Mesoscale Discussion 545

Issued

May 7, 2016, 11:29 AM MDT (17:29 UTC)

Expired

May 7, 2016, 1:00 PM MDT

In force

91 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

80%

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 143May 7, 12:30 PM MDT
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 144May 7, 2:25 PM MDT

036 
ACUS11 KWNS 071729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071729 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-071900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0545
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...EXTREME SE WY...FAR SW NEB...NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 071729Z - 071900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE
BETWEEN 19-20Z. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...BUILDING CU AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL CO.
ADDITIONAL CU DEVELOPMENT WAS EVIDENT NEAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF
ERODING STATUS FIELD SOUTH OF DEN. A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
STRETCHED W-E FROM NE CO ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER. MEANWHILE...A
DRYLINE WAS NOTED FROM ERN CO INTO FAR ERN NM/APPROACHING THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. THIS DRYLINE SHOULD SURGE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOWARD WESTERN KS. INITIAL STORM INITIATION WILL BE NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT/SFC LOW IN THE DEN VICINITY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING
BOTH ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM E-CNTRL CO INTO WRN KS AND ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NE CO INTO NW KS/SW NEB. 

DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO SUPERCELLS. LONG...STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS ABOVE THE LOWEST KM OR SO WILL SUPPORT SPLITTING STORMS
WITH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 DEG
C/KM PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WILL RESULT IN LARGE HAIL /PERHAPS SOME
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES/ BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL RESULT IN
HIGH-BASED CELLS WITH AN ACCOMPANY DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WHILE SETUP
IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES GIVEN THE DEARTH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ONE OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NE CO INTO
ADJACENT PARTS OF KS/NEB NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DEWPOINTS RESIDE.  A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MCD
AREA WITH A SECOND WATCH LIKELY NEEDED BY AROUND 21Z.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39039958 37410045 37100062 37110114 37290140 38080164
            38450185 38740232 38940290 39100350 39140402 39370449
            39600477 39960494 40740499 41070459 41260413 41330310
            41240210 40820096 40350028 39279970 39039958

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.