Alert archive / Illinois / Tornado Watches in 2016
Tornado Watch 44
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 15, 2016, 3:31 PM CDT for 46 counties in Illinois; 14 counties in Iowa; 11 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 15, 2016, 3:31 PM CDT (20:31 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 15, 2016, 10:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 3 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 71 counties
Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Henry County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Lee County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Cass County, IL, Christian County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Greene County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, Knox County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Lee County, IL, Livingston County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Ogle County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Pike County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Stark County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Audrain County, MO, Clark County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Marion County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Pike County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO
The radar
The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 70%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 50%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 95%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 50%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
46 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 4:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LSX | Adams | 35 min |
| Mar 15, 4:56 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DVN | Hancock | 64 min |
| Mar 15, 5:01 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LSX | Knox, Lewis | 44 min |
| Mar 15, 5:09 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DVN | Hancock | 66 min |
| Mar 15, 5:27 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DVN | Hancock | 48 min |
| Mar 15, 5:58 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DVN | Des Moines, Henry, Louisa, Washington | 47 min |
| Mar 15, 6:03 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DVN | Hancock, Henderson, McDonough, Warren | 57 min |
| Mar 15, 6:05 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DVN | Hancock, Henderson | 31 min |
| Mar 15, 6:06 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DVN | Hancock, McDonough | 54 min |
| Mar 15, 6:26 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DVN | Mercer, Rock Island | 49 min |
| Mar 15, 6:29 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DVN | McDonough, Warren | 33 min |
| Mar 15, 6:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DVN | Clinton, Jackson | 45 min |
| Mar 15, 6:33 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | ILX | Fulton, Knox | 27 min |
| Mar 15, 6:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Morgan, Scott | 32 min |
| Mar 15, 6:50 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DVN | Rock Island, Whiteside | 55 min |
| Mar 15, 7:00 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | ILX | Fulton, Knox | 30 min |
| Mar 15, 7:01 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | ILX | Morgan | 29 min |
| Mar 15, 7:09 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Fulton, Knox, Peoria | 36 min |
| Mar 15, 7:11 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DVN | Henry, Rock Island | 49 min |
| Mar 15, 7:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Cass, Menard, Morgan, Sangamon | 31 min |
| Mar 15, 7:26 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | ILX | Morgan, Sangamon | 34 min |
| Mar 15, 7:28 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Knox | 32 min |
| Mar 15, 7:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DVN | Jo Daviess | 45 min |
| Mar 15, 7:31 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DVN | Rock Island, Whiteside | 44 min |
| Mar 15, 7:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Fulton, Marshall, Peoria, Stark, Tazewell, Woodford | 37 min |
| Mar 15, 7:38 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DVN | Clinton | 37 min |
| Mar 15, 7:43 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | ILX | Peoria | 32 min |
| Mar 15, 7:48 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | ILX | Menard, Sangamon | 27 min |
| Mar 15, 7:58 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Cass, Fulton, Mason, Menard, Tazewell | 47 min |
| Mar 15, 8:00 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DVN | Carroll | 19 min |
| Mar 15, 8:05 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Logan, Sangamon | 25 min |
| Mar 15, 8:05 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | ILX | Peoria, Tazewell, Woodford | 25 min |
| Mar 15, 8:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Peoria, Tazewell, Woodford | 46 min |
| Mar 15, 8:29 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | LaSalle, Livingston | 46 min |
| Mar 15, 8:33 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DVN | Whiteside | 16 min |
| Mar 15, 8:33 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Logan, McLean, Mason, Tazewell, Woodford | 42 min |
| Mar 15, 8:37 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | DeWitt, Logan, McLean | 23 min |
| Mar 15, 8:37 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | LOT | Lee | 38 min |
| Mar 15, 8:39 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Marshall, Woodford | 36 min |
| Mar 15, 8:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DVN | Bureau, Putnam | 35 min |
| Mar 15, 8:58 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DVN | Carroll | 12 min |
| Mar 15, 9:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Grundy, LaSalle, Livingston | 47 min |
| Mar 15, 9:21 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Ford, Iroquois, Livingston | 39 min |
| Mar 15, 9:24 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | LaSalle | 36 min |
| Mar 15, 9:28 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | DeKalb, Lee, Ogle | 32 min |
| Mar 15, 9:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Grundy, Kendall, LaSalle, Will | 36 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 86 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -270 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 736 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 119 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 196 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.2
The text
As transmitted.
355
WWUS20 KWNS 152029
SEL4
SPC WW 152029
IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-160200-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 44
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IOWA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER
NORTHEAST MO AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INTENSE
SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
QUINCY ILLINOIS TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MARSEILLES
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HARTSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Brown, Bureau, Carroll, Cass, Christian and 37 more | 66 min |
| Mar 15, 5:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bond, Clay, Clinton, Crawford, Cumberland, Edwards and 21 more | 88 min |
| Mar 15, 6:29 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bureau, Cass, Fulton, Henry, Knox, Logan and 11 more | 91 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2016Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2016Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.