Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Lincoln, IL

326 
WWUS53 KILX 152354
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
654 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

ILC137-171-160015-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160316T0015Z/
SCOTT-MORGAN-
654 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT AND CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTIES...

AT 653 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
JACKSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WAS IN SOUTHEAST SCOTT COUNTY BETWEEN WINCHESTER AND
MANCHESTER...AND WAS CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE. 

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...ALEXANDER...MURRAYVILLE...WOODSON...MANCHESTER...
ALSEY...LITERBERRY...SOUTH JACKSONVILLE...GLASGOW...LYNNVILLE...
JACKSONVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...SINCLAIR...LAKE JACKSONVILLE...
NORTONVILLE AND PRENTICE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 58 AND 77.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
LINCOLN.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 3952 9050 3987 9020 3987 8999 3952 9009
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 239DEG 35KT 3974 9020 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GEELHART

002 
WWUS53 KILX 160004
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
704 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

ILC171-160013-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160316T0015Z/
SCOTT-
704 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 3972 9031 3985 9014 3987 8999 3959 9011
      3952 9030 3963 9031 3963 9030 3964 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 238DEG 33KT 3978 9011 

$$

ILC137-160015-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160316T0015Z/
MORGAN-
704 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY...

AT 703 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ALEXANDER...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 659 PM...A COOPERATIVE WEATHER
OBSERVER IN JACKSONVILLE REPORTED 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...MURRAYVILLE...WOODSON...SOUTH JACKSONVILLE...
JACKSONVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...LAKE JACKSONVILLE...SINCLAIR AND
PRENTICE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 61 AND 75.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
LINCOLN.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 3972 9031 3985 9014 3987 8999 3959 9011
      3952 9030 3963 9031 3963 9030 3964 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 238DEG 33KT 3978 9011 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GEELHART

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
643 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 997mb low over northeast Missouri,
with a warm front extending E/SE across south-central Illinois.
Despite the presence of this forcing, convection has not yet
materialized across Missouri or Illinois as the atmosphere remains
capped.  The short-wave trough that will eventually approach from
the west and break the cap is still well to the west across western
Kansas/Nebraska, so think cap will hold firm through the remainder
of the afternoon.  HRRR has been consistently showing scattered
thunderstorms developing along the trailing cold front across
eastern Missouri after 21z/4pm...with the activity then tracking
E/NE into central Illinois this evening.  4km WRF-NMM has similar
timing, and both high-res models suggest the storms will quickly
shift out of the KILX CWA by midnight.  Given strong directional low-
level wind shear in the vicinity of the warm front, the main mode of
any convection that develops later today will be supercellular.  As
such, damaging wind gusts and large hail remain the primary
threats...although a few tornadoes will also be possible mainly
along and northwest of the I-55 corridor.  Have therefore included
likely PoPs and mentioned severe weather across the western half of
the CWA this evening accordingly.  Any convection that fires will
rapidly push eastward out of the area by midnight, with only a few
lingering rain showers across the NW from the Peoria area northward
after midnight.  Once the storms pass, strong/gusty southwesterly
winds will develop, with forecast soundings and numeric guidance
suggesting gusts of 30-35 mph.  Overnight lows will drop into the
middle to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

Deepening surface low pressure forecast to push into central
Wisconsin by 12z Wednesday with a tight pressure gradient over most
of the forecast area during the day. Forecast soundings showing 40-
45 kts just off the surface tomorrow mid morning through the
afternoon hours so wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph look likely over
most of the area, except south of the Interstate 70 corridor. As
a result, a wind advisory will be issued for a good portion of
the forecast area for tomorrow. Areas north of I-74 will get close
to some warning criteria winds, especially if the wrap around
moisture/clouds stay to our north like most of the models suggest.
Despite the passage of the cold front this evening, temperatures
will be mild again on Wednesday, although not as warm as today.
Look for highs to climb into the 60s most areas.

The strong surface low will begin to fill across the lower Great
Lakes on Thursday as upper level energy is transferred over to the
East Coast. This will result in an elongated surface trof from the
new low off New England west through the southern Great Lakes.
This feature will gradually slide south bringing a more extensive
cloud band south with it and the threat for some light precip
starting on Friday night and continuing on and off into Saturday
night. We may see a mix of rain and snow across our north Friday
night into early Saturday morning, and possibly again late
Saturday night into Sunday. No accumulations are expected with any
snow that does occur across our north.

The upper trof will gradually work its way southeast across the
Great Lakes on Sunday and Monday with rather cool temperatures
prevailing, at least compared to what we have had over the past
couple of days. However, with the trof being more progressive, the
cool down will not last long as most medium range models suggest
the trof will shift off to our east by early next week with more
of a zonal flow developing over the Midwest resulting in a gradual
moderating trend through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

Main aviation forecast concern continues to be developing convection
this evening. Based on latest radar trends and HRRR run, have
included a TEMPO group for thunder and MVFR ceilings at KPIA/KSPI
between 00z and 02z...then further east to KBMI/KDEC between 01z
and 03z. Given uncertainties in areal coverage further east, have
only mentioned VCTS at KCMI after 02z. Once the storms pass, NAM
forecast soundings suggest a period of MVFR ceilings before skies
clear overnight into Wednesday morning. Winds will initially be
from the south-southeast with gusts to around 25kt this
evening, then will veer to the west-southwest after frontal
passage this evening. As the pressure gradient tightens, very
strong W/SW winds gusting to between 30 and 35kt will be likely on
Wednesday.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063.

&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
313 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-161100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-
SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
313 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY BETWEEN
6 PM AND 8 PM.

ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061>063-161100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SHELBY-VERMILION-
313 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY...PRIMARILY BETWEEN
7 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

ILZ066>068-071>073-161100-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
313 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
636 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             WINCHESTER              39.63N 90.46W
03/15/2016  M0.75 INCH       SCOTT              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

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