Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2016
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Sep 28, 2016, 3:13 PM EDT for Calvert County, Charles County, Saint Mary's County, Maryland; 58 counties in North Carolina; 80 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 28, 2016, 3:13 PM EDT (19:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 28, 2016, 10:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 141 counties
Calvert County, MD, Charles County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Anson County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Polk County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Union County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Albemarle County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Carroll County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Henry County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, Nelson County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, York County, VA
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 60%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 20%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
49 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 3:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Forsyth, Guilford | 41 min |
| Sep 28, 3:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Davie, Iredell, Rowan | 58 min |
| Sep 28, 3:32 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Caswell | 58 min |
| Sep 28, 3:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Craig, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke, City of Radford | 55 min |
| Sep 28, 3:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Cumberland, Harnett | 39 min |
| Sep 28, 3:38 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Goochland, Hanover, Henrico | 37 min |
| Sep 28, 3:42 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Caldwell | 33 min |
| Sep 28, 3:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Cumberland, Harnett, Johnston, Sampson | 50 min |
| Sep 28, 3:56 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Wilkes | 64 min |
| Sep 28, 4:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Forsyth, Guilford | 37 min |
| Sep 28, 4:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Nash, Wilson | 40 min |
| Sep 28, 4:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Botetourt, Franklin, Montgomery, Roanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem | 67 min |
| Sep 28, 4:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Hanover, King William | 33 min |
| Sep 28, 4:32 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Caswell | 58 min |
| Sep 28, 4:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Burke, Caldwell | 28 min |
| Sep 28, 4:38 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Chatham, Durham, Granville, Wake | 37 min |
| Sep 28, 4:52 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bedford, Botetourt, Roanoke | 53 min |
| Sep 28, 4:56 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Vance, Warren | 34 min |
| Sep 28, 4:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Guilford | 63 min |
| Sep 28, 5:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Mecklenburg | 42 min |
| Sep 28, 5:05 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RAH | Cumberland, Harnett, Hoke, Moore | 3 hr |
| Sep 28, 5:15 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Cumberland, Harnett | 33 min |
| Sep 28, 5:18 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Mecklenburg | 42 min |
| Sep 28, 5:28 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RAH | Guilford | 3 hr |
| Sep 28, 5:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Stokes, Surry, Yadkin | 65 min |
| Sep 28, 5:44 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, City of Lynchburg | 61 min |
| Sep 28, 5:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Caswell | 58 min |
| Sep 28, 5:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Alamance, Guilford | 42 min |
| Sep 28, 5:52 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Person | 38 min |
| Sep 28, 6:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Chesterfield, Henrico, City of Richmond | 47 min |
| Sep 28, 6:04 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Granville, Vance | 27 min |
| Sep 28, 6:10 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Essex, King and Queen, King William, Lancaster, Middlesex, Richmond | 65 min |
| Sep 28, 6:15 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RNK | Amherst, Bedford, City of Lynchburg | 30 min |
| Sep 28, 6:20 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Cabarrus, Mecklenburg, Union | 40 min |
| Sep 28, 6:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Granville, Person | 62 min |
| Sep 28, 6:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Alamance, Orange | 44 min |
| Sep 28, 6:42 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RNK | Amherst, Appomattox | 33 min |
| Sep 28, 7:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Appomattox, Buckingham | 53 min |
| Sep 28, 7:15 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Lancaster, Northumberland | 45 min |
| Sep 28, 7:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Cabarrus | 33 min |
| Sep 28, 7:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Davidson, Montgomery, Randolph, Stanly | 23 min |
| Sep 28, 7:38 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Davidson, Guilford | 26 min |
| Sep 28, 7:51 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RAH | Cumberland, Harnett, Hoke, Moore | 10 hr |
| Sep 28, 8:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bedford, Botetourt, Roanoke | 53 min |
| Sep 28, 8:15 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RAH | Alamance, Orange | 3 hr |
| Sep 28, 8:28 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RAH | Guilford | 3 hr |
| Sep 28, 8:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Cumberland, Fluvanna, Goochland, Louisa | 45 min |
| Sep 28, 8:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Appomattox, Campbell, Charlotte, Halifax, Pittsylvania | 25 min |
| Sep 28, 9:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Amherst, Bedford, Botetourt, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lynchburg | 52 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 63 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2684 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 13 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 19 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 4:41 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calvert, Charles, Dorchester, Saint Mary's, Talbot | 2 hr |
| Sep 28, 7:02 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calvert, Saint Mary's, Talbot | 88 min |
| Sep 28, 12:09 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Caswell, Durham, Franklin, Granville, Halifax, Nash and 5 more | 66 min |
| Sep 28, 2:44 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Caswell, Chatham, Davidson, Davie, Durham and 24 more | 91 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Carolina, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maryland, 2016Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.