Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 217
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 15, 2016, 5:32 PM CDT for 27 counties in Illinois; 10 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 15, 2016, 5:32 PM CDT (22:32 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 15, 2016, 7:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 37 counties
Bond County, IL, Clay County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Perry County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Richland County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Saline County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Washington County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, City of Saint Louis, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Madison County, MO, Perry County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Washington County, MO
The radar
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 222 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 127 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -165 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 750 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 170 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 230 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted.
211
ACUS11 KWNS 152232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152232
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-160000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152232Z - 160000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THIS EVENING. WHILE THIS SCENARIO APPEARS
UNLIKELY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF
WW 44 AND/OR NEW WATCH ISSUANCE. ANY SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...A TORNADO OR TWO...AND
STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 22Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS A FIELD OF
DEVELOPING CU/TCU S/SW OF ST. LOUIS...GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND AN
EASTWARD-PROGRESSING SFC TROUGH. UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR AROUND 850-700 MB IS CONTRIBUTING
CONSIDERABLE MLCIN ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FAIRLY LIMITED...ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. AS SUCH...RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITHIN THIS FIELD OF CU IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. NONETHELESS...THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE SFC TROUGH...MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ONE OR TWO STRONG
UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SUCH CONVECTION WOULD BE ABLE
TO UTILIZE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000
J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS WOULD PROMOTE
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...AS WELL AS DYNAMIC PARCEL LIFTING TO
SUSTAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS FARTHER EAST INTO SOUTHERN IL...DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIR.
WHILE THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS QUITE CONDITIONAL...A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET AND A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT...WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL /CONSIDERING
AMPLE BUOYANCY ABOVE -10 C AND SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR/.
SATELLITE/RADAR OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MIGHT REQUIRE AREAL EXTENSION OF WW 44 OR NEW
WATCH ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 03/15/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38379084 38879085 38948948 39378837 39128756 38048789
37678869 37469032 37559074 37979092 38379084SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Brown, Bureau, Carroll, Cass, Christian and 37 more | 66 min |
| Mar 15, 3:31 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adams, Brown, Bureau, Calhoun, Carroll, Cass and 40 more | 7 hr |
| Mar 15, 6:29 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bureau, Cass, Fulton, Henry, Knox, Logan and 11 more | 91 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.