Alert archive / Colorado / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 143

May 7, 201613 counties in Colorado

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 7, 2016, 12:31 PM MDT for 13 counties in Colorado. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 7, 2016, 12:31 PM MDT (18:31 UTC)
Expired
May 7, 2016, 9:00 PM MDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO, Yuma County, CO

The radar

The Denver radar (KFTG), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
80%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

40 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 7, 12:55 PM MDTTornado WarningBOUElbert22 min
May 7, 1:14 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUArapahoe, Elbert31 min
May 7, 1:29 PM MDTTornado WarningBOUArapahoe, Elbert16 min
May 7, 1:43 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUAdams, Arapahoe32 min
May 7, 1:57 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDCheyenne, Kit Carson48 min
May 7, 2:08 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUArapahoe, Elbert52 min
May 7, 2:10 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUWeld35 min
May 7, 2:14 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUMorgan, Weld31 min
May 7, 2:17 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUAdams28 min
May 7, 2:26 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDCheyenne49 min
May 7, 2:31 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUMorgan, Weld29 min
May 7, 2:35 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUAdams, Arapahoe40 min
May 7, 2:39 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDKit Carson, Yuma51 min
May 7, 2:46 PM MDTTornado WarningBOUMorgan, Weld29 min
May 7, 3:03 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUWashington27 min
May 7, 3:12 PM MDTTornado WarningBOUMorgan, Weld33 min
May 7, 3:21 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDYuma39 min
May 7, 3:28 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDKit Carson37 min
May 7, 3:34 PM MDTTornado WarningBOUMorgan26 min
May 7, 3:36 PM MDTTornado Warning Tornado observedBOUWeld24 min
May 7, 3:54 PM MDTTornado WarningBOUWeld36 min
May 7, 3:57 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDYuma48 min
May 7, 3:58 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUAdams, Morgan32 min
May 7, 4:08 PM MDTTornado WarningGLDYuma23 min
May 7, 4:29 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDYuma46 min
May 7, 4:39 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUAdams, Morgan, Washington36 min
May 7, 4:45 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDYuma30 min
May 7, 4:56 PM MDTTornado WarningGLDYuma22 min
May 7, 5:11 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDYuma49 min
May 7, 5:17 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUWashington28 min
May 7, 5:30 PM MDTTornado WarningGLDYuma30 min
May 7, 5:44 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUPhillips31 min
May 7, 5:51 PM MDTTornado WarningGLDYuma24 min
May 7, 5:54 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUWashington36 min
May 7, 6:02 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDYuma43 min
May 7, 6:10 PM MDTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatGLDYuma35 min
May 7, 6:33 PM MDTTornado WarningGLDYuma27 min
May 7, 6:56 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUPhillips34 min
May 7, 6:58 PM MDTTornado WarningGLDYuma20 min
May 7, 7:07 PM MDTTornado WarningBOUPhillips38 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 35 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2016-05-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 5 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2016-05-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -38 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
5 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-219 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
776 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
64 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-38 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
163 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

362 
WWUS20 KWNS 071828
SEL3  
SPC WW 071828
COZ000-080100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTHEAST COLORADO

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM
  UNTIL 700 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
    EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST CO AND AFFECT THE WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.  SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIMON
COLORADO TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BURLINGTON COLORADO.  FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20025.


...HART

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 7, 11:29 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Arapahoe, Elbert, Kit Carson, Logan, Morgan and 5 more91 min
May 7, 4:23 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKit Carson, Logan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington and 1 more97 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Colorado, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.