Alert archive / Illinois / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 44

March 15, 201646 counties in Illinois; 14 counties in Iowa; 11 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 15, 2016, 3:31 PM CDT for 46 counties in Illinois; 14 counties in Iowa; 11 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 15, 2016, 3:31 PM CDT (20:31 UTC)
Expired
Mar 15, 2016, 10:15 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 71 counties

Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Henry County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Lee County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Cass County, IL, Christian County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Greene County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, Knox County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Lee County, IL, Livingston County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Ogle County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Pike County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Stark County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Audrain County, MO, Clark County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Marion County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Pike County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
70%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
50%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
95%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
50%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

46 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 15, 4:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXAdams35 min
Mar 15, 4:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHancock64 min
Mar 15, 5:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXKnox, Lewis44 min
Mar 15, 5:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHancock66 min
Mar 15, 5:27 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNHancock48 min
Mar 15, 5:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNDes Moines, Henry, Louisa, Washington47 min
Mar 15, 6:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHancock, Henderson, McDonough, Warren57 min
Mar 15, 6:05 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNHancock, Henderson31 min
Mar 15, 6:06 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNHancock, McDonough54 min
Mar 15, 6:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNMercer, Rock Island49 min
Mar 15, 6:29 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedDVNMcDonough, Warren33 min
Mar 15, 6:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNClinton, Jackson45 min
Mar 15, 6:33 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedILXFulton, Knox27 min
Mar 15, 6:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXMorgan, Scott32 min
Mar 15, 6:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNRock Island, Whiteside55 min
Mar 15, 7:00 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedILXFulton, Knox30 min
Mar 15, 7:01 PM CDTTornado WarningILXMorgan29 min
Mar 15, 7:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXFulton, Knox, Peoria36 min
Mar 15, 7:11 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNHenry, Rock Island49 min
Mar 15, 7:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXCass, Menard, Morgan, Sangamon31 min
Mar 15, 7:26 PM CDTTornado WarningILXMorgan, Sangamon34 min
Mar 15, 7:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXKnox32 min
Mar 15, 7:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNJo Daviess45 min
Mar 15, 7:31 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedDVNRock Island, Whiteside44 min
Mar 15, 7:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXFulton, Marshall, Peoria, Stark, Tazewell, Woodford37 min
Mar 15, 7:38 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNClinton37 min
Mar 15, 7:43 PM CDTTornado WarningILXPeoria32 min
Mar 15, 7:48 PM CDTTornado WarningILXMenard, Sangamon27 min
Mar 15, 7:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXCass, Fulton, Mason, Menard, Tazewell47 min
Mar 15, 8:00 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNCarroll19 min
Mar 15, 8:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXLogan, Sangamon25 min
Mar 15, 8:05 PM CDTTornado WarningILXPeoria, Tazewell, Woodford25 min
Mar 15, 8:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXPeoria, Tazewell, Woodford46 min
Mar 15, 8:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTLaSalle, Livingston46 min
Mar 15, 8:33 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNWhiteside16 min
Mar 15, 8:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXLogan, McLean, Mason, Tazewell, Woodford42 min
Mar 15, 8:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXDeWitt, Logan, McLean23 min
Mar 15, 8:37 PM CDTTornado WarningLOTLee38 min
Mar 15, 8:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXMarshall, Woodford36 min
Mar 15, 8:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNBureau, Putnam35 min
Mar 15, 8:58 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNCarroll12 min
Mar 15, 9:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTGrundy, LaSalle, Livingston47 min
Mar 15, 9:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTFord, Iroquois, Livingston39 min
Mar 15, 9:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTLaSalle36 min
Mar 15, 9:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTDeKalb, Lee, Ogle32 min
Mar 15, 9:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTGrundy, Kendall, LaSalle, Will36 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 86 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2016-03-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2016-03-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 119 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-270 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
736 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
119 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
196 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

355 
WWUS20 KWNS 152029
SEL4  
SPC WW 152029
IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-160200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 44
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHEAST IOWA
  WESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
  NORTHEAST MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
  900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
    EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER
NORTHEAST MO AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INTENSE
SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
QUINCY ILLINOIS TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MARSEILLES
ILLINOIS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 15, 2:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Bureau, Carroll, Cass, Christian and 37 more66 min
Mar 15, 5:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Clay, Clinton, Crawford, Cumberland, Edwards and 21 more88 min
Mar 15, 6:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBureau, Cass, Fulton, Henry, Knox, Logan and 11 more91 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2016Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2016Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.