River Flood Warning 77, NWS Topeka, KS

626 
WGUS83 KTOP 070111
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
810 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas...

  Pottawatomie Creek near Scipio  affecting Anderson and Franklin 
  Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC003-059-070910-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0077.000000T0000Z-161008T1402Z/
/SIPK1.2.ER.161007T0147Z.161007T1200Z.161008T0202Z.NO/
810 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pottawatomie Creek near Scipio .
* until Saturday morning.
* At  7:46 PM Thursday the stage was 22.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 25.5 feet by Friday morning.The river will fall below 
  flood stage by Friday before midnight.
* Impact...At 25.6 feet...Farmers fields to the south of the creek 
  near Ohio Road floods.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 9527 3844 9512 3841 9507 3831 9525




$$

871 
WGUS83 KTOP 070637
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
137 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas...

  Pottawatomie Creek near Scipio  affecting Anderson and Franklin 
  Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC003-059-071437-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0077.000000T0000Z-161008T0524Z/
/SIPK1.1.ER.161007T0802Z.161007T1200Z.161007T1724Z.NO/
137 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pottawatomie Creek near Scipio .
* until late tonight.
* At  1:01 AM Friday the stage was 22.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early this morning and 
  continue to rise to near 23.9 feet by this morning.The river will 
  fall below flood stage by this afternoon.
* Impact...At 23.6 feet...Farmers field to the north of the creek near
  Ohio Road floods.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 9527 3844 9512 3841 9507 3831 9525




$$

303 
WGUS83 KTOP 071318
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
818 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following streams in 
Kansas...

  Pottawatomie Creek near Scipio  affecting Anderson and Franklin 
  Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC003-059-071348-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FL.W.0077.000000T0000Z-161008T0524Z/
/SIPK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
818 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Pottawatomie Creek near Scipio .
* At  8:00 AM Friday the stage was 21.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 22.6 feet. The 
  river will fall to 13.1 feet by .
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...The creek begins to flow out of its banks 
  near Ohio Road.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 9527 3844 9512 3841 9507 3831 9525




$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1220 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Elevated thunderstorms continue to fire from southeast Kansas across
east central Kansas into west central Missouri this morning at 08Z.
Low level jet of 40 to 50 kts from the southwest will continue
through the morning hours, backing with the approach of the upper
trough. Dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s were common south of the
surface trough from northwest Missouri into southwest Oklahoma.
Energy ejecting out of the base of the upper trough early this
morning will continue to develop convection across western Oklahoma
with the cells moving northeast into southern and east central
Kansas. In addition the above mentioned isentropic lift will also
lead to development to the north of the surface trough as the winds
back to the south this morning. Have increase precipitation chances
across the northern counties of north central and northeast Kansas
after sunrise. Morning convection should come to an end in the east
by early afternoon. Surface low pressure will develop along the
front in southwest Kansas then move northeast along the boundary and
into eastern Nebraska by 00Z Friday. Shear and instability will
increase this afternoon ahead of the front with 40 to 50kts of
effective shear and CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. In addition forecast
soundings show ample storms relative helicity as seen in the
hodographs for a threat of tornadoes. Storms firing along and ahead
the boundary during the mid to late afternoon will likely be
discrete supercells which by evening are expected to congeal into a
more linear mode and move southeast across the forecast area through
the evening and overnight hours. Main hazards will be large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Most of the convection should
move out of the area after 06Z. Some heavy rainfall will be possible
across east central Kansas within the moisture axis. High
temperatures today will vary from the mid 70s near the Nebraska
border to the lower 80s near central Kansas where more sunshine is
expected. Lows tonight will cool into the upper 30s in north central
Kansas to the upper 40s southeast of Interstate 35.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

By Friday morning, the cold front will have shifted well east of the
CWA with surface high pressure quickly surging into the area. With
northerly winds in place, much cooler conditions are expected Friday
with afternoon high temperatures only reaching into the low/mid 60s.
The center of the surface high will track over the area Friday night
into Saturday morning, with the clear skies resulting in decent
radiational cooling overnight. As a result, expect overnight low
temperatures to plunge into the upper 30s to low 40s.  Cannot rule
out the potential for cooler conditions in low-lying areas and any
moisture pooling may result in the development of some patchy frost.

Dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the weekend
with a gradual warming trend as winds shift to the south with the
surface high sliding east of the area.  With these conditions in
place, expect high temperatures over the weekend to reach into the
upper 60s to mid 70s. High temperatures through the middle of next
week will remain in the low/mid 70s with lows in the upper 40s to
low 50s as winds stay out of the south. Models continue to show an
embedded shortwave developing and lifting northeastward into the
area on Monday with a second weak shortwave skimming nearby on
Tuesday, so these waves may bring some scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Have only slight chance PoPs in the
forecast at this time due to the low confidence in the timing,
tracking, and strength of these waves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

VFR conditions are likely for the majority of the period.  A line of
storms is forecast to develop this afternoon and move eastward
through the area into the late evening hours.  Went with hires
models on timing with storms moving through MHK between 22-01Z, and
TOP/FOE from 00-03Z, although this timing will need to continue to
be monitored. Reduced ceilings and visibilities are likely with this
activity. Gusty winds will continue briefly behind storms before
high pressure moves in and winds shift from the north and gusts
end at 12Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Heller

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
952 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071500-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
952 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARD.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO ARE EXPECTED. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A LINE
DURING THE EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. MINOR FLOODING IN THE POTTAWATOMIE CREEK BASIN IS POSSIBLE
IF FORECAST ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OCCURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
726 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 N WESTPHALIA          38.25N 95.49W
10/06/2016  M2.25 INCH       ANDERSON           KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1039 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TORNADO          2 WNW GREEN             39.44N 97.04W
10/04/2016                   CLAY               KS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            AN EF1 TORNADO TRACKED NORTHWEST OF GREEN CAUSING MINOR
            DAMAGE TO A HOUSE AND TREES. THE PATH LENGTH WAS ROUGHLY
            5 MILES AND ESTIMATED PEAK WIND WAS 90 MPH. DELAYED
            REPORT.

&&

KSANDERS