-03Z, although this timing will need to continue to
be monitored. Reduced ceilings and visibilities are likely with this
activity. Gusty winds will continue briefly behind storms before
high pressure moves in and winds shift from the north and gusts
end at 12Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Heller

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1249 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071800-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1249 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO ARE EXPECTED. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A LINE
DURING THE EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. MINOR FLOODING IN THE POTTAWATOMIE CREEK BASIN IS POSSIBLE
IF FORECAST ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OCCURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1039 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TORNADO          2 WNW GREEN             39.44N 97.04W
10/04/2016                   CLAY               KS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            AN EF1 TORNADO TRACKED NORTHWEST OF GREEN CAUSING MINOR
            DAMAGE TO A HOUSE AND TREES. THE PATH LENGTH WAS ROUGHLY
            5 MILES AND ESTIMATED PEAK WIND WAS 90 MPH. DELAYED
            REPORT.

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
348 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             4 SSW CLYDE             39.54N 97.43W
10/06/2016  E1.00 INCH       CLOUD              KS   PUBLIC

&&

EH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
359 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     HAIL             CLIFTON                 39.57N 97.28W
10/06/2016  E2.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
400 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             MILTONVALE              39.35N 97.45W
10/06/2016  E0.88 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
402 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     HAIL             W CLIFTON               39.57N 97.28W
10/06/2016  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP